## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation and Completes Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility with Zambia _IMF News, August 5, 2025_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation and Completes Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility with Zambia](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/08/05/pr25276-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-con-and-completes-5th-review-ecf-zambia) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/08/05/pr25276-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-con-and-completes-5th-review-ecf-zambia/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/08/05/pr25276-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-con-and-completes-5th-review-ecf-zambia/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/08/05/pr25276-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-con-and-completes-5th-review-ecf-zambia/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: August 5, 2025 --- ### Overview - On July 25, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation and fifth review of Zambia’s 38-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, approved on August 31, 2022, and financing assurances review for Zambia. - Completion of this review allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 139.88 million (about US$184 million), bringing Zambia’s total disbursement under the ECF-supported program to SDR 1132.74 million (about US$1.55 billion). - The ECF Arrangement seeks to entrench macroeconomic stability, restore debt and fiscal sustainability, enhance public governance, and foster inclusive growth to improve the livelihood of the Zambian people. - The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. ### Program performance - Performance status: - All end-December 2024 quantitative targets met. - Most end-March 2025 indicative targets met. - Three end-March 2025 indicative targets missed: non-mining tax revenues, arrears clearance, and reserve accumulation. - Structural benchmarks (SBs) for this review: - Six out of fourteen SBs met. - Four SBs completed with delays. - Four SBs (on debt office procedures, along with financial sector and governance reforms) proposed to be reset to the next review. - Prior actions and waivers: - The recent adoption of an amended 2025 budget in line with program commitments satisfies the prior action set for this review. - Executive Board granted a waiver for nonobservance of the continuous performance criterion on contracting non-concessional external debt in the fourth quarter of 2024. ### Economic outlook and risks - Growth: - Real GDP growth estimated at 4 percent in 2024. - Real GDP growth projected at 5.8 percent in 2025 and 6.4 percent in 2026, 6.5 percent in 2027. - Inflation: - Headline inflation expected to decline to 11 percent by end-2025. - Annual average inflation figures: 15.0 percent (2024), 14.2 percent (2025), 9.2 percent (2026), 7.4 percent (2027). - End-of-year inflation figures: 16.7 percent (2024), 11.1 percent (2025), 7.9 percent (2026), 7.0 percent (2027). - Key drivers: - Recovery supported by stronger mining and services performance and continued recovery in agricultural production following the historic drought. - Electricity access prioritized to productive sectors. - Risks: - Outlook subject to significant downside risks stemming from global uncertainty. - Medium-term prospects depend on scaling up mining investment, sustained fiscal discipline, and structural reforms to promote private sector activity, economic diversification, and more inclusive growth. ### Debt position and restructuring - Public debt assessment: - Zambia’s public debt is assessed as sustainable, but the country remains at high risk of overall and external debt distress. - Although at high risk because of near-term breaches of the DSA thresholds, it is expected to reach a moderate risk of external debt distress over the medium term. - Restructuring progress: - Authorities have reached agreements in principle with most external commercial creditors. - Efforts ongoing to advance bilateral agreements with official bilateral creditors, in line with program parameters and comparability of treatment as defined by the Official Creditors Committee. - Directors welcomed good progress on external commercial and official debt restructuring and encouraged prompt finalization of all restructuring agreements. ### Executive Board Assessment — main policy advice and priorities - Fiscal policy and revenue: - Underscored importance of revenue-led fiscal consolidation to address fiscal and growth challenges. - Welcomed new revenue measures and spending reprioritization in the revised 2025 budget. - Called for intensified domestic revenue mobilization over the medium term to create space for priority social and capital spending while strengthening debt sustainability. - Emphasized broadening the tax base and improving tax administration. - Encouraged further strengthening of public financial management to improve efficiency, transparency, and credibility of fiscal operations. - Emphasized the need for sustained budget discipline ahead of the 2026 elections. - Monetary and financial policy: - Recommended the Bank of Zambia (BOZ) maintain an appropriately tight monetary-policy stance to combat inflation. - Supported BOZ’s data-driven approach and urged strengthening monetary policy transmission to anchor inflation expectations. - Supported efforts to strengthen liquidity operations, deepen financial markets, and underscored importance of reserve accumulation and sustained exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks. - Encouraged further reforms to enhance financial stability and inclusion. - Structural and governance reforms: - Stressed structural reforms to stimulate private sector activity and economic diversification: improve business environment, raise labor productivity, enable firm expansion, reform agricultural support mechanisms, address informality, infrastructure gaps, and limited access to finance. - Underscored importance of strengthening governance, promptly adopting the new Anti-Corruption Act, and strengthening independence of the Anti-Corruption Commission. - Reiterated calls for enhanced transparency in the energy sector and resource management. ### Key statistics and selected economic indicators - Population (millions, 2024): 21.1 - Per capita GDP ($, 2024): 1,246 - Quota (SDR millions, % total): 978.2 - Poverty rate (2022): 64.3 - Main products and exports: Copper - Key export markets: China - Output (Real GDP growth %): - 2021: 6.2 - 2022: 5.2 - 2023: 5.4 - 2024 Est.: 4.0 - 2025 Proj.: 5.8 - 2026 Proj.: 6.4 - 2027 Proj.: 6.5 - Prices (Inflation annual average %): - 2021: 22.0 - 2022: 11.0 - 2023: 10.9 - 2024: 15.0 - 2025: 14.2 - 2026: 9.2 - 2027: 7.4 - Central government finances (% GDP): - Revenue: 2021: 22.4; 2022: 20.4; 2023: 21.9; 2024: 22.2; 2025: 22.8; 2026: 23.0; 2027: 23.3 - Expenditure: 2021: 30.5; 2022: 28.2; 2023: 27.4; 2024: 25.5; 2025: 28.0; 2026: 26.7; 2027: 24.9 - Fiscal balance (cash basis): 2021: -8.1; 2022: -7.8; 2023: -5.5; 2024: -3.3; 2025: -5.3; 2026: -3.7; 2027: -1.6 - Fiscal balance (commitment basis): 2021: -13.9; 2022: -5.4; 2023: -4.5; 2024: -1.9; 2025: -2.3; 2026: -2.1; 2027: -0.3 - Public debt (% GDP): 2021: 112.1; 2022: 110.9; 2023: 133.4; 2024: 123.9; 2025: 91.9; 2026: 79.0; 2027: 69.4 - Money and Credit: - Broad money (% change): 2021: 3.7; 2022: 24.5; 2023: 24.6; 2024: 19.1; 2025: 14.7; 2026: 13.6 - Credit to private sector (% change): 2021: 34.2; 2022: 41.3; 2023: 20.5; 2024: 52.1; 2025: 29.7; 2026: 12.7 - 3-month Treasury bill interest rate (%): 2021: 12.8; 2022: 9.6; 2023: 9.8; 2024: 10.1 - Balance of payments: - Current account (% GDP): 2021: 11.9; 2022: -3.0; 2023: -2.6; 2024: 1.3; 2025: 2.7 - FDI (% GDP): 2021: 3.1; 2022: 0.7; 2023: 1.8; 2024: 3.8; 2025: 4.5 - Reserves (in months of imports): 2021: 3.3; 2022: 3.4; 2023: 4.2; 2024: 4.4; 2025: 4.7 - Exchange rate: - REER (% change): 2021: 5.0; 2022: 30.3; 2023: -7.1; 2024: -13.3 *IMF Press Release No. 25/276, August 5, 2025.* --- ## References - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ZMB](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ZMB) - [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/08/05/pr25276-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-con-and-completes-5th-review-ecf-zambia_