## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan _IMF News, June 18, 2025_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/18/pr-25206-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/06/18/pr-25206-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/06/18/pr-25206-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/06/18/pr-25206-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: June 18, 2025 --- ### Key findings on recent performance - Real GDP growth: 6.5 percent in 2024; 6.8 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025. - Consumer price inflation: trended downward through end-April 2024, rose to 10.6 percent year-on-year in May 2024 following energy price reform; by end-April 2025 marginally eased to 10.1 percent. - Current account deficit: narrowed by 2.6 percentage points of GDP to about 5.0 percent in 2024. - International reserves: described as ample; projected at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026. - Consolidated fiscal deficit: narrowed by 1.7 percentage points of GDP to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2024, though borrowing and spending from the broader public sector were higher than anticipated. - Drivers of improved external and fiscal positions: strong remittances, rapidly growing non-gold exports, favorable commodity prices, unwinding of a one-off spike in imports in 2023, and growth-friendly expenditure measures. ### Outlook and projections (baseline) - Real GDP growth: projected at close to 6 percent in 2025 and 2026 under the baseline. - Inflation: expected to decline to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s (CBU) 5 percent target by end-2027, supported by continued tight monetary and macroprudential policies and fiscal discipline. - Current account deficit: foreseen to stay at or slightly below 5 percent over 2025-26. - International reserves: expected at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026. ### Risks and upside scenarios - Downside risks: - Prolonged and deeper trade policy shocks. - More volatile commodity prices. - Tighter external financing. - Contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and banks, and public-private partnerships. - Upside opportunities: - Faster implementation of structural reforms. - Stronger inflows of income and capital. - Favorable commodity prices. ### Executive Board assessment and policy priorities - Overall assessment: - Directors agreed with the staff appraisal and welcomed the positive outlook amid transition progress. - Noted persistent vulnerabilities from a still large state footprint and rising external uncertainty. - Fiscal policy recommendations: - Reverse the decline in the tax-to-GDP ratio and improve expenditure efficiency to create fiscal space for priority social and development needs. - Adhere to external borrowing limits and avoid government spending procyclicality in response to high gold prices. - Improve monitoring and management of fiscal risks from SOEs and public-private partnerships. - Further strengthen PFM and fiscal transparency. - Monetary and exchange rate recommendations: - Maintain data-driven monetary policy and tighten further if core inflation or inflation expectations do not decline. - Continue strengthening communication and monetary policy transmission. - Adopt greater exchange rate flexibility. - Implement outstanding safeguards recommendations to strengthen central bank governance and independence. - Financial sector recommendations: - Enhance bank supervision and regulation to safeguard financial stability and reduce the state’s role in the financial sector. - Bolster the commercial orientation and corporate governance of state banks; phase out directed and preferential lending. - Expedite and expand privatization efforts. - Strengthen asset classification, NPL reporting and resolution, and the regulatory, supervisory, crisis management, and AML/CFT frameworks following recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program. - Consider additional macroprudential measures to mitigate risks from rapid growth in microcredit. - Structural reforms: - Deepen and accelerate reforms, complete price and trade liberalization, phase out support to SOEs, and accelerate privatizations in line with international best practices. - Advance governance reforms, including improvements in transparency and accountability and approval of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy. - Close data gaps and improve data quality. ### Selected economic indicators (2022–2026) - National income / Real GDP growth (percent change) - 2022: 6.0 - 2023: 6.3 - 2024: 6.5 - 2025 Est.: 5.9 - 2026 Proj.: 5.8 - Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum) - 2022: 996 - 2023: 1,204 - 2024: 1,455 - 2025 Est.: 1,733 - 2026 Proj.: 2,005 - GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars) - 2022: 2,555 - 2023: 2,849 - 2024: 3,113 - 2025 Est.: 3,487 - 2026 Proj.: 3,805 - Population (in millions) - 2022: 35.3 - 2023: 36.0 - 2024: 36.9 - 2025 Est.: 37.7 - 2026 Proj.: 38.5 - Prices (Percent change) - Consumer price inflation (end of period) - 2022: 12.3 - 2023: 8.7 - 2024: 9.8 - 2025 Est.: 8.4 - GDP deflator - 2022: 14.5 - 2023: 13.8 - 2024: 13.3 - 2025 Est.: 12.5 - 2026 Proj.: 9.4 - External sector (Percent of GDP) - Current account balance - 2022: -3.2 - 2023: -7.6 - 2024: -5.0 - 2025 Est.: -4.8 - External debt - 2022: 49.2 - 2023: 54.5 - 2024: 56.2 - 2025 Est.: 55.4 - 2026 Proj.: 55.2 - Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period) - 2022: 11,225 - 2023: 12,339 - 2024: 12,920 - 2025: … - Real effective exchange rate (ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation) - 2022: 61.8 - 2023: 58.8 - Government finance (percent of GDP) - Consolidated budget revenues - 2022: 28.8 - 2023: 26.7 - 2024: 26.5 - 2025 Est.: 26.3 - 2026 Proj.: 26.4 - Consolidated budget expenditures - 2022: 32.3 - 2023: 31.6 - 2024: 29.7 - 2025 Est.: 29.3 - 2026 Proj.: 29.4 - Consolidated budget balance - 2022: -3.5 - 2023: -4.9 - 2024: -3.0 - Adjusted revenues 3/ - 2022: 27.7 - 2023: 25.9 - 2024: 25.5 - 2025 Est.: 25.3 - Adjusted expenditures 3/ - 2022: 31.3 - 2023: 29.9 - 2024: 27.8 - 2025 Est.: 27.3 - Adjusted fiscal balance - 2022: -3.7 - 2023: -4.0 - 2024: -2.3 - 2025 Est.: -2.0 - Policy-based lending - 2022: -0.1 - 2023: 0.9 - 2024: 1.0 - 2025 Est.: 0.7 - Public debt - 2022: 30.5 - 2023: 32.2 - 2024: 32.6 - 2025 Est.: 33.3 - 2026 Proj.: 33.2 - Money and credit (percent change or level as indicated) - Reserve money - 2022: 31.4 - 2023: 4.9 - 2024: 9.5 - 2025 Est.: 9.2 - 2026 Proj.: 8.8 - Broad money - 2022: 30.2 - 2023: 12.2 - 2024: 30.6 - 2025 Est.: 19.4 - 2026 Proj.: 16.3 - Credit to the economy - 2022: 21.4 - 2023: 23.2 - 2024: 4.0 - 2025 Est.: 19.3 - 2026 Proj.: 16.0 *IMF Communications Department, Press Release No. 25/206, June 18, 2025.* --- ## References - [Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UZB/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [www.imf.org/Uzbekistan](http://www.imf.org/Uzbekistan) - [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/18/pr-25206-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation_