{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Completes the Eighth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine",
  "publication": "IMF News, June 30, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/30/pr-25227-ukraine-imf-completes-8th-rev-of-ext-arrang-under-eff",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the Eighth Review of the EFF, enabling the authorities to draw US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.37 billion, which will be channeled for budget support.",
  "publishDate": "2025-06-30",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Review outcome and disbursement",
      "content": "- The Executive Board completed the Eighth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine on June 30, 2025.\n- The completion enabled a disbursement of about US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.37 billion) to Ukraine, to be channeled for budget support.\n- This disbursement brings total disbursements under the IMF-supported program to US$10.6 billion.\n- Ukraine’s 48-month EFF has access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to about US$15.5 billion, or 577 percent of quota) and was approved on March 31, 2023.\n- The IMF-supported program forms part of an international support package totaling US$152.9 billion in the program’s baseline scenario."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Program compliance, benchmarks, and adjustments",
      "content": "- Ukraine met all end-March and continuous quantitative performance criteria for the Eighth Review, the prior action, and two structural benchmarks.\n- Prior action completed: submission to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of a detailed reform plan for the State Customs Service (SCS).\n- Two structural benchmarks completed: tax reporting for digital platform operators; publication of the external audit of NABU.\n- Four new structural benchmarks established:\n  - measures to update the single project pipeline;\n  - preparation of a prioritized roadmap for financial market infrastructure;\n  - implementation of international valuation standards;\n  - development of legislative proposals to align securitization and bonds with international standards.\n- Timelines for some other structural benchmarks (including appointment of the head of the SCS) were reset by the IMF Executive Board to allow more time for completion.\n- Authorities requested a rephasing of access to IMF financing over the remainder of 2025 to better align with updated balance of payments needs; the overall size of the program remains unchanged."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic outlook and projections",
      "content": "- The 2025 growth forecast maintained at 2–3 percent.\n- Drivers noted: a smaller electricity deficit offset by lower gas production and weaker agricultural exports.\n- The war necessitates a supplementary budget for 2025.\n- The medium-term fiscal path has been revised to reflect authorities’ policy intentions on revenue mobilization and expenditure prioritization.\n- The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has maintained a tight monetary policy to respond to still high inflation; inflation expectations remain anchored.\n- FX reserves described as adequate, sustained by continued sizeable external support.\n- Outlook characterized as subject to exceptionally high uncertainty."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and policy priorities (statements from IMF management)",
      "content": "- Full and timely disbursement of external support during the program period remains indispensable for macroeconomic stability.\n- The Fund-supported program is reported as fully financed with a cumulative external financing envelope of US$153 billion in the baseline scenario and US$165 billion in the downside scenario over the 4-year program period; this includes full utilization of approximately US$50 billion from the G7’s ERA initiative.\n- Fiscal sustainability and meeting elevated priority expenditures over the medium term require:\n  - continued decisive efforts to implement the National Revenue Strategy;\n  - modernization of the tax and customs services (including timely appointment of the customs head);\n  - reduction in tax evasion;\n  - harmonization of legislation with EU standards;\n  - improvements in public investment management frameworks, medium-term budget preparation, and fiscal risk management.\n- Completion of the debt restructuring strategy in line with the program’s debt sustainability objectives is essential to create room for priority expenditures, reduce fiscal risks, and restore debt sustainability.\n- Given still elevated inflation, the tight monetary policy stance is appropriate; the NBU should be ready to tighten further if inflation expectations deteriorate.\n- Greater exchange rate flexibility will help strengthen economic resilience while safeguarding reserves.\n- The financial sector remains stable but vigilance is needed; operational and governance weaknesses in the security markets regulator need urgent attention.\n- Closing gaps in capital markets infrastructure is key to attracting foreign private capital for post-war reconstruction.\n- Sustained progress in anticorruption and governance reforms remains crucial; completed audit of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau is important, and additional efforts are required including amending the criminal procedures code, appointing the new head of the Economic Security Bureau, and strengthening AML/CFT frameworks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics (selected items from Table 1: Ukraine: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2021–27)",
      "content": "- Nominal GDP (billions of Ukrainian hryvnias): 5,451; 5,239; 6,628; 7,659; 8,866; 10,192; 11,322\n- Real GDP (percent change): 3.4; -28.8; 5.5; 2.9; 2-3; 4.5; 4.8\n- Contributions to Real GDP (percent points):\n  - Domestic demand: 12.8; -19.0; 11.9; 3.8; 5.2; 2.7\n  - Private consumption: 3.0; 4.6; 2.8\n  - Public consumption: 0.1; 5.6; -1.5; 0.3; -2.5; -2.0\n  - Investment: 8.1; -5.5; 5.8; 0.6; 2.1; 2.5; 2.0\n  - Net exports: -9.3; -9.8; -6.3; -0.8; -3.2; 1.1\n- GDP deflator (percent change): 24.8; 34.9; 19.9; 12.3; 13.5; 10.0; 6.0\n- Unemployment rate (ILO; percent): 9.8; 24.5; 19.1; 13.1; 11.6; 10.2; 9.4\n- Consumer prices (period average): 20.2; 12.9; 6.5; 12.6; 7.6; 5.3\n- Consumer prices (end of period): 26.6; 5.1; 12.0; 9.0; 7.0; 5.0\n- Nominal wages (average): 20.8; 1.0; 20.1; 23.1; 17.4; 13.7; 10.8\n- Real wages (average): 10.5; -16.0; 6.4; 15.6; 4.2; 5.7\n- Savings (percent of GDP): 12.5; 17.0; 11.4; 4.4; 18.3\n  - Private: 12.7; 30.2; 27.4; 23.3; 21.4; 15.9; 18.0\n  - Public: -0.2; -13.1; -14.6; -11.8; -17.1; -5.9\n- Investment (percent of GDP): 14.5; 12.1; 18.1; 18.6; 20.9; 22.6; 23.7\n- General Government fiscal balance (percent of GDP): -4.0; -15.6; -19.3; -17.2; -21.3; -10.1; -4.6\n- Fiscal balance, excl. grants (percent of GDP): -24.8; -25.8; -23.1; -22.1; -10.4; -5.6\n- Public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 48.9; 77.7; 81.2; 89.7; 108.6; 110.4; 106.4\n- Base money (end of period, percent change): 11.2; 19.6; 7.7; 21.7; 10.4\n- Broad money (end of period, percent change): 23.0; 14.4; 13.2; 13.2\n- Credit to nongovernment (end of period, percent change): 8.4; -0.5; 10.6; 17.7\n- Current account balance (percent of GDP): -1.9; -5.3; -7.2; -16.5; -12.6; -5.4\n- Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars): 30.9; 28.5; 40.5; 43.8; 53.4; 52.8; 55.6\n- Months of next year's imports of goods and services: 6.3\n- Goods exports (annual volume change, percent): 39.0; -37.5; -8.5; 16.8; 14.9; 14.3\n- Goods imports (annual volume change, percent): 15.1; -29.7; 18.5; 19.3\n- Goods terms of trade (percent change): -8.4; -11.6; 3.6; 0.5; 0.4\n- Exchange rate Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (end of period): 27.3; 36.6; 38.0; 42.0; …\n- Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (period average): 32.3; 40.2\n- Real effective rate (CPI-based, percent change): 2.6; 3.2; -6.7; -6.5\n- Memorandum items:\n  - Per capita GDP / Population (2017): US$2,640 / 44.8 million\n  - Literacy / Poverty rate (2022 est 3/): 100 percent / 25 percent perpercentpercent\n\nIMF Communications Department; Press Release No. 25/227\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/30/pr-25227-ukraine-imf-completes-8th-rev-of-ext-arrang-under-eff"
    }
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    "Published: June 30, 2025",
    "The Executive Board completed the Eighth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine on June 30, 2025.",
    "The completion enabled a disbursement of about US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.37 billion) to Ukraine, to be channeled for budget support.",
    "This disbursement brings total disbursements under the IMF-supported program to US$10.6 billion.",
    "Ukraine’s 48-month EFF has access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to about US$15.5 billion, or 577 percent of quota) and was approved on March 31, 2023.",
    "The IMF-supported program forms part of an international support package totaling US$152.9 billion in the program’s baseline scenario.",
    "Ukraine met all end-March and continuous quantitative performance criteria for the Eighth Review, the prior action, and two structural benchmarks.",
    "Prior action completed: submission to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of a detailed reform plan for the State Customs Service (SCS).",
    "Two structural benchmarks completed: tax reporting for digital platform operators; publication of the external audit of NABU.",
    "Four new structural benchmarks established:",
    "Timelines for some other structural benchmarks (including appointment of the head of the SCS) were reset by the IMF Executive Board to allow more time for completion.",
