{ "title": "IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit to Oman", "publication": "IMF News, June 2, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit/index.md", "summary": "A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Mr. César Serra, visited Muscat, Oman, during May 21-29, 2025, to discuss economic and financial developments, the outlook, and the country’s policy priorities", "publishDate": "2025-06-02", "sections": [ { "heading": "Mission overview", "content": "- A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Mr. César Serra, visited Muscat, Oman, during May 21-29, 2025, to discuss economic and financial developments, the outlook, and the country’s policy priorities.\n- End-of-Mission press release conveying preliminary findings; views are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion." }, { "heading": "Macroeconomic performance and outlook", "content": "- Real GDP growth:\n - 2023: 1.2 percent\n - 2024: 1.7 percent\n - Projected 2025: 2.4 percent\n - Projected 2026: 3.7 percent\n- Drivers of growth:\n - Strengthened nonhydrocarbon activity, notably in manufacturing and services.\n - Ongoing investments in logistics, manufacturing, renewable energy, and tourism.\n - Phase-out of OPEC+ curbs expected to support medium-term expansion.\n- Inflation:\n - 2024: 0.6 percent\n - January–April 2025 (year-over-year): 0.9 percent\n - Overall characterization: inflation remains low." }, { "heading": "Fiscal and external positions", "content": "- Fiscal balance:\n - Fiscal surplus in 2024: 3.3 percent of GDP (noted as lower-than-previously estimated due to accelerated investments and lower dividends from Energy Development Oman).\n - Projected average fiscal surplus during 2025–2026: 0.5 percent of GDP\n - Medium-term: surplus expected to increase, supported by oil production resumption and continued fiscal reforms.\n- Public and SOE debt:\n - Central government debt: 35.5 percent of GDP in 2024 (down from 37.5 percent in 2023).\n - State-owned enterprises (SOE) debt: around 31 percent of GDP in 2024.\n- External balance:\n - Current account balance: surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP in 2024.\n - Projected average current account balance in 2025–2026: deficit of about 2 percent of GDP.\n - Conditional outlook: return to surplus expected thereafter if oil production gradually rises to capacity.\n- Factors weighing on fiscal and external positions: lower oil prices and softer growth in nonhydrocarbon exports." }, { "heading": "Financial sector and credit conditions", "content": "- Banking sector soundness:\n - Supported by strong asset quality, ample capital and liquidity ratios, and sustained profitability.\n - Banks’ net foreign asset position remains positive.\n - Private sector credit growth continues to be strong, underpinned by an expanding deposit base.\n- Risks to liquidity and credit:\n - Higher-for-longer global interest rates and tighter-than-expected domestic liquidity—from subdued hydrocarbon revenues—could increase borrowing costs and reduce credit to the private sector." }, { "heading": "Risks and scenario considerations", "content": "- Downside risks (tilted to the downside):\n - Direct impact of global trade tensions expected to be limited given Oman’s modest exports to the U.S., but indirect effects could be more pronounced.\n - Persistently high global uncertainty may dampen oil demand and prices, potentially triggering an extension of oil production cuts and sustained lower hydrocarbon proceeds.\n - Weaker hydrocarbon proceeds would weaken growth and fiscal and external positions.\n - Higher global interest rates and tighter domestic liquidity could further slow nonhydrocarbon growth.\n- Upside scenario:\n - Accelerated reform implementation under Oman Vision 2040 would strengthen Oman’s outlook." }, { "heading": "Structural reforms and policy implementation", "content": "- Tax and administration:\n - Oman Tax Authority making steady progress on its Tax Administration Modernization Program.\n- Monetary and liquidity management:\n - Central Bank of Oman (CBO) further refining its liquidity management framework.\n- Financial development:\n - Financial development agenda proceeding with initiatives to expand access to finance.\n- SOE reforms and investment vehicles:\n - SOE reforms advancing with tangible improvements in governance, profitability, and risk management.\n - Future Fund Oman has launched operations, with numerous projects selected for funding and substantial capital mobilized from private sector investors.\n- Energy and diversification:\n - Efforts to develop the renewable energy sector are underway, including work to foster green hydrogen investment and production.\n - The 11th Five-Year Development Plan for 2026-2030 is being finalized with the overarching goal of accelerating economic diversification." }, { "heading": "Concluding remarks", "content": "- IMF staff thanked Omani authorities and other counterparts for open and productive discussions and warm hospitality.\n- Mission contact: Mr. César Serra led the IMF staff team during May 21-29, 2025.\n\nStatement issued by IMF staff at the conclusion of the May 21-29, 2025 mission to Muscat, Oman.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Oman and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: June 2, 2025", "A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Mr. César Serra, visited Muscat, Oman, during May 21-29, 2025, to discuss economic and financial developments, the outlook, and the country’s policy priorities.", "End-of-Mission press release conveying preliminary findings; views are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.", "Real GDP growth:", "Drivers of growth:", "Inflation:", "Fiscal balance:", "Public and SOE debt:", "External balance:", "Factors weighing on fiscal and external positions: lower oil prices and softer growth in nonhydrocarbon exports.", "Banking sector soundness:", "Risks to liquidity and credit:", "Downside risks (tilted to the downside):", "Upside scenario:", "Tax and administration:", "Monetary and liquidity management:", "Financial development:", "SOE reforms and investment vehicles:", "Energy and diversification:", "IMF staff thanked Omani authorities and other counterparts for open and productive discussions and warm hospitality.", "Mission contact: Mr. César Serra led the IMF staff team during May 21-29, 2025.", "[Oman and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/OMN/index.htm)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/06/02/pr-25172-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T03:54:27.594Z" }