{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Sweden",
  "publication": "IMF News, April 1, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/04/01/pr25083-sweden-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-sweden",
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  "summary": "Real GDP is expected to pick up to 1.9 percent in 2025 and further in 2026 to 2.2 percent. Inflation is expected to remain anchored around the 2 percent target.",
  "publishDate": "2025-04-01",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic outlook",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth\n  - 2024: 1.0 percent\n  - 2025: 1.9 percent\n  - 2026: 2.2 percent\n- Inflation\n  - Consumer price inflation (average)\n    - 2024: 2.0 percent\n    - 2025: 2.1 percent\n  - Consumer price inflation (end-of-period)\n    - 2024: 1.8 percent\n  - Inflation is expected to remain anchored around the 2 percent target over the forecast horizon.\n- Labor market\n  - Unemployment rate\n    - 2024: 8.4 percent\n    - 2025: 8.2 percent\n    - 2026: 8.0 percent\n- Outlook narrative\n  - After contracting in 2023, economic activity started to recover in 2024 (1 percent).\n  - Growth is expected to pick up in 2025 and 2026 on the back of policy support and converge to potential GDP growth (1½–1¾ percent) over the medium-term.\n  - Monetary policy has reached a neutral stance while fiscal policy is projected to be moderately expansionary amid subdued levels of private domestic demand and a still-negative output gap."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and vulnerabilities",
      "content": "- Balance of risks to the growth outlook is tilted to the downside, including:\n  - Geoeconomic fragmentation, trade uncertainty, and escalating protectionism.\n  - Weakness in private consumption.\n- Risks to inflation are double-sided.\n- Financial sector\n  - The financial system is sound and buffers are robust, but vulnerabilities persist.\n  - Downside risks to financial stability have subsided somewhat.\n  - Elevated systemic risks from high household debt and large bank exposures to commercial real estate were highlighted."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy assessment and recommendations",
      "content": "- Fiscal policy\n  - Directors agreed the moderately expansionary fiscal stance envisioned in the 2025 budget is appropriate.\n  - Substantial available fiscal space allows for targeted policy support should downside risks materialize.\n  - Fiscal policy should prioritize measures to:\n    - Enhance growth and resilience.\n    - Facilitate the green transition.\n    - Further enhance inclusion.\n  - Noting rising fiscal pressures related to aging, climate change, and defense, Directors recommended broadening the coverage of the fiscal sustainability report to support policy formulation.\n- Monetary policy\n  - Directors commended Riksbank’s effective and clearly communicated monetary policy response with price pressures broadly under control.\n  - The current neutral monetary policy stance remains appropriate.\n  - Recommended that monetary policy should remain agile and data dependent, given high uncertainty and double‑sided risks to inflation.\n- Financial sector policy\n  - Directors encouraged authorities to remain vigilant and further strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks.\n  - Recommended maintaining Borrower‑Based‑Measures to preserve macro‑financial resilience.\n  - Encouraged reforms in housing, rental markets, and tax policy to address housing affordability challenges.\n  - Commended progress on implementing the 2023 FSAP recommendations and encouraged continued efforts to strengthen systemic risk assessment and analysis.\n- Structural reforms\n  - Directors welcomed the authorities’ focus on raising labor productivity.\n  - Encouraged adoption of reforms to:\n    - Simplify regulations.\n    - Enhance education outcomes.\n    - Support labor mobility.\n    - Further deepen Research and Development.\n  - Measures to strengthen the EU single market and further efforts to achieve Sweden’s ambitious climate agenda are important."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic indicators (Table 1 highlights)",
      "content": "- Output\n  - Real GDP growth (percent)\n    - 2024: 1.0\n    - 2025: 1.9\n    - 2026: 2.2\n- Employment\n  - Unemployment rate (percent)\n    - 2024: 8.4\n    - 2025: 8.2\n    - 2026: 8.0\n- Prices\n  - Consumer price inflation (average, percent)\n    - 2024: 2.0\n    - 2025: 2.1\n  - Consumer price inflation (end-of-period, percent)\n    - 2024: 1.8\n- Public Finances (General Government)\n  - Total revenue (percent of GDP)\n    - 2024: 47.6\n    - 2025: 47.7\n    - 2026: 47.5\n  - Total expenditure (percent of GDP)\n    - 2024: 49.3\n    - 2025: 49.1\n    - 2026: 48.2\n  - Net lending (percent of GDP)\n    - 2024: -1.7\n    - 2025: -1.4\n    - 2026: -0.7\n  - Structural balance (percent of potential GDP)\n    - 2024: -0.8\n    - 2025: -1.1\n    - 2026: -0.6\n  - Gross debt (percent of GDP)\n    - 2024: 32.6\n    - 2025: 33.7\n    - 2026: 33.9\n- Money and Credit\n  - Broad money (M3) (percent change)\n    - 2024: 0.5\n    - 2025: …\n  - Bank lending to households\n    - 2024: 0.8\n    - 2025: 4.0\n    - 2026: 4.2\n  - Repo rate/Central Bank rate\n    - 2024: 2.8\n- Balance of Payments\n  - Current account (percent of GDP)\n    - 2024: 7.4\n    - 2025: 6.8\n    - 2026: 6.0\n  - FDI (percent of GDP)\n    - 2024: 1.5\n    - 2025: 2.6\n    - 2026: 2.5\n  - Reserves (months imports): (not reported in table)\n  - Exchange Rate (period average): (not reported in table)\n  - REER (\"-\" depreciation in percent)\n    - 2024: -1.5\n\nPress Release No. 25/083, April 1, 2025 — IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Sweden\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Sweden and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/Sweden\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/04/01/pr25083-sweden-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-sweden"
    }
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    "Published: April 1, 2025",
    "Real GDP growth",
    "Inflation",
    "Labor market",
    "Outlook narrative",
    "Balance of risks to the growth outlook is tilted to the downside, including:",
    "Risks to inflation are double-sided.",
    "Financial sector",
    "Fiscal policy",
    "Monetary policy",
    "Financial sector policy",
    "Structural reforms",
    "Output",
    "Employment",
    "Prices",
    "Public Finances (General Government)",
    "Money and Credit",
    "Balance of Payments",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Sweden and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SWE/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/Sweden](http://www.imf.org/Sweden)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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