## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Greece _IMF News, April 4, 2025_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Greece](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/04/04/pr2589-greece-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/04/04/pr2589-greece-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/04/04/pr2589-greece-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/04/04/pr2589-greece-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 4, 2025 --- ### Overview - The Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation with Greece on March 31, 2025. - Greece's near-term economic outlook is described as favorable with continued robust expansion of real GDP. ### Near-term outlook and projections - Real GDP growth: - 2024: 2.3 percent (est.) - 2025: 2.1 percent (proj.) - 2026: 1.9 percent - Drivers: - Investment remains a key driver, supported by NGEU-funded projects. - Private consumption growth underpinned by favorable employment and income growth. - Inflation: - CPI inflation (period avg., percent): 2024: 3.0; 2025: 2.5 - Headline inflation expected to resume downward trend with stabilizing global energy prices. - Core inflation expected to be more persistent due to services inflation and wage growth. ### Banking system and financial sector resilience - Non-Performing Loan ratio in systemically important banks: around 3 percent. - Banks have: - Sustained high profits. - Issued capital instruments that have boosted capital adequacy. - Liquidity and funding buffers well above prudential requirements and the EU average. - Policy guidance from Directors: - Close monitoring of risks associated with accelerating credit growth and credit exposure. - Activation of a positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer and borrower-based measures for mortgage loan borrowers welcomed. - Recommendation to calibrate macroprudential toolkits to align with emerging risks. - Elevated bank profits should be primarily utilized to enhance capital buffers and loss-absorption capacity. ### Public finances and debt sustainability - Public finance indicators (percent of GDP): - Revenue: 2024: 49.2; 2025: 49.4; 2026: 49.8 - Expenditure: 2024: 49.5; 2025: 49.9; 2026: 49.8 - Overall balance: 2024: -0.3; 2025: -0.5; 2026: -0.6 - Primary balance: 2024: 2.9; 2025: 2.4 - Public debt 1/: 2024: 150.8; 2025: 142.4; 2026: 138.0 - Directors’ recommendations: - Maintain primary surpluses above 2 percent of GDP in the medium term to enhance debt sustainability and build buffers. - Prioritize public investment, including for the green transition and energy security. - Improve social expenditure efficiency and contain spending pressures, especially on pensions and public-sector wages. - Continue reforms that reduce tax evasion (noted as contributing to strong revenue performance). ### Structural reforms and growth-enhancing policies - Directors highlight remaining crisis legacies and structural imbalances as impediments to medium-term growth. - Recommended structural priorities: - Raise labor force participation, particularly for women. - Cultivate a better-skilled workforce. - Reduce regulatory burdens and barriers to entry for firms, especially in services. - Advance judicial system reforms to address crisis legacy debt and enhance business dynamism and productivity. - Continue progress in green and digital transitions to support energy security and productivity. ### Risks to outlook - Risks to growth: balanced. - Potential headwinds: growth slowdown in major euro area countries; deterioration of regional conflicts; global policy uncertainty. - Acceleration of ambitious structural reforms could improve growth prospects. - Risks to inflation: tilted upward. - Stronger- and more persistent-than-expected wage growth could further fuel services inflation. - Fluctuations in global and regional energy prices could exacerbate inflation pressures. ### Key statistics and memorandum items - Population (millions): 10.4 - Per capita GDP (€'000): 22.9 - IMF quota (millions of SDRs): 2,428.9 - Literacy rate (percent): 97.9 - (Percent of total): 0.51 - Poverty rate (percent): 26.1 - Main products and exports: tourism and shipping services; food and beverages; industrial products; petroleum and chemicals. - Key export markets: EU (Italy, Germany, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Spain), Turkey, Lebanon, USA, UK. - GHG emissions per capita (tons of CO2 equivalent): 6.3 - Balance of payments (percent of GDP): - Current account 2/: 2024: -6.9; 2025: -6.6; 2026: -6.1 - FDI: 2024: -1.8; 2025: -1.6 - External debt: 2024: 238.9; 2025: 232.5; 2026: 227.1 - Exchange rate: - REER (percent change) 3/: 2024: 0.0 - Memorandum item: - Nominal GDP (billions of euros): 2024: 237.6; 2025: 248.4; 2026: 258.7 *Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Greece (April 4, 2025).* --- ## References - [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg) - [The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx) - [Greece and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GRC/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/04/04/pr2589-greece-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation_