{ "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Guyana", "publication": "IMF News, May 7, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md", "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana", "publishDate": "2025-05-07", "sections": [ { "heading": "Summary assessment", "content": "- The Executive Board concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana and welcomed Guyana’s rapid economic transformation supported by expanding oil production and strong non-oil output.\n- Guyana attained high-income status and has a highly favorable economic outlook with risks assessed as broadly balanced.\n- The Board commended the authorities’ commitment to balancing development needs with prudent macroeconomic and fiscal policies, including efforts to strengthen public financial management, governance, anti-corruption, official statistics, AML/CFT frameworks, fiscal transparency, and transparency in extractive industries." }, { "heading": "2022–2024 performance and recent developments", "content": "- Real GDP averaged 47 percent per year since 2022, the highest real GDP growth rate in the world.\n- Real oil GDP increased by nearly 58 percent in 2024.\n- Real non-oil GDP expanded over 13 percent in 2024, reflecting broad-based performance across sectors.\n- Inflation reached 2.9 percent by end-2024, up from 2 percent at end-2023, driven largely by higher food prices (affected by international food prices and earlier floods).\n- The overall fiscal deficit widened from 5.1 percent of GDP (11.7 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2022 to 7.3 percent of GDP (21 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2024, reflecting a large increase in capital expenditure.\n- Guyana’s current account surplus more than doubled in 2024, reaching about 24½ percent of GDP, driven by higher oil exports.\n- By end-2024, gross international reserves surpassed US$1 billion.\n- The Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated over US$1.1 billion in 2024, reaching US$3.1 billion (over 12½ percent of GDP)." }, { "heading": "Outlook and projections", "content": "- The economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth.\n- Real non-oil GDP growth is expected to average 6¾ percent over the medium term, about 3 percentage points higher than the pre-oil decade average.\n- Inflation is projected to edge up to around 4 percent in 2025.\n- The overall fiscal deficit and the current account surplus are expected to narrow in 2025.\n- Over the medium term, continued expansion of oil production will further strengthen the external position, with substantial savings accumulation in the NRF." }, { "heading": "Risks to the outlook", "content": "- Upside risks: additional oil discoveries; productivity-enhancing investments including to strengthen energy resilience; expanded construction activity supporting higher short-term non-oil GDP growth.\n- Downside risks: overheating pressures that could lead to higher inflation and a real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with balanced expansion; commodity price volatility; trade policy and climate shocks that could adversely affect inflation and the macroeconomic outlook." }, { "heading": "Executive Directors’ policy messages and recommendations", "content": "- Fiscal policy\n - The current fiscal stance is appropriate given development needs.\n - Authorities committed to eliminate the overall fiscal deficit over the medium term and further narrow the non-oil primary deficit to levels consistent with intergenerational equity and fiscal and macroeconomic sustainability.\n - Need for a comprehensive medium-term fiscal framework with an explicit anchor and an operational target, along with regular assessments of expenditure related to reaching development objectives.\n - Support for continued efforts to strengthen public financial management; low risk of debt distress noted given low public debt.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy\n - Monetary policy stance considered appropriately tight to help contain inflation; further tightening may be needed if inflation risks escalate.\n - Merit in enhancing the monetary policy toolkit and deepening financial markets to strengthen monetary policy transmission.\n - Maintain consistent policies to support the stabilized exchange rate arrangement, which remains appropriate; assess whether transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime over the medium term could be beneficial as the economy transforms.