{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Namibia",
  "publication": "IMF News, June 17, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/13/pr-25198-namibia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-art-iv-consult",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Namibia",
  "publishDate": "2025-06-17",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic Developments and Outlook",
      "content": "- Namibia’s economic growth decelerated from 5.4 percent in 2022 to 3.7 percent in 2024 as a decline in production in response to lower diamond prices outweighed momentum stemming from rising gold and uranium prices.\n- Oil exploration plateaued in 2024 following a spike in 2023, while agriculture contracted sharply due to the drought of 2023–24, the most severe in a century.\n- Inflation has fallen, reflecting a drop in food and fuel prices in international markets.\n- Growth projections:\n  - 2025: 3¾ percent (forecast)\n  - 2026: 3¾ percent (forecast)\n  - Medium term: about 3 percent\n- Average CPI inflation projections:\n  - 2025: 4.1 percent\n  - Medium term: around 4.5 percent\n- Risk assessment:\n  - Downside external risks: commodity price fluctuations; further worsening of global trade tensions; deepening of economic fragmentation; tighter global financial conditions.\n  - Downside domestic risks: social discontent from continued high unemployment and inequality; increased volatility from weather shocks.\n  - Upside risks: easing of global trade policy tensions; faster development of oil, gas, and green hydrogen projects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board Assessment and Staff Appraisal",
      "content": "- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and noted:\n  - Positive note of Namibia’s economic resilience, with slowing inflation and improved external position, despite the challenging external environment.\n  - Welcome for the new government’s commitment to fostering inclusive growth and build resilience to climate shocks.\n- Key concerns and priorities:\n  - Subdued growth outlook reflecting global trade policy uncertainty and domestic structural rigidities, high unemployment, and inequality.\n  - Need to harness Namibia’s economic potential and raise per capita income by promoting a private sector led, inclusive, weather resilient, and diversified economy.\n- Timing:\n  - It is expected that the next Article IV Consultation with Namibia will be held on the standard 12-month cycle."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Recommendations",
      "content": "- Fiscal policy:\n  - Welcome for authorities’ commitment to maintaining fiscal discipline and creating space for growth-enhancing measures.\n  - Call for sustained and larger fiscal consolidation over the medium term to entrench favorable public debt dynamics and strengthen the external position.\n  - Acceleration of fiscal reforms urged, including:\n    - Enacting a comprehensive civil service reform to contain the wage bill.\n    - State owned enterprise reforms.\n    - Strengthening public financial and investment management.\n    - Enhancing tax administration to solidify fiscal consolidation.\n  - At the same time, recommended actions:\n    - Increasing public investment to enhance growth.\n    - Expanding social protection.\n    - Building resilience to weather shocks.\n  - Encouragement to establish, with Fund technical assistance, a strong governance framework for the sovereign wealth fund and a natural resource management framework to safeguard long term macroeconomic stability and support economic development.\n- Monetary policy and exchange rate:\n  - Recommendation: In the absence of capital outflows, gradually align the policy rate with that of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to safeguard the currency peg, taking advantage of SARB’s rate reductions.\n  - Caution: Bank of Namibia should remain vigilant to economic conditions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial Sector and AML/CFT",
      "content": "- Progress welcomed in enhancing financial sector resilience, notably through the introduction of the bank resolution policy.\n- Continued monitoring encouraged for risks including the sovereign bank nexus and household debt.\n- Recommendations:\n  - Finalize additional policy measures, including counter cyclical capital buffers and strengthened cooperation on crisis resolution.\n  - Continued efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework to expedite removal from the FATF grey list."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural Reform Priorities",
      "content": "- Directors highlighted that bold structural reforms are essential to fostering sustainable, inclusive, and private sector led growth and improving external competitiveness.\n- Recommended measures:\n  - Improve human capital and reduce skill mismatches.\n  - Enhance the business climate.\n  - Strengthen governance.\n  - Foster digitalization.\n  - Develop a set of policies to harness prospective oil, gas, and green hydrogen for economic diversification and job creation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Economic Indicators and Selected Figures (2022–30 and related)",
