{ "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Ireland", "publication": "IMF News, June 11, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland/index.md", "summary": "The Irish economy has performed well and entered 2025 in a strong position.", "publishDate": "2025-06-11", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview and Main Findings", "content": "- The Irish economy \"has performed well and entered 2025 in a strong position.\"\n- The domestic economy, as measured by the Modified Gross National Income, is estimated to have grown by about 4 percent in 2024.\n- Growth drivers in 2024: robust consumption and strong net exports, dominated by foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs).\n- Headline inflation has fallen to target; service inflation remains more persistent.\n- Labor market: remains tight, although pressures appear to be easing.\n- General government balance: continued to register a sizeable surplus in 2024, supported by large corporate income tax receipts from multinational enterprises.\n- Bank lending growth: has strengthened, largely driven by housing and consumer loans.\n- Outlook: domestic economy projected to continue growing but at a slower pace in a highly uncertain global environment.\n- Risks: significant external downside risks to growth and public finances linked to concentration in a small number of MNEs, vulnerability to external trade and tax policy shifts, firm- or sector-specific shocks, and a potential sustained reversal of globalization.\n- Domestic constraints: supply-side constraints could delay attainment of infrastructure and housing goals." }, { "heading": "Executive Board Assessment — Key Messages", "content": "- Directors welcomed the strong economic performance underpinned by robust domestic demand and prudent policies.\n- Outlook: positive but with considerable downside risks due to high global uncertainty and Ireland’s exposure to trade and investment shocks.\n- Fiscal policy: emphasize maintaining fiscal prudence and building buffers.\n- Fiscal stance recommendation: broadly neutral fiscal stance with increased capital expenditure appropriate while the economy is operating at full capacity.\n- Revenue advice: step up public investment, enhance public spending efficiency, and broaden the tax base to reduce reliance on uncertain corporate tax revenue.\n- Fiscal framework: strengthen the national fiscal framework to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and enhance credibility and predictability of fiscal policy.\n- Financial stability: recognize resilience of the financial sector; underscore continued close monitoring of risks, vigilance given high global uncertainty, and reassessment of macroprudential stance as conditions evolve.\n- Non-bank sector: welcome progress on reducing risks but urge continued efforts to improve regulation, supervision, and address data gaps in collaboration with international regulators and other jurisdictions.\n- Competitiveness and resilience: promote linkages between domestic and multinational firms, improve infrastructure, engage in the EU to strengthen the single market, harness benefits of digitalization and AI, and address supply-side constraints in housing (boost construction sector productivity and enhance housing policy certainty)." }, { "heading": "Projections and Selected Economic Indicators (2021–30)", "content": "- Table covers Projections for years: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030 (annual percentage change, constant prices, unless otherwise indicated).\n\nOutput / Demand\n- Real GDP 1/: 16.3, 8.6, -5.5, 1.2, 3.2, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3\n- Real GNI (growth rate) 2/: 13.9, 4.6, 5.0, 3.7, 2.4, 2.0\n- Domestic demand: -16.4, 8.0, 6.0, -11.9, 7.6, 2.5\n- Public consumption: 6.3, 3.0, 4.3\n- Private consumption: 8.9, 10.7, 4.8\n- Gross fixed capital formation: -39.4, 2.8, -25.4, 20.0\n- Exports of goods and services: 14.1, 13.5, -5.8, 11.7, 3.1\n- Imports of goods and services: -8.7, 16.0, 6.5, 4.9, 2.7\n- Output gap: 3.4, 1.0, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3, 0.1, 0.0\n\nContribution to Growth\n- Contribution to Growth (series): -13.1, 4.7, 3.5, -7.7, 4.4, 1.4, 1.5\n- Consumption: 1.6, 1.1, -16.3, 0.8, -5.9\n- Inventories: 0.2, 1.3, -3.0\n- Net exports: 29.1, 3.3, -9.1, 9.3, -1.0, 0.7\n- Residual: -0.3, -0.2\n\nPrices and Labor\n- Inflation (HICP): 8.1, 5.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.8\n- Inflation (HICP, core): 5.1\n- GDP deflator: 6.8, 3.6\n- Employment (% changes of level, ILO definition): 6.9\n- Unemployment rate (percent): 4.5\n\nPublic Finance, General Government (Percent of GDP)\n- Revenue: 22.2, 22.3, 24.3, 27.8, 25.6, 25.7, 26.1, 26.2\n- Expenditure: 23.5, 20.6, 22.7, 24.2, 24.4, 24.6, 24.8, 24.9, 25.0\n- Overall balance: -1.4\n- in percent of GNI: -2.7, 7.4\n- Primary balance: -0.6\n- Cyclically adjusted primary balance: -1.6\n- Structural primary balance 3/: -0.4, -0.8, -0.9, -0.7\n\nGovernment Debt\n- General government gross debt: 52.6, 43.1, 43.3, 40.9, 36.4, 34.4, 33.1, 31.6, 30.2, 29.0\n- General government gross debt (percent of GNI): 102.3, 84.2, 75.9, 70.0, 62.8, 59.3, 57.1, 54.5, 52.1, 50.1\n\nBalance of Payments and External Position\n- Trade balance (goods): 37.5, 39.4, 30.6, 36.6, 36.1, 35.7, 35.6, 35.8\n- Current account balance: 12.2, 8.8, 17.2, 11.6, 11.1, 10.6, 9.9, 9.2\n- Gross external debt (excl. IFSC) 4/: 284.9, 229.9, 218.9, 198.0, 179.9, 166.4, 153.3, 140.6, 129.3, 118.9\n\nSaving and Investment Balance\n- Gross national savings: 35.3, 31.7, 34.6, 31.5, 30.9, 30.3, 29.9, 29.3, 28.8\n- Private sector: 35.5, 31.8, 29.2, 28.6, 28.4, 27.7, 27.2, 26.8\n- Public sector: 2.6, 5.3\n- Gross capital formation: 23.1, 22.9, 26.3, 17.4, 19.3, 19.2, 19.4, 19.5\n\nMemorandum Items\n- Nominal GDP (€ billions): 449.2, 520.9, 510.0, 533.4, 561.2, 581.1, 603.9, 630.2, 656.8, 685.2\n- Nominal GNI (€ billions): 230.8, 267.0, 290.9, 311.8, 325.3, 337.0, 349.8, 364.9, 380.7, 397.2\n\nNotes from the report\n- 1/ Real GDP growth is reported in non-seasonally adjusted terms.\n- 2/ Nominal GNI is deflated using GDP deflator as proxy, since an official GNI deflator is not available.\n- 3/ Excludes estimated windfall CIT receipts. In 2024 also excludes CIT receipts of 2.5 percent of GDP following judgment by the Court of Justice of the EU.\n- 4/ IFSC indicates international financial services.\n- 5/ Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) measures Ireland's domestic economic activity by excluding certain capital investment items such as aeroplanes purchased by leasing companies in Ireland and Intellectual Property purchases of foreign-owned corporations from final domestic demand." }, { "heading": "Policy Recommendations and Priorities", "content": "- Fiscal policy:\n - Continue to focus on building buffers.\n - Step up public investment while maintaining a broadly neutral fiscal stance given full capacity.\n - Enhance public spending efficiency.\n - Broaden the tax base to reduce reliance on uncertain corporate tax revenue.\n - Strengthen the national fiscal framework to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and enhance credibility and predictability.\n- Financial stability and regulation:\n - Maintain vigilance and close monitoring of financial stability risks amid high global uncertainty.\n - Continue reassessment of the macroprudential stance as conditions evolve.\n - Improve regulation and supervision of the non-bank sector and address data gaps in collaboration with international regulators and other jurisdictions.\n- Structural and competitiveness measures:\n - Promote linkages between domestic firms and multinational enterprises in innovation cooperation.\n - Improve infrastructure to foster competitiveness.\n - Continue engagement in the EU to strengthen the single market.\n - Harness opportunities from digitalization and AI.\n - Address supply-side constraints in housing by boosting construction sector productivity and enhancing housing policy certainty.\n\nSource: IMF press release \"IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Ireland\" (June 11, 2025).\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Ireland and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: June 11, 2025", "The Irish economy \"has performed well and entered 2025 in a strong position.\"", "The domestic economy, as measured by the Modified Gross National Income, is estimated to have grown by about 4 percent in 2024.", "Growth drivers in 2024: robust consumption and strong net exports, dominated by foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs).", "Headline inflation has fallen to target; service inflation remains more persistent.", "Labor market: remains tight, although pressures appear to be easing.", "General government balance: continued to register a sizeable surplus in 2024, supported by large corporate income tax receipts from multinational enterprises.", "Bank lending growth: has strengthened, largely driven by housing and consumer loans.", "Outlook: domestic economy projected to continue growing but at a slower pace in a highly uncertain global environment.", "Risks: significant external downside risks to growth and public finances linked to concentration in a small number of MNEs, vulnerability to external trade and tax policy shifts, firm- or sector-specific shocks, and a potential sustained reversal of globalization.", "Domestic constraints: supply-side constraints could delay attainment of infrastructure and housing goals.", "Directors welcomed the strong economic performance underpinned by robust domestic demand and prudent policies.", "Outlook: positive but with considerable downside risks due to high global uncertainty and Ireland’s exposure to trade and investment shocks.", "Fiscal policy: emphasize maintaining fiscal prudence and building buffers.", "Fiscal stance recommendation: broadly neutral fiscal stance with increased capital expenditure appropriate while the economy is operating at full capacity.", "Revenue advice: step up public investment, enhance public spending efficiency, and broaden the tax base to reduce reliance on uncertain corporate tax revenue.", "Fiscal framework: strengthen the national fiscal framework to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and enhance credibility and predictability of fiscal policy.", "Financial stability: recognize resilience of the financial sector; underscore continued close monitoring of risks, vigilance given high global uncertainty, and reassessment of macroprudential stance as conditions evolve.", "Non-bank sector: welcome progress on reducing risks but urge continued efforts to improve regulation, supervision, and address data gaps in collaboration with international regulators and other jurisdictions.", "Competitiveness and resilience: promote linkages between domestic and multinational firms, improve infrastructure, engage in the EU to strengthen the single market, harness benefits of digitalization and AI, and address supply-side constraints in housing (boost construction sector productivity and enhance housing policy certainty).", "Table covers Projections for years: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030 (annual percentage change, constant prices, unless otherwise indicated).", "Real GDP 1/: 16.3, 8.6, -5.5, 1.2, 3.2, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3", "Real GNI* (growth rate) 2/: 13.9, 4.6, 5.0, 3.7, 2.4, 2.0", "Domestic demand: -16.4, 8.0, 6.0, -11.9, 7.6, 2.5", "Public consumption: 6.3, 3.0, 4.3", "Private consumption: 8.9, 10.7, 4.8", "Gross fixed capital formation: -39.4, 2.8, -25.4, 20.0", "Exports of goods and services: 14.1, 13.5, -5.8, 11.7, 3.1", "Imports of goods and services: -8.7, 16.0, 6.5, 4.9, 2.7", "Output gap: 3.4, 1.0, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3, 0.1, 0.0", "Contribution to Growth (series): -13.1, 4.7, 3.5, -7.7, 4.4, 1.4, 1.5", "Consumption: 1.6, 1.1, -16.3, 0.8, -5.9", "Inventories: 0.2, 1.3, -3.0", "Net exports: 29.1, 3.3, -9.1, 9.3, -1.0, 0.7", "Residual: -0.3, -0.2", "Inflation (HICP): 8.1, 5.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.8", "Inflation (HICP, core): 5.1", "GDP deflator: 6.8, 3.6", "Employment (% changes of level, ILO definition): 6.9", "Unemployment rate (percent): 4.5", "Revenue: 22.2, 22.3, 24.3, 27.8, 25.6, 25.7, 26.1, 26.2", "Expenditure: 23.5, 20.6, 22.7, 24.2, 24.4, 24.6, 24.8, 24.9, 25.0", "Overall balance: -1.4", "in percent of GNI*: -2.7, 7.4", "Primary balance: -0.6", "Cyclically adjusted primary balance: -1.6", "Structural primary balance 3/: -0.4, -0.8, -0.9, -0.7", "General government gross debt: 52.6, 43.1, 43.3, 40.9, 36.4, 34.4, 33.1, 31.6, 30.2, 29.0", "General government gross debt (percent of GNI*): 102.3, 84.2, 75.9, 70.0, 62.8, 59.3, 57.1, 54.5, 52.1, 50.1", "Trade balance (goods): 37.5, 39.4, 30.6, 36.6, 36.1, 35.7, 35.6, 35.8", "Current account balance: 12.2, 8.8, 17.2, 11.6, 11.1, 10.6, 9.9, 9.2", "Gross external debt (excl. IFSC) 4/: 284.9, 229.9, 218.9, 198.0, 179.9, 166.4, 153.3, 140.6, 129.3, 118.9", "Gross national savings: 35.3, 31.7, 34.6, 31.5, 30.9, 30.3, 29.9, 29.3, 28.8", "Private sector: 35.5, 31.8, 29.2, 28.6, 28.4, 27.7, 27.2, 26.8", "Public sector: 2.6, 5.3", "Gross capital formation: 23.1, 22.9, 26.3, 17.4, 19.3, 19.2, 19.4, 19.5", "Nominal GDP (€ billions): 449.2, 520.9, 510.0, 533.4, 561.2, 581.1, 603.9, 630.2, 656.8, 685.2", "Nominal GNI* (€ billions): 230.8, 267.0, 290.9, 311.8, 325.3, 337.0, 349.8, 364.9, 380.7, 397.2", "1/ Real GDP growth is reported in non-seasonally adjusted terms.", "2/ Nominal GNI* is deflated using GDP deflator as proxy, since an official GNI* deflator is not available.", "3/ Excludes estimated windfall CIT receipts. In 2024 also excludes CIT receipts of 2.5 percent of GDP following judgment by the Court of Justice of the EU.", "4/ IFSC indicates international financial services.", "5/ Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) measures Ireland's domestic economic activity by excluding certain capital investment items such as aeroplanes purchased by leasing companies in Ireland and Intellectual Property purchases of foreign-owned corporations from final domestic demand.", "Fiscal policy:", "Financial stability and regulation:", "Structural and competitiveness measures:", "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)", "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)", "[Ireland and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/IRL/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/06/10/pr25189-ireland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-ireland/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T03:55:49.515Z" }