## IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to Turkmenistan _IMF News, June 10, 2025_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to Turkmenistan](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr-25190-turkmenistan-imf-completes-2025-article-iv-mission) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr-25190-turkmenistan-imf-completes-2025-article-iv-mission/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr-25190-turkmenistan-imf-completes-2025-article-iv-mission/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr-25190-turkmenistan-imf-completes-2025-article-iv-mission/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: June 10, 2025 --- ### Mission purpose and context - IMF mission led by Ms. Anna Bordon visited Ashgabat during May 21-June 3, 2025 to review financial developments, economic outlook, risks, and policies aimed at promoting diverse, inclusive, and sustainable growth. - Mission met with senior government officials, representatives of the private and financial sectors, and the diplomatic community. - End-of-mission statement conveys preliminary IMF staff findings; views are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the IMF’s Executive Board. ### Recent performance and near-term outlook - Growth and inflation - Growth slowed to 3.0 percent in 2024 from 4.5 percent in 2023, owing to weak hydrocarbon exports. - Inflation decelerated from 3.8 percent at end 2024 to 1.1 percent in March 2025 owing to a sharp slowdown in food inflation combined with deflation in non-food items and low inflation in services. - Looking ahead, economy is expected to expand at around 2.3 percent in 2025 and over the medium term. - Inflation is projected to pick up gradually over the medium term, returning to its recent historical average of 8 percent, driven primarily by the long-standing policy of increasing public sector wages and pensions by 10 percent annually. - External sector and trade - Current account surplus narrowed from 5.9 percent of GDP in 2023 to 4.4 percent in 2024. - Hydrocarbon exports growth is expected to be negative in 2025, but to gradually pick up to around 2 percent over the medium term. - External position is projected to gradually deteriorate, shifting from a surplus to a deficit, driven by lower hydrocarbon prices, declining oil exports, and an overvalued currency. Rising wages are expected to fuel import demand. ### Fiscal developments and public finances - Nonhydrocarbon primary balance improved in 2024, with higher revenues more than offsetting an increase in capital spending. - Deficit trajectory - The nonhydrocarbon deficit is anticipated to narrow further over the medium term, with capital spending expected to moderate. - Fiscal management priorities - Improve spending efficiency and public investment management. - Transition towards performance-based public wage increases. - Reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to manage fiscal risks and enhance fiscal transparency. - Strengthen fiscal reporting and public financial management (PFM), including: expedite implementation of medium-term budgeting, establish a single treasury account, and expand fiscal reporting coverage. ### Monetary, financial sector, and exchange rate policy - Central Bank of Turkmenistan (CBT) recommendations - Focus on price and financial stability. - Modernize central bank operations and accelerate efforts to strengthen financial regulation, supervision, and crisis management. - Commercial bank lending for development purposes, if needed, should be supported by the state budget and not by the CBT. - Exchange rate and FX policies - Unifying exchange rates would support diversification objectives and reduce distortions and governance vulnerabilities. - Consider a significant upfront adjustment of the official exchange rate combined with sufficiently tight macroeconomic policies, a clear communication strategy, and enhanced social benefits to protect the most vulnerable. - Post-adjustment, the devalued official exchange rate can remain the monetary anchor, with the CBT ready to provide FX to meet demand. - Eliminate exchange restrictions on current international transactions to create a level-playing field, improve efficiency, and alleviate FX shortages. - Adjustment measures and supporting reforms need careful sequencing given inherent uncertainties. ### Structural reform and diversification agenda - Main challenge: translate hydrocarbon wealth into more diversified, sustainable, and inclusive growth. - Policy directions to support diversification: - Adopt a more market-based strategy and liberalize prices. - Reduce the state footprint, including SOE reform, to allocate resources more efficiently and foster private sector development. - Improve governance, skills, infrastructure, digitalization, and logistics. - Accelerate efforts toward WTO accession. - Data and transparency - Further improvements in the availability, quality, and reliability of economic statistics would help inform policy makers and increase transparency and credibility. ### Key scenario risks - Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. - Main downside drivers: weaker hydrocarbon exports and prices, prolonged overvaluation of the real exchange rate, protectionism, investment inefficiencies, and challenges to the business environment. ### Selected economic and financial indicators, 2022–26 (staff estimates and projections) - Output and prices (Annual percentage change) - Real GDP 1/: 3.0 (2022); 4.5 (2023); 2.3 (2024); 2.3 (2025 est. in table — note narrative cites around 2.3 percent in 2025); (2026 column header present) - Real hydrocarbon GDP: -6.4 (2022); -0.6 (2023); -10.6 (2024); -2.6 (2025); 1.8 (2026) - Real nonhydrocarbon GDP: 5.2 (2022); 5.6 (2023); 5.7 (2024) - Consumer prices (end of period): 1.4 (2022); 3.8 (2023); 4.0 (2024); 6.0 (2025) - Consumer prices (period average): 11.2 (2022); -1.6 (2023); 4.6 (2024); 3.9 (2025); 5.0 (2026) - Investment and savings (In percent of GDP) - Gross investment: 18.2 (2022); 17.0 (2023); 16.0 (2024); 13.0 (2025); 12.9 (2026) - Of which: State budget: 0.5 (2022); 0.9 (2023); 1.6 (2024); 0.7 (2025) - Gross savings: 27.9 (2022); 22.9 (2023); 20.4 (2024); 15.1 (2025); 13.3 (2026) - Fiscal sector - Overall fiscal balance 2/: 3.4 (2022); 0.1 (2023); -0.1 (2024); 0.3 (2025); -0.3 (2026) - Revenue: 16.4 (2022); 13.8 (2023); 14.4 (2024); 14.1 (2025); 13.7 (2026) - Expenditure: 14.5 (2022) - Total public debt 3/: 7.9 (2022); 5.8 (2023); 3.6 (2024); 3.3 (2025); 3.1 (2026) - Monetary sector (12-month percent change, unless otherwise indicated) - Credit to the economy 4/: 8.2 (2022); 2.2 (2023); 5.4 (2024); 5.9 (2025) - Credit to GDP ratio: 58.6 (2022); 53.1 (2023); 49.6 (2024); 49.9 (2025) - Broad money, incl. foreign currency deposits at CBT: -2.5 (2022); 10.1 (2023); 5.3 (2024); 6.7 (2025) - External sector (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) - Exports of goods (In millions of US$): 14,727 (2022); 12,963 (2023); 12,168 (2024); 11,218 (2025); 11,068 (2026) - Imports of goods (In millions of US$): 7,188 (2022); 7,401 (2023); 7,665 (2024); 8,407 (2025); 9,085 (2026) - Current account balance: 9.7 (2022); 4.4 (2023); 2.1 (2024); 0.4 (2025) - Foreign direct investment: 2.0 (2022); 0.0 (2023) - Total public sector external debt (table column present) - Memorandum items: - Nominal GDP (in millions of manat): 198,371 (2022); 219,848 (2023); 240,363 (2024); 251,884 (2025); 268,110 (2026) - Nominal GDP (in millions of US$): 56,677 (2022); 62,814 (2023); 68,675 (2024); 71,967 (2025); 76,603 (2026) *IMF staff statement, June 10, 2025.* --- ## References - [Turkmenistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/TKM/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr-25190-turkmenistan-imf-completes-2025-article-iv-mission_