      "content": "- Population (2024, million): 3.0\n- Per-capita GDP (2024, USD): 4471.8\n- Quota (current, millions of SDR, percent of total): 54.6\n- Poverty (2015, percent of national poverty line): 17.4\n- Main exports: Diamonds, Fish, Gold, Uranium, Copper.\n- Key export markets: South Africa, Botswana, China, Zambia, and Belgium.\n- Real GDP growth:\n  - 2022: 5.4\n  - 2023: 4.4\n  - 2024: 3.7\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 3.8\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 2.9\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 3.0\n- Nominal GDP growth:\n  - 2022: 12.2\n  - 2023: 11.3\n  - 2024: 7.1\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 8.8\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 9.3\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 7.4\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 7.6\n- Nominal GDP (billions of USD):\n  - 2022: 205.6\n  - 2023: 228.9\n  - 2024: 245.1\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 266.8\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 291.7\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 313.4\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 337.1\n  - 2029 (Proj.): 362.5\n  - 2030 (Proj.): 389.9\n- Nominal GDP per capita (USD):\n  - 2022: 4,407\n  - 2023: 4,236\n  - 2024: 4,472\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 4,673\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 4,898\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 5,037\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 5,192\n  - 2029 (Proj.): 5,346\n  - 2030 (Proj.): 5,513\n- GDP Deflator:\n  - 2022: 6.4\n  - 2023: 6.6\n  - 2024: 3.3\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 4.9\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 5.5\n- Consumer prices (average):\n  - 2022: 6.1\n  - 2023: 5.9\n  - 2024: 4.2\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 4.1\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 4.5\n- Consumer prices (end of period):\n  - 2022: 6.9\n  - 2023: 5.3\n  - 2024: 3.4\n- Central Government Budget (percent of GDP), Revenue and grants 2/:\n  - 2022: 30.5\n  - 2023: 35.1\n  - 2024: 36.5\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 33.2\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 32.8\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 33.1\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 33.3\n- Of which: SACU receipts:\n  - 2022: 6.7\n  - 2023: 10.5\n  - 2024: 11.2\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 7.7\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 7.9\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 8.2\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 8.5\n  - 2029 (Proj.): 8.4\n- Expenditure:\n  - 2022: 36.1\n  - 2023: 37.6\n  - 2024: 40.4\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 38.8\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 37.7\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 36.8\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 36.6\n- Of which: personnel expenditure:\n  - 2022: 14.9\n  - 2023: 13.9\n  - 2024: 14.1\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 13.5\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 12.8\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 12.3\n- Of which: capital expenditure and net lending:\n  - 2022: 3.1\n  - 2023: 3.9\n  - 2024: 4.0\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 3.5\n- Primary balance:\n  - 2022: -1.2\n  - 2023: 2.7\n  - 2024: 1.2\n  - 2025 (Proj.): -0.5\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 0.2\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 1.4\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 1.7\n- Overall fiscal balance:\n  - 2022: -5.7\n  - 2023: -2.4\n  - 2024: -3.9\n  - 2025 (Proj.): -4.8\n  - 2026 (Proj.): -3.7\n  - 2027 (Proj.): -3.3\n- Overall fiscal balance ex. SACU:\n  - 2022: -12.4\n  - 2023: -12.8\n  - 2024: -15.1\n  - 2025 (Proj.): -13.4\n  - 2026 (Proj.): -12.0\n  - 2027 (Proj.): -11.8\n  - 2028 (Proj.): -11.7\n- Public debt, gross:\n  - 2022: 67.5\n  - 2023: 66.0\n  - 2024: 66.2\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 62.3\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 62.2\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 62.0\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 61.1\n  - 2029 (Proj.): 60.1\n  - 2030 (Proj.): 59.3\n- Investment:\n  - 2022: 20.1\n  - 2023: 27.3\n  - 2024: 25.6\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 22.1\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 19.0\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 17.8\n  - 2028 (Proj.): 16.8\n- Public (investment, percent of GDP):\n  - 2022: 2.6\n  - 2023: 2.4\n  - 2024: 2.5\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 2.3\n- Others (incl. SOEs) (investment, percent of GDP):\n  - 2022: 23.7\n  - 2023: 21.3\n  - 2024: 19.5\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 16.5\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 15.5\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 14.5\n- Change inventories:\n  - 2022: 2.0\n  - 2023: 0.0\n  - 2024: (not listed)\n- Savings:\n  - 2022: 7.3\n  - 2023: 12.0\n  - 2024: 10.3\n  - 2025 (Proj.): 5.2\n  - 2026 (Proj.): 4.6\n  - 2027 (Proj.): 5.1\n  - 2028 (Proj.): -3.2\n  - 2029 (Proj.): -0.2\n  - 2030 (Proj.): 0.1\n- Money and Credit:\n  - Broad money:\n    - 2022: 10.7\n    - 2023: 9.7\n    - 2024: 9.1\n    - 2025 (Proj.): 8.6\n  - Credit to the private sector:\n    - 2022: 2.8\n    - 2023: 6.2\n- BoN repo rate (percent) 3/:\n  - 2022: 6.75\n  - 2023: 7.75\n  - 2024: 7.00\n  - 2025: …\n- Balance of Payments:\n  - Current account balance:\n    - 2022: -12.6\n    - 2023: -15.3\n    - 2024: -15.5\n    - 2025 (Proj.): -13.7\n    - 2026 (Proj.): -12.1\n    - 2027 (Proj.): -11.3\n  - Financial account balance:\n    - 2022: -13.3\n    - 2023: -15.9\n    - 2024: -17.2\n    - 2025 (Proj.): -9.3\n    - 2026 (Proj.): -15.4\n    - 2027 (Proj.): -13.6\n    - 2028 (Proj.): -12.3\n  - Gross official reserves:\n    - 2022: 22.3\n    - 2023: 23.2\n    - 2024: 25.1\n    - 2025 (Proj.): 18.4\n    - 2026 (Proj.): 21.2\n    - 2027 (Proj.): 21.5\n    - 2028 (Proj.): 21.6\n    - 2029 (Proj.): 22.2\n  - Reserves (in months of imports): (not listed)\n  - External debt:\n    - 2022: 71.7\n    - 2023: 76.0\n    - 2024: 74.6\n    - 2025 (Proj.): 68.0\n    - 2026 (Proj.): 66.8\n    - 2027 (Proj.): 65.5\n    - 2028 (Proj.): 63.6\n    - 2029 (Proj.): 61.8\n  - of which: public (incl. IMF) 4/:\n    - 2022: 17.5\n    - 2023: 16.6\n    - 2024: 14.7\n    - 2025 (Proj.): 6.8\n    - 2026 (Proj.): 6.0\n- Exchange rate:\n  - REER (percent, yoy):\n    - 2022: -3.6\n    - 2023: -6.3\n  - Average exchange rate (Namibian dollar per USD):\n    - 2022: 16.4\n    - 2023: 18.5\n    - 2024: 18.3"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Priorities to Support Inclusive, Resilient Growth",
      "content": "- Maintain fiscal prudence while creating space for growth-enhancing measures.\n- Manage monetary policy to safeguard the peg, with gradual alignment to SARB rates in the absence of capital outflows.\n- Enhance financial sector resilience and complete remaining policy measures (counter cyclical capital buffers, crisis resolution cooperation).\n- Accelerate structural reforms to:\n  - Promote private sector-led, inclusive, weather-shock-resilient growth.\n  - Improve human capital, address skill mismatches, and enhance the business climate.\n  - Strengthen governance and foster digitalization.\n- Develop and implement comprehensive strategy to leverage potential opportunities from recent oil discoveries and harness oil, gas, and green hydrogen projects for diversification and job creation.\n\nIMF Communications Department; Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Namibia; June 17, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Namibia and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/Namibia\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/13/pr-25198-namibia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-art-iv-consult"
    }
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    "Published: June 17, 2025",
    "Namibia’s economic growth decelerated from 5.4 percent in 2022 to 3.7 percent in 2024 as a decline in production in response to lower diamond prices outweighed momentum stemming from rising gold and uranium prices.",
    "Oil exploration plateaued in 2024 following a spike in 2023, while agriculture contracted sharply due to the drought of 2023–24, the most severe in a century.",
    "Inflation has fallen, reflecting a drop in food and fuel prices in international markets.",
    "Growth projections:",
    "Average CPI inflation projections:",
    "Risk assessment:",
    "Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and noted:",
    "Key concerns and priorities:",
    "Timing:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Monetary policy and exchange rate:",
    "Progress welcomed in enhancing financial sector resilience, notably through the introduction of the bank resolution policy.",
    "Continued monitoring encouraged for risks including the sovereign bank nexus and household debt.",
    "Recommendations:",
    "Directors highlighted that bold structural reforms are essential to fostering sustainable, inclusive, and private sector led growth and improving external competitiveness.",
    "Recommended measures:",
    "Population (2024, million): 3.0",
    "Per-capita GDP (2024, USD): 4471.8",
    "Quota (current, millions of SDR, percent of total): 54.6",
    "Poverty (2015, percent of national poverty line): 17.4",
    "Main exports: Diamonds, Fish, Gold, Uranium, Copper.",
    "Key export markets: South Africa, Botswana, China, Zambia, and Belgium.",
    "Real GDP growth:",
    "Nominal GDP growth:",
    "Nominal GDP (billions of USD):",
    "Nominal GDP per capita (USD):",
    "GDP Deflator:",
    "Consumer prices (average):",
    "Consumer prices (end of period):",
    "Central Government Budget (percent of GDP), Revenue and grants 2/:",
    "Of which: SACU receipts:",
    "Expenditure:",
    "Of which: personnel expenditure:",
    "Of which: capital expenditure and net lending:",
    "Primary balance:",
    "Overall fiscal balance:",
    "Overall fiscal balance ex. SACU:",
    "Public debt, gross:",
    "Investment:",
    "Public (investment, percent of GDP):",
    "Others (incl. SOEs) (investment, percent of GDP):",
    "Change inventories:",
    "Savings:",
    "Money and Credit:",
    "BoN repo rate (percent) 3/:",
    "Balance of Payments:",
    "Exchange rate:",
    "Maintain fiscal prudence while creating space for growth-enhancing measures.",
    "Manage monetary policy to safeguard the peg, with gradual alignment to SARB rates in the absence of capital outflows.",
    "Enhance financial sector resilience and complete remaining policy measures (counter cyclical capital buffers, crisis resolution cooperation).",
    "Accelerate structural reforms to:",
    "Develop and implement comprehensive strategy to leverage potential opportunities from recent oil discoveries and harness oil, gas, and green hydrogen projects for diversification and job creation.",
    "[Namibia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/NAM/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/Namibia](http://www.imf.org/Namibia)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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