{ "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Singapore", "publication": "IMF News, July 16, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/07/14/pr-25250-singapore-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/07/14/pr-25250-singapore-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/07/14/pr-25250-singapore-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md", "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Singapore", "publishDate": "2025-07-16", "sections": [ { "heading": "Recent economic developments", "content": "- Growth increased to 4.4 percent in 2024, up from 1.8 percent in 2023, supported by strong private consumption and an upturn in the global technology cycle.\n- GDP contracted by 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis in 2025Q1, driven by a slowdown in externally-oriented sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade.\n- Disinflation continued, with inflation falling below 2 percent at end-2024 and further in early 2025.\n- Two-year ahead inflation expectations based on consensus forecasts remain anchored just under 2 percent.\n- Labor market: advance estimate unemployment rate increased from 1.9 percent in December 2024 to 2.1 percent in March 2025.\n- Current account balance recorded a surplus of 17.5 percent of GDP in 2024, decreasing from 17.7 percent of GDP in 2023, led by a decline in the goods surplus.\n- Banking system: capital adequacy ratio at 18.9 percent in 2025Q1; banks remain profitable with strong liquidity coverage and net stable funding ratios for Domestic Systemically Important Banks.\n- Investment funds (one-fourth of total assets of non-bank financial institutions) met investor redemption requests in an orderly manner during high market volatility in August 2024 and April 2025." }, { "heading": "Executive Board assessment and risks", "content": "- Directors commended the resilience of Singapore’s economy and the authorities’ strong policy framework.\n- Near-term outlook: growth projected to slow sharply amid ongoing trade tensions, while inflation is expected to stay muted.\n- Downside risks to growth are tilted from potentially escalating trade tensions and tightening global financial conditions.\n- Policy guidance:\n - Monetary policy: further easing of monetary policy is warranted in the near term given disinflationary pressures and slowing growth; policy should remain vigilant and data dependent due to large uncertainty and two-sided inflation risks.\n - Fiscal policy: the expansionary stance in the FY2025 budget appropriately supports activity; Singapore has substantial fiscal space to deploy temporary and targeted support if downside risks materialize.\n - Medium-term fiscal strategy: accommodate rising medium term spending needs by reducing the fiscal surplus within the balanced budget rule, gradually phasing out untargeted transfers, and increasing infrastructure spending.\n- External position: staff assesses Singapore’s external position remained substantially stronger in 2024 than warranted by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies; many Directors cautioned about uncertainty given Singapore’s unique characteristics and urged care in communication.\n- Financial stability: current tight macroprudential policy should continue to prevent housing-related systemic risks; vigilance required on cross-border and foreign exchange exposures, a small number of highly leveraged corporates and households, exposures to commercial real estate, and non-bank financial institution–bank connections.\n- Structural and social policies: welcomed authorities’ steps to promote a stronger and more inclusive economy, including a temporary financial support scheme for involuntarily unemployed workers, reskilling efforts, helping firms adopt AI technologies, and investments in climate resilient infrastructure.\n- AML/CFT: continued efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework remain important." }, { "heading": "Key projections and selected indicators (from Table 1)", "content": "- Real GDP growth:\n - 2019: 1.3\n - 2020: -3.8\n - 2021: 9.8\n - 2022: 4.1\n - 2023: 1.8\n - 2024: 4.4\n - 2025: 1.7 (projection)\n - 2026: (projection column present)\n- Total domestic demand growth:\n - 2019: 1.9\n - 2020: -9.3\n - 2021: 11.9\n - 2022: 5.3\n - 2023: -2.2\n - 2024: 7.2\n - 2025: 2.9\n - 2026: 2.6\n- Population (2024): 6.0 million\n- Nominal GDP (2024): US$547.5 billion\n- GDP per capita (2024): US$90,689\n- Current account balance (US$ billions):\n - 2019: 57.9\n - 2020: 61.1\n - 2021: 86.4\n - 2022: 93.8\n - 2023: 89.4\n - 2024: 96.0\n - 2025: 98.5 (projection)\n- Current account balance (in percent of GDP, selected years):\n - 2019: 15.4\n - 2020: 19.8\n - 2021: 18.4\n - 2022: (shown)\n- Gross official reserves (US$ billions):\n - 2019: 279.5\n - 2020: 362.3\n - 2021: 417.9\n - 2022: 289.5\n - 2023: 351.0\n - 2024: 371.4\n - 2025: 420.4 (projection)\n - 2026: 462.1 (projection)\n- Gross national saving (percent of GDP):\n - 2019: 39.9\n - 2020: 40.3\n - 2021: 43.8\n - 2022: 40.6\n - 2023: 38.9\n - 2024: 39.7\n - 2025: 39.2 (projection)\n - 2026: 39.0 (projection)\n- Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP):\n - 2019: 24.5\n - 2020: 22.8\n - 2021: 24.0\n - 2022: 22.2\n - 2023: 21.2\n - 2024: 22.1\n- Central government finances (percent of GDP), selected items:\n - Revenue (2024): 18.8\n - Revenue (2025 projection): 19.6\n - Revenue (2026 projection): 19.9\n - Expenditure (2024): 16.2\n - Expenditure (2025 projection): 17.1\n - Net lending/borrowing and primary balance series presented in table.\n- Public Debt to GDP (percent):\n - 2019: 124.9\n - 2020: 146.3\n - 2021: 132.6\n - 2022: 153.9\n - 2023: 170.8\n - 2024: 173.1\n - 2025 (projection): 174.9\n - 2026 (projection): 176.0\n- Banking sector indicators:\n - Capital adequacy ratio (2025Q1): 18.9 percent\n - Liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio of Domestic Systemically Important Banks: comfortably meeting the minimum requirements (exact figures in source table context).