    "Authorities requested a rephasing of access to IMF financing over the remainder of 2025 to better align with updated balance of payments needs; the overall size of the program remains unchanged.",
    "The 2025 growth forecast maintained at 2–3 percent.",
    "Drivers noted: a smaller electricity deficit offset by lower gas production and weaker agricultural exports.",
    "The war necessitates a supplementary budget for 2025.",
    "The medium-term fiscal path has been revised to reflect authorities’ policy intentions on revenue mobilization and expenditure prioritization.",
    "The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has maintained a tight monetary policy to respond to still high inflation; inflation expectations remain anchored.",
    "FX reserves described as adequate, sustained by continued sizeable external support.",
    "Outlook characterized as subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.",
    "Full and timely disbursement of external support during the program period remains indispensable for macroeconomic stability.",
    "The Fund-supported program is reported as fully financed with a cumulative external financing envelope of US$153 billion in the baseline scenario and US$165 billion in the downside scenario over the 4-year program period; this includes full utilization of approximately US$50 billion from the G7’s ERA initiative.",
    "Fiscal sustainability and meeting elevated priority expenditures over the medium term require:",
    "Completion of the debt restructuring strategy in line with the program’s debt sustainability objectives is essential to create room for priority expenditures, reduce fiscal risks, and restore debt sustainability.",
    "Given still elevated inflation, the tight monetary policy stance is appropriate; the NBU should be ready to tighten further if inflation expectations deteriorate.",
    "Greater exchange rate flexibility will help strengthen economic resilience while safeguarding reserves.",
    "The financial sector remains stable but vigilance is needed; operational and governance weaknesses in the security markets regulator need urgent attention.",
    "Closing gaps in capital markets infrastructure is key to attracting foreign private capital for post-war reconstruction.",
    "Sustained progress in anticorruption and governance reforms remains crucial; completed audit of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau is important, and additional efforts are required including amending the criminal procedures code, appointing the new head of the Economic Security Bureau, and strengthening AML/CFT frameworks.",
    "Nominal GDP (billions of Ukrainian hryvnias): 5,451; 5,239; 6,628; 7,659; 8,866; 10,192; 11,322",
    "Real GDP (percent change): 3.4; -28.8; 5.5; 2.9; 2-3; 4.5; 4.8",
    "Contributions to Real GDP (percent points):",
    "GDP deflator (percent change): 24.8; 34.9; 19.9; 12.3; 13.5; 10.0; 6.0",
    "Unemployment rate (ILO; percent): 9.8; 24.5; 19.1; 13.1; 11.6; 10.2; 9.4",
    "Consumer prices (period average): 20.2; 12.9; 6.5; 12.6; 7.6; 5.3",
    "Consumer prices (end of period): 26.6; 5.1; 12.0; 9.0; 7.0; 5.0",
    "Nominal wages (average): 20.8; 1.0; 20.1; 23.1; 17.4; 13.7; 10.8",
    "Real wages (average): 10.5; -16.0; 6.4; 15.6; 4.2; 5.7",
    "Savings (percent of GDP): 12.5; 17.0; 11.4; 4.4; 18.3",
    "Investment (percent of GDP): 14.5; 12.1; 18.1; 18.6; 20.9; 22.6; 23.7",
    "General Government fiscal balance (percent of GDP): -4.0; -15.6; -19.3; -17.2; -21.3; -10.1; -4.6",
    "Fiscal balance, excl. grants (percent of GDP): -24.8; -25.8; -23.1; -22.1; -10.4; -5.6",
    "Public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 48.9; 77.7; 81.2; 89.7; 108.6; 110.4; 106.4",
    "Base money (end of period, percent change): 11.2; 19.6; 7.7; 21.7; 10.4",
    "Broad money (end of period, percent change): 23.0; 14.4; 13.2; 13.2",
    "Credit to nongovernment (end of period, percent change): 8.4; -0.5; 10.6; 17.7",
    "Current account balance (percent of GDP): -1.9; -5.3; -7.2; -16.5; -12.6; -5.4",
    "Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars): 30.9; 28.5; 40.5; 43.8; 53.4; 52.8; 55.6",
    "Months of next year's imports of goods and services: 6.3",
    "Goods exports (annual volume change, percent): 39.0; -37.5; -8.5; 16.8; 14.9; 14.3",
    "Goods imports (annual volume change, percent): 15.1; -29.7; 18.5; 19.3",
    "Goods terms of trade (percent change): -8.4; -11.6; 3.6; 0.5; 0.4",
    "Exchange rate Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (end of period): 27.3; 36.6; 38.0; 42.0; …",
    "Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (period average): 32.3; 40.2",
    "Real effective rate (CPI-based, percent change): 2.6; 3.2; -6.7; -6.5",
    "Memorandum items:",
    "[Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2023/special-drawing-rights-sdr)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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