## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with France

_IMF News, July 14, 2025_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 14, 2025

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### Economic performance and near-term outlook
- Real GDP grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, supported by the impact of the Paris Olympics and temporarily boosted services and consumption, despite rising household savings rates.
- Real GDP projected growth:
  - 2025: 0.6 percent
  - 2026: 1.0 percent
  - 2027: 1.2 percent
- Drivers and risks:
  - 2025 slowdown reflects trade tensions, weak growth in trading partners, market volatility, high uncertainty, and subdued external and domestic demand.
  - Downside risks: deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and domestic policy uncertainty.
  - Upside potential: easing trade tensions and renewed structural reform momentum that could support business and consumer confidence.
- Inflation and labor market:
  - Disinflationary process progressing well; CPI (year average) and GDP deflator indicators show decline.
  - Labor market remains robust.

### Fiscal position and public debt
- Fiscal stance in 2024 was expansionary due to lower-than-expected revenues, overruns in local governments and social security, and rising debt service payments.
- General government balance (percent of GDP):
  - 2022: -4.7
  - 2023: -5.4
  - 2024: -5.8
  - 2025: -5.7
  - 2026: -6.0
- Revenue (percent of GDP): 53.7 (2022), 51.4 (2023), 51.9 (2024), 51.7 (2025), 51.5 (2026)
- Expenditure (percent of GDP): 58.4 (2022), 56.8 (2023), 57.2 (2024), 57.3 (2025), 57.4 (2026), 57.5 (2027)
- Primary balance (percent of GDP): -2.9 (2022), -3.7 (2023), -3.8 (2024), -3.4 (2025), -3.5 (2026)
- Structural balance (percent of potential GDP): -4.2 (2022), -5.3 (2023), -5.2 (2024), -5.5 (2025)
- General government gross debt (percent of GDP): 111.4 (2022), 109.6 (2023), 113.1 (2024), 116.5 (2025), 119.1 (2026), 121.5 (2027)
- Executive Board view:
  - Authorities’ medium-term fiscal adjustment is appropriate to place debt on a downward path.
  - Urgent need to approve a credible and well-designed package of additional measures.
  - Fiscal consolidation should prioritize rationalizing current spending with concerted action across central, local, and social security levels and include robust contingency plans.

### Financial sector resilience and FSAP findings
- IMF’s 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) assessment: banking sector demonstrated resilience to recent shocks, maintaining healthy capital and liquidity buffers.
- Executive Directors’ observations:
  - Financial stability risks remain contained; system shows resilience under severe FSAP stress tests.
  - Support for continued efforts to enhance risk analysis and improve data quality, notably on interconnectedness of financial institutions.
  - Need to ensure supervisory authorities have adequate resources to meet evolving needs.
  - Encouragement for financial institutions to integrate cyber and climate risks into strategy, governance, and risk management.

### Structural reforms, productivity, and labor market policies
- Directors emphasized the importance of raising productivity growth to sustain economic prospects and facilitate fiscal consolidation.
- Recommended reform directions:
  - Better target state aid and R&D spending.
  - Enhance access to finance for productive firms.
  - Reduce regulatory burden.
  - Advance the EU Savings and Investments Union to support reforms.
- Labor market and social policy recommendations:
  - Promote employment and job quality to support digital and green transitions.
  - Further social benefit reforms to enhance work incentives and reduce career fragmentation.
  - Strengthen human capital, increase women’s labor force participation, and better integrate migrants into the labor market.

### Balance of payments and external sector indicators
- Current account (percent of GDP): -1.2 (2022), -1.0 (2023), 0.4 (2024), -0.5 (2025)
- Trade balance of goods and services (percent of GDP): -2.6 (2022), -1.4 (2023), -0.7 (2024), -0.8 (2025)
- Exports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 36.6 (2022), 34.3 (2023), 33.9 (2024), 33.7 (2025), 33.2 (2026), 33.0 (2027)
- Imports of goods and services (percent of GDP): -39.2 (2022), -35.7 (2023), -34.0 (2024), -34.4 (2025), -33.7 (2026)
- Official reserves (US$ billion): 100.4 (2022), 79.2 (2023), 78.4 (2024)
- Exchange rate and competitiveness indicators:
  - Euro per U.S. dollar, period average: 0.95 (2022), 0.92 (2023)
  - NEER, ULC-styled (2005=100, +=appreciation): 95.9 (2022), 97.0 (2023), 97.3 (2024)
  - REER, ULC-based (2005=100, +=appreciation): 90.7 (2022), 90.5 (2023), 91.7 (2024)

### Labor market and credit indicators
- Unemployment rate (percent): 7.3 (2022), 7.4 (2023), 7.7 (2024), 7.5 (2025)
- Employment and labor force: Employment change -0.3 (2022), 0.2 (2023); Labor force change 0.0 (2022)
- Growth of credit to the private non-financial sector: 3.6 (year not specified)
- Money market rate (Euro area): 0.3 (year not specified), 3.4 (year not specified)
- Government bond yield, 10-year: 1.7 (year not specified), 3.0 (year not specified)

### Executive Board conclusions and next steps
- Executive Directors welcomed resilience of the economy, robust labor market, and declining inflation.
- Emphasis on urgent need to strengthen public finances and pursue structural reforms amid significant domestic and external headwinds.
- Board supported continued consensus-building to advance fiscal and structural reforms while ensuring fairness and equity.
- It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with France will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.

*Source: IMF press release, July 14, 2025.*

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## References

- [France and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/FRA/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [www.imf.org/France](http://www.imf.org/France)
- [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/07/11/pr-25249-france-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation_