## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Sweden _IMF News, April 1, 2025_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Sweden](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/04/01/pr25083-sweden-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-sweden) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/04/01/pr25083-sweden-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-sweden/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/04/01/pr25083-sweden-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-sweden/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/04/01/pr25083-sweden-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-sweden/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 1, 2025 --- ### Economic outlook - Real GDP growth - 2024: 1.0 percent - 2025: 1.9 percent - 2026: 2.2 percent - Inflation - Consumer price inflation (average) - 2024: 2.0 percent - 2025: 2.1 percent - Consumer price inflation (end-of-period) - 2024: 1.8 percent - Inflation is expected to remain anchored around the 2 percent target over the forecast horizon. - Labor market - Unemployment rate - 2024: 8.4 percent - 2025: 8.2 percent - 2026: 8.0 percent - Outlook narrative - After contracting in 2023, economic activity started to recover in 2024 (1 percent). - Growth is expected to pick up in 2025 and 2026 on the back of policy support and converge to potential GDP growth (1½–1¾ percent) over the medium-term. - Monetary policy has reached a neutral stance while fiscal policy is projected to be moderately expansionary amid subdued levels of private domestic demand and a still-negative output gap. ### Risks and vulnerabilities - Balance of risks to the growth outlook is tilted to the downside, including: - Geoeconomic fragmentation, trade uncertainty, and escalating protectionism. - Weakness in private consumption. - Risks to inflation are double-sided. - Financial sector - The financial system is sound and buffers are robust, but vulnerabilities persist. - Downside risks to financial stability have subsided somewhat. - Elevated systemic risks from high household debt and large bank exposures to commercial real estate were highlighted. ### Policy assessment and recommendations - Fiscal policy - Directors agreed the moderately expansionary fiscal stance envisioned in the 2025 budget is appropriate. - Substantial available fiscal space allows for targeted policy support should downside risks materialize. - Fiscal policy should prioritize measures to: - Enhance growth and resilience. - Facilitate the green transition. - Further enhance inclusion. - Noting rising fiscal pressures related to aging, climate change, and defense, Directors recommended broadening the coverage of the fiscal sustainability report to support policy formulation. - Monetary policy - Directors commended Riksbank’s effective and clearly communicated monetary policy response with price pressures broadly under control. - The current neutral monetary policy stance remains appropriate. - Recommended that monetary policy should remain agile and data dependent, given high uncertainty and double‑sided risks to inflation. - Financial sector policy - Directors encouraged authorities to remain vigilant and further strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks. - Recommended maintaining Borrower‑Based‑Measures to preserve macro‑financial resilience. - Encouraged reforms in housing, rental markets, and tax policy to address housing affordability challenges. - Commended progress on implementing the 2023 FSAP recommendations and encouraged continued efforts to strengthen systemic risk assessment and analysis. - Structural reforms - Directors welcomed the authorities’ focus on raising labor productivity. - Encouraged adoption of reforms to: - Simplify regulations. - Enhance education outcomes. - Support labor mobility. - Further deepen Research and Development. - Measures to strengthen the EU single market and further efforts to achieve Sweden’s ambitious climate agenda are important. ### Selected economic indicators (Table 1 highlights) - Output - Real GDP growth (percent) - 2024: 1.0 - 2025: 1.9 - 2026: 2.2 - Employment - Unemployment rate (percent) - 2024: 8.4 - 2025: 8.2 - 2026: 8.0 - Prices - Consumer price inflation (average, percent) - 2024: 2.0 - 2025: 2.1 - Consumer price inflation (end-of-period, percent) - 2024: 1.8 - Public Finances (General Government) - Total revenue (percent of GDP) - 2024: 47.6 - 2025: 47.7 - 2026: 47.5 - Total expenditure (percent of GDP) - 2024: 49.3 - 2025: 49.1 - 2026: 48.2 - Net lending (percent of GDP) - 2024: -1.7 - 2025: -1.4 - 2026: -0.7 - Structural balance (percent of potential GDP) - 2024: -0.8 - 2025: -1.1 - 2026: -0.6 - Gross debt (percent of GDP) - 2024: 32.6 - 2025: 33.7 - 2026: 33.9 - Money and Credit - Broad money (M3) (percent change) - 2024: 0.5 - 2025: … - Bank lending to households - 2024: 0.8 - 2025: 4.0 - 2026: 4.2 - Repo rate/Central Bank rate - 2024: 2.8 - Balance of Payments - Current account (percent of GDP) - 2024: 7.4 - 2025: 6.8 - 2026: 6.0 - FDI (percent of GDP) - 2024: 1.5 - 2025: 2.6 - 2026: 2.5 - Reserves (months imports): (not reported in table) - Exchange Rate (period average): (not reported in table) - REER ("-" depreciation in percent) - 2024: -1.5 *Press Release No. 25/083, April 1, 2025 — IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Sweden* --- ## References - [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg) - [The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx) - [Sweden and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SWE/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [www.imf.org/Sweden](http://www.imf.org/Sweden) - [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/04/01/pr25083-sweden-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-sweden_