{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan",
  "publication": "IMF News, June 18, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/18/pr-25206-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "On June 16, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for the Republic of Uzbekistan. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.",
  "publishDate": "2025-06-18",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key findings on recent performance",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth: 6.5 percent in 2024; 6.8 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025.\n- Consumer price inflation: trended downward through end-April 2024, rose to 10.6 percent year-on-year in May 2024 following energy price reform; by end-April 2025 marginally eased to 10.1 percent.\n- Current account deficit: narrowed by 2.6 percentage points of GDP to about 5.0 percent in 2024.\n- International reserves: described as ample; projected at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026.\n- Consolidated fiscal deficit: narrowed by 1.7 percentage points of GDP to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2024, though borrowing and spending from the broader public sector were higher than anticipated.\n- Drivers of improved external and fiscal positions: strong remittances, rapidly growing non-gold exports, favorable commodity prices, unwinding of a one-off spike in imports in 2023, and growth-friendly expenditure measures."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and projections (baseline)",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth: projected at close to 6 percent in 2025 and 2026 under the baseline.\n- Inflation: expected to decline to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s (CBU) 5 percent target by end-2027, supported by continued tight monetary and macroprudential policies and fiscal discipline.\n- Current account deficit: foreseen to stay at or slightly below 5 percent over 2025-26.\n- International reserves: expected at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and upside scenarios",
      "content": "- Downside risks:\n  - Prolonged and deeper trade policy shocks.\n  - More volatile commodity prices.\n  - Tighter external financing.\n  - Contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and banks, and public-private partnerships.\n- Upside opportunities:\n  - Faster implementation of structural reforms.\n  - Stronger inflows of income and capital.\n  - Favorable commodity prices."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy priorities",
      "content": "- Overall assessment:\n  - Directors agreed with the staff appraisal and welcomed the positive outlook amid transition progress.\n  - Noted persistent vulnerabilities from a still large state footprint and rising external uncertainty.\n- Fiscal policy recommendations:\n  - Reverse the decline in the tax-to-GDP ratio and improve expenditure efficiency to create fiscal space for priority social and development needs.\n  - Adhere to external borrowing limits and avoid government spending procyclicality in response to high gold prices.\n  - Improve monitoring and management of fiscal risks from SOEs and public-private partnerships.\n  - Further strengthen PFM and fiscal transparency.\n- Monetary and exchange rate recommendations:\n  - Maintain data-driven monetary policy and tighten further if core inflation or inflation expectations do not decline.\n  - Continue strengthening communication and monetary policy transmission.\n  - Adopt greater exchange rate flexibility.\n  - Implement outstanding safeguards recommendations to strengthen central bank governance and independence.\n- Financial sector recommendations:\n  - Enhance bank supervision and regulation to safeguard financial stability and reduce the state’s role in the financial sector.\n  - Bolster the commercial orientation and corporate governance of state banks; phase out directed and preferential lending.\n  - Expedite and expand privatization efforts.\n  - Strengthen asset classification, NPL reporting and resolution, and the regulatory, supervisory, crisis management, and AML/CFT frameworks following recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program.\n  - Consider additional macroprudential measures to mitigate risks from rapid growth in microcredit.\n- Structural reforms:\n  - Deepen and accelerate reforms, complete price and trade liberalization, phase out support to SOEs, and accelerate privatizations in line with international best practices.\n  - Advance governance reforms, including improvements in transparency and accountability and approval of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy.\n  - Close data gaps and improve data quality."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic indicators (2022–2026)",