\n- Financial stability and supervision\n - Support for maintaining financial stability and enhancing financial supervision, including monitoring sectoral lending exposures and related-party lending.\n - Support for strengthening risk monitoring, the macroprudential framework, broadening regulatory coverage, and enhancing statistics on balance sheets and real estate prices.\n- Structural and governance priorities\n - Support for fostering inclusive growth and economic diversification, improving the business environment, strengthening climate and energy resilience, and enhancing labor market skills.\n - Commended progress and supported continued efforts to strengthen governance, anti-corruption, official statistics, AML/CFT frameworks, fiscal transparency, and transparency in extractive industries in line with international standards." }, { "heading": "Key statistics (selected, preserved exactly as in source)", "content": "- Population, 2023 (thousands): 814\n- Life expectancy at birth (years), 2022: 66\n- Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births), 2023: 14\n- Human Development Index rank, 2022: 95\n\n- Real GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 33.8; 2024: 43.6; 2025: 10.3\n- Real non-oil GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 12.3; 2024: 13.1; 2025: 12.9\n- Real oil GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 46.8; 2024: 57.7; 2025: 9.5\n- Consumer prices (end of period): 2023: 2.0; 2024: 2.9; 2025: 4.2\n\nCentral Government (percent of non-oil GDP)\n- Revenue: 2023: 39.3; 2024: 43.7; 2025: 49.9\n- Grants: 2023: 0.2; 2024: 0.4\n- Expenditure: 2023: 52.7; 2024: 64.9; 2025: 63.4\n- Current: 2023: 25.1; 2024: 28.9; 2025: 30.5\n- Capital: 2023: 27.7; 2024: 36.0; 2025: 32.9\n- Overall balance (after grants): 2023: -13.3; 2024: -21.0; 2025: -13.2\n- Non-oil primary balance (after grants): 2023: -26.2; 2024: -38.4; 2025: -37.5\n\n(percent of GDP)\n- [Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 17.0; 15.3; 18.6\n- [Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 0.1; 22.8; 22.6; 23.7\n- [Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 10.8; 10.1; 11.4\n- [Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 12.0; 12.6; -5.7; -7.3; -4.9\n\n- Total public sector gross debt: 2023: 26.7; 2024: 24.3; 2025: 28.0\n- External: 2023: 10.5; 2024: 9.0; 2025: 13.6\n- Domestic: 2023: 16.2; 2024: 15.2; 2025: 14.4\n\nMoney and Credit\n- Broad money: 2023: 27.6; 2024: 25.3; 2025: 17.7\n- Domestic credit of the banking system: 2023: 24.1; 2024: 39.7; 2025: 4.9\n\nExternal Sector\n- Current account balance (US$ million): 2023: 1,679.9; 2024: 6,067.9; 2025: 2,306.2\n- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: 9.9; 2024: 24.6; 2025: 8.9\n- Gross official reserves (US$ million): 2023: 896.4; 2024: 1,010.1; 2025: 1,571.4\n- Gross official reserves (months of imports): 2023: 5.3; 2024: 4.1; 2025: 6.1\n- Crude oil production (million barrels): 2023: 142.3; 2024: 225.4; 2025: 246.0\n\nMemorandum Items\n- Nominal GDP (GY$ billion): 2023: 3,527.5; 2024: 5,141.3; 2025: 5,383.9\n- Nominal non-oil GDP (GY$ billion): 2023: 1,524.6; 2024: 1,793.7; 2025: 2,010.7\n- GDP per capita (US$): 2023: 21,307.2; 2024: 30,962.3; 2025: 32,326.3\n- Guyana dollar/U.S. dollar (period average): 2023: 208.5\n\nIMF Executive Board press release, May 7, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Guyana and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: May 7, 2025", "The Executive Board concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana and welcomed Guyana’s rapid economic transformation supported by expanding oil production and strong non-oil output.", "Guyana attained high-income status and has a highly favorable economic outlook with risks assessed as broadly balanced.", "The Board commended the authorities’ commitment to balancing development needs with prudent macroeconomic and fiscal policies, including efforts to strengthen public financial management, governance, anti-corruption, official statistics, AML/CFT frameworks, fiscal transparency, and transparency in extractive industries.", "Real GDP averaged 47 percent per year since 2022, the highest real GDP growth rate in the world.", "Real oil GDP increased by nearly 58 percent in 2024.", "Real non-oil GDP