\n- Main goods exports (2024, percent of total non-oil goods exports):\n - machinery & transport equip: 65.0 percent\n - chemical products: 12.4 percent\n - misc. manuf. articles: 10.3 percent\n- Top three destinations for goods exports (2024, percent of gross goods exports):\n - The Chinese mainland: 14.0 percent\n - Hong Kong SAR: 11.0 percent\n - Malaysia: 10.4 percent" }, { "heading": "Policy recommendations and authorities’ actions highlighted by Directors", "content": "- Monetary policy:\n - Further easing warranted in the near term given disinflationary pressures and slowing growth.\n - Maintain vigilance and data-dependence due to large uncertainty and two-sided inflation risks.\n- Fiscal policy:\n - Expansionary FY2025 budget appropriately supports activity.\n - Retain capacity to deploy temporary and targeted fiscal support if downside risks materialize.\n - Accommodate rising medium term spending needs by reducing the fiscal surplus within the balanced budget rule, phasing out untargeted transfers, and increasing infrastructure spending.\n- Macroprudential and financial sector policies:\n - Continue tight macroprudential policy to avoid housing-related systemic risks.\n - Remain vigilant on cross-border and foreign exchange exposures, highly leveraged corporates and households, commercial real estate exposures, and non-bank financial institution–bank links.\n - Step up stress testing and contingency planning.\n - Continue efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework.\n- Structural and social policies:\n - Continue efforts to raise public investment and strengthen social safety nets.\n - Continue temporary financial support for involuntarily unemployed workers, reskilling programs, and support for firms adopting AI technologies.\n - Invest in climate resilient infrastructure.\n\nIMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Singapore (Press Release No. 25/250), July 16, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Singapore and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/07/14/pr-25250-singapore-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/07/14/pr-25250-singapore-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/07/14/pr-25250-singapore-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/07/14/pr-25250-singapore-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: July 16, 2025", "Growth increased to 4.4 percent in 2024, up from 1.8 percent in 2023, supported by strong private consumption and an upturn in the global technology cycle.", "GDP contracted by 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis in 2025Q1, driven by a slowdown in externally-oriented sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade.", "Disinflation continued, with inflation falling below 2 percent at end-2024 and further in early 2025.", "Two-year ahead inflation expectations based on consensus forecasts remain anchored just under 2 percent.", "Labor market: advance estimate unemployment rate increased from 1.9 percent in December 2024 to 2.1 percent in March 2025.", "Current account balance recorded a surplus of 17.5 percent of GDP in 2024, decreasing from 17.7 percent of GDP in 2023, led by a decline in the goods surplus.", "Banking system: capital adequacy ratio at 18.9 percent in 2025Q1; banks remain profitable with strong liquidity coverage and net stable funding ratios for Domestic Systemically Important Banks.", "Investment funds (one-fourth of total assets of non-bank financial institutions) met investor redemption requests in an orderly manner during high market volatility in August 2024 and April 2025.", "Directors commended the resilience of Singapore’s economy and the authorities’ strong policy framework.", "Near-term outlook: growth projected to slow sharply amid ongoing trade tensions, while inflation is expected to stay muted.", "Downside risks to growth are tilted from potentially escalating trade tensions and tightening global financial conditions.", "Policy guidance:", "External position: staff assesses Singapore’s external position remained substantially stronger in 2024 than warranted by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies; many Directors cautioned about uncertainty given Singapore’s unique characteristics and urged care in communication.", "Financial stability: current tight macroprudential policy should continue to prevent housing-related systemic risks; vigilance required on cross-border and foreign exchange exposures, a small number of highly leveraged corporates and households, exposures to commercial real estate, and non-bank financial institution–bank connections.", "Structural and social policies: welcomed authorities’ steps to promote a stronger and more inclusive economy, including a temporary financial support scheme for involuntarily unemployed workers, reskilling efforts, helping firms adopt AI technologies, and investments in climate resilient infrastructure.", "AML/CFT: continued efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework remain important.", "Real GDP growth:", "Total domestic demand growth:", "Population (2024): 6.0 million", "Nominal GDP (2024): US$547.5 billion", "GDP per capita (2024): US$90,689", "Current account balance (US$ billions):", "Current account balance (in percent of GDP, selected years):", "Gross official reserves (US$ billions):", "Gross national saving (percent of GDP):", "Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP):", "Central government finances (percent of GDP), selected items:", "Public Debt to GDP (percent):", "Banking sector indicators:", "Main goods exports (2024, percent of total non-oil goods exports):", "Top three destinations for goods exports (2024, percent of gross goods exports):", "Monetary policy:", "Fiscal policy:", "Macroprudential and financial sector policies:", "Structural and social policies:", "[Singapore and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SGP/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/07/14/pr-25250-singapore-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md", "json": 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