      "content": "- National income / Real GDP growth (percent change)\n  - 2022: 6.0\n  - 2023: 6.3\n  - 2024: 6.5\n  - 2025 Est.: 5.9\n  - 2026 Proj.: 5.8\n- Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum)\n  - 2022: 996\n  - 2023: 1,204\n  - 2024: 1,455\n  - 2025 Est.: 1,733\n  - 2026 Proj.: 2,005\n- GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars)\n  - 2022: 2,555\n  - 2023: 2,849\n  - 2024: 3,113\n  - 2025 Est.: 3,487\n  - 2026 Proj.: 3,805\n- Population (in millions)\n  - 2022: 35.3\n  - 2023: 36.0\n  - 2024: 36.9\n  - 2025 Est.: 37.7\n  - 2026 Proj.: 38.5\n- Prices (Percent change)\n  - Consumer price inflation (end of period)\n    - 2022: 12.3\n    - 2023: 8.7\n    - 2024: 9.8\n    - 2025 Est.: 8.4\n  - GDP deflator\n    - 2022: 14.5\n    - 2023: 13.8\n    - 2024: 13.3\n    - 2025 Est.: 12.5\n    - 2026 Proj.: 9.4\n- External sector (Percent of GDP)\n  - Current account balance\n    - 2022: -3.2\n    - 2023: -7.6\n    - 2024: -5.0\n    - 2025 Est.: -4.8\n  - External debt\n    - 2022: 49.2\n    - 2023: 54.5\n    - 2024: 56.2\n    - 2025 Est.: 55.4\n    - 2026 Proj.: 55.2\n- Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period)\n  - 2022: 11,225\n  - 2023: 12,339\n  - 2024: 12,920\n  - 2025: …\n- Real effective exchange rate (ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation)\n  - 2022: 61.8\n  - 2023: 58.8\n- Government finance (percent of GDP)\n  - Consolidated budget revenues\n    - 2022: 28.8\n    - 2023: 26.7\n    - 2024: 26.5\n    - 2025 Est.: 26.3\n    - 2026 Proj.: 26.4\n  - Consolidated budget expenditures\n    - 2022: 32.3\n    - 2023: 31.6\n    - 2024: 29.7\n    - 2025 Est.: 29.3\n    - 2026 Proj.: 29.4\n  - Consolidated budget balance\n    - 2022: -3.5\n    - 2023: -4.9\n    - 2024: -3.0\n  - Adjusted revenues 3/\n    - 2022: 27.7\n    - 2023: 25.9\n    - 2024: 25.5\n    - 2025 Est.: 25.3\n  - Adjusted expenditures 3/\n    - 2022: 31.3\n    - 2023: 29.9\n    - 2024: 27.8\n    - 2025 Est.: 27.3\n  - Adjusted fiscal balance\n    - 2022: -3.7\n    - 2023: -4.0\n    - 2024: -2.3\n    - 2025 Est.: -2.0\n  - Policy-based lending\n    - 2022: -0.1\n    - 2023: 0.9\n    - 2024: 1.0\n    - 2025 Est.: 0.7\n  - Public debt\n    - 2022: 30.5\n    - 2023: 32.2\n    - 2024: 32.6\n    - 2025 Est.: 33.3\n    - 2026 Proj.: 33.2\n- Money and credit (percent change or level as indicated)\n  - Reserve money\n    - 2022: 31.4\n    - 2023: 4.9\n    - 2024: 9.5\n    - 2025 Est.: 9.2\n    - 2026 Proj.: 8.8\n  - Broad money\n    - 2022: 30.2\n    - 2023: 12.2\n    - 2024: 30.6\n    - 2025 Est.: 19.4\n    - 2026 Proj.: 16.3\n  - Credit to the economy\n    - 2022: 21.4\n    - 2023: 23.2\n    - 2024: 4.0\n    - 2025 Est.: 19.3\n    - 2026 Proj.: 16.0\n\nIMF Communications Department, Press Release No. 25/206, June 18, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/Uzbekistan\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/18/pr-25206-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation"
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    "Published: June 18, 2025",
    "Real GDP growth: 6.5 percent in 2024; 6.8 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025.",
    "Consumer price inflation: trended downward through end-April 2024, rose to 10.6 percent year-on-year in May 2024 following energy price reform; by end-April 2025 marginally eased to 10.1 percent.",
    "Current account deficit: narrowed by 2.6 percentage points of GDP to about 5.0 percent in 2024.",
    "International reserves: described as ample; projected at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026.",
    "Consolidated fiscal deficit: narrowed by 1.7 percentage points of GDP to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2024, though borrowing and spending from the broader public sector were higher than anticipated.",
    "Drivers of improved external and fiscal positions: strong remittances, rapidly growing non-gold exports, favorable commodity prices, unwinding of a one-off spike in imports in 2023, and growth-friendly expenditure measures.",
    "Real GDP growth: projected at close to 6 percent in 2025 and 2026 under the baseline.",
    "Inflation: expected to decline to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s (CBU) 5 percent target by end-2027, supported by continued tight monetary and macroprudential policies and fiscal discipline.",
    "Current account deficit: foreseen to stay at or slightly below 5 percent over 2025-26.",
    "International reserves: expected at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026.",
    "Downside risks:",
    "Upside opportunities:",
    "Overall assessment:",
    "Fiscal policy recommendations:",
    "Monetary and exchange rate recommendations:",
    "Financial sector recommendations:",
    "Structural reforms:",
    "National income / Real GDP growth (percent change)",
    "Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum)",
    "GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars)",
    "Population (in millions)",
    "Prices (Percent change)",
    "External sector (Percent of GDP)",
    "Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period)",
    "Real effective exchange rate (ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation)",
    "Government finance (percent of GDP)",
    "Money and credit (percent change or level as indicated)",
    "[Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UZB/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/Uzbekistan](http://www.imf.org/Uzbekistan)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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