expanded over 13 percent in 2024, reflecting broad-based performance across sectors.", "Inflation reached 2.9 percent by end-2024, up from 2 percent at end-2023, driven largely by higher food prices (affected by international food prices and earlier floods).", "The overall fiscal deficit widened from 5.1 percent of GDP (11.7 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2022 to 7.3 percent of GDP (21 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2024, reflecting a large increase in capital expenditure.", "Guyana’s current account surplus more than doubled in 2024, reaching about 24½ percent of GDP, driven by higher oil exports.", "By end-2024, gross international reserves surpassed US$1 billion.", "The Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated over US$1.1 billion in 2024, reaching US$3.1 billion (over 12½ percent of GDP).", "The economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth.", "Real non-oil GDP growth is expected to average 6¾ percent over the medium term, about 3 percentage points higher than the pre-oil decade average.", "Inflation is projected to edge up to around 4 percent in 2025.", "The overall fiscal deficit and the current account surplus are expected to narrow in 2025.", "Over the medium term, continued expansion of oil production will further strengthen the external position, with substantial savings accumulation in the NRF.", "Upside risks: additional oil discoveries; productivity-enhancing investments including to strengthen energy resilience; expanded construction activity supporting higher short-term non-oil GDP growth.", "Downside risks: overheating pressures that could lead to higher inflation and a real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with balanced expansion; commodity price volatility; trade policy and climate shocks that could adversely affect inflation and the macroeconomic outlook.", "Fiscal policy", "Monetary and exchange rate policy", "Financial stability and supervision", "Structural and governance priorities", "Population, 2023 (thousands): 814", "Life expectancy at birth (years), 2022: 66", "Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births), 2023: 14", "Human Development Index rank, 2022: 95", "Real GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 33.8; 2024: 43.6; 2025: 10.3", "Real non-oil GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 12.3; 2024: 13.1; 2025: 12.9", "Real oil GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 46.8; 2024: 57.7; 2025: 9.5", "Consumer prices (end of period): 2023: 2.0; 2024: 2.9; 2025: 4.2", "Revenue: 2023: 39.3; 2024: 43.7; 2025: 49.9", "Grants: 2023: 0.2; 2024: 0.4", "Expenditure: 2023: 52.7; 2024: 64.9; 2025: 63.4", "Current: 2023: 25.1; 2024: 28.9; 2025: 30.5", "Capital: 2023: 27.7; 2024: 36.0; 2025: 32.9", "Overall balance (after grants): 2023: -13.3; 2024: -21.0; 2025: -13.2", "Non-oil primary balance (after grants): 2023: -26.2; 2024: -38.4; 2025: -37.5", "[Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 17.0; 15.3; 18.6", "[Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 0.1; 22.8; 22.6; 23.7", "[Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 10.8; 10.1; 11.4", "[Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 12.0; 12.6; -5.7; -7.3; -4.9", "Total public sector gross debt: 2023: 26.7; 2024: 24.3; 2025: 28.0", "External: 2023: 10.5; 2024: 9.0; 2025: 13.6", "Domestic: 2023: 16.2; 2024: 15.2; 2025: 14.4", "Broad money: 2023: 27.6; 2024: 25.3; 2025: 17.7", "Domestic credit of the banking system: 2023: 24.1; 2024: 39.7; 2025: 4.9", "Current account balance (US$ million): 2023: 1,679.9; 2024: 6,067.9; 2025: 2,306.2", "Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: 9.9; 2024: 24.6; 2025: 8.9", "Gross official reserves (US$ million): 2023: 896.4; 2024: 1,010.1; 2025: 1,571.4", "Gross official reserves (months of imports): 2023: 5.3; 2024: 4.1; 2025: 6.1", "Crude oil production (million barrels): 2023: 142.3; 2024: 225.4; 2025: 246.0", "Nominal GDP (GY$ billion): 2023: 3,527.5; 2024: 5,141.3; 2025: 5,383.9", "Nominal non-oil GDP (GY$ billion): 2023: 1,524.6; 2024: 1,793.7; 2025: 2,010.7", "GDP per capita (US$): 2023: 21,307.2; 2024: 30,962.3; 2025: 32,326.3", "Guyana dollar/U.S. dollar (period average): 2023: 208.5", "[Guyana and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GUY/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T03:51:19.940Z" }