{ "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Tuvalu", "publication": "IMF News, September 12, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md", "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Tuvalu on September 3rd, 2025.", "publishDate": "2025-09-12", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- The Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation for Tuvalu on September 3rd, 2025.\n- Press Release No. 25/293; publication date on the page: September 12, 2025.\n- Media relations: PRESS OFFICER: Pavis Devahasadin; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org; @IMFSpokesperson" }, { "heading": "Economic recovery and inflation", "content": "- Tuvalu’s economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic after a sharp contraction during 2020-22.\n- Real GDP growth:\n - 2023: 4.0 percent\n - 2024: 3.1 percent\n- Inflation:\n - pandemic peak of 14 percent in 2022Q3\n - 2024: 1.2 percent\n - easing attributed to global commodity prices and easing of shipping bottlenecks" }, { "heading": "Outlook and growth projections", "content": "- Short-term projections:\n - 2025: GDP growth projected at 3 percent\n - 2026: GDP growth projected at 2.6 percent\n- Medium-term projection:\n - Growth projected to moderate gradually to below 2 percent\n - Drivers of moderation: sluggish productivity growth, increasing emigration, and vulnerability to climate events\n- Support for near-term growth: externally-financed infrastructure projects including the new phase of Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project and an increase in public investment\n- Downside risks: heightened global uncertainty and increased downside risks despite limited direct impact of recent trade tensions" }, { "heading": "Fiscal and external balances", "content": "- Volatility persists in fiscal and external balances due to heavy reliance on fishing license fees and grants\n- Table highlights (percent of GDP unless noted):\n - Revenue:\n - 2022: 100.7\n - 2023: 154.1\n - 2024: 110.2\n - 2025: 122.9\n - 2026: 118.3\n - Non-grants revenue:\n - 2022: 82.0\n - 2023: 82.3\n - 2024: 79.0\n - 2025: 80.6\n - of which fishing license fees:\n - 2022: 48.4\n - 2023: 57.6\n - 2024: 44.6\n - 2025: 41.6\n - Grants:\n - 2022: 18.7\n - 2023: 53.4\n - 2024: 27.8\n - 2025: 43.9\n - Expenditure:\n - 2022: 115.3\n - 2023: 138.8\n - 2024: 118.4\n - 2025: 122.3\n - Net lending/borrowing:\n - 2022: -14.6\n - 2023: 15.3\n - 2024: -8.2\n - 2025: 0.6\n - 2026: -3.0\n - Net lending/borrowing excl. grants:\n - 2022: -33.3\n - 2023: -38.1\n - 2024: -36.1\n - 2025: -43.3\n - Domestic current balance 1/:\n - 2022: -71.3\n - 2023: -84.6\n - 2024: -73.6\n - 2025: -74.2\n - Tuvalu Trust Fund (in percent of GDP):\n - 2022: 234.6\n - 2023: 266.5\n - 2024: 297.7\n - 2025: 288.6\n - Gross public debt:\n - 2022: 11.0\n - 2023: 7.7\n - 2024: 7.5\n - 2025: 7.4\n - Nominal GDP (In AU$ million):\n - 2022: 78.1\n - 2023: 76.1\n - 2024: 85.5\n - 2025: 90.0\n - 2026: 94.6\n- Balance of payments highlights (in percent of GDP):\n - Current account balance:\n - 2022: -0.3\n - 2023: 7.3\n - 2024: 14.9\n - 2025: 5.5\n - 2026: -0.4\n - Goods and services balance:\n - 2022: -101.6\n - 2023: -112.8\n - 2024: -107.0\n - 2025: -109.8\n - Gross reserves (In AU$ million):\n - 2022: 123.7\n - 2023: 105.8\n - 2024: 127.8\n - 2025: 137.5\n - Reserves in months of prospective imports:\n - 2022: 13\n - 2023: 14\n - 2024: 11\n - 2025: 12" }, { "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations", "content": "- Directors welcomed the ongoing recovery but noted increased downside risks and significant structural challenges from remoteness, high dependence on external revenue and grants, rising emigration, and vulnerability to climate change.\n- Fiscal strategy priorities:\n - Enhance fiscal sustainability\n - Reduce the deficit and ensure adequate buffers\n - Mobilize revenues, rationalize expenditure, and reprioritize resources\n - Improve public financial management to reduce volatility and fiscal risks\n- Financial sector and inclusion:\n - Establish an effective regulatory and supervisory framework\n - Enhance financial inclusion\n - Improve connectivity to the global payment system, including joining the Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering and modernizing financial services\n - Strengthen AML/CFT framework and safeguard correspondent banking relationships\n - Enforce reporting requirements, consolidate prudential standards, and enhance risk monitoring\n- Structural reforms to boost growth and resilience:\n - Prioritize development of reclaimed land\n - Enhance the efficiency of public services\n - Strengthen state-owned enterprise governance and performance\n - Improve infrastructure and explore economic diversification\n - Enhance human capital and facilitate female labor force participation to mitigate emigration impacts\n - Enhance resilience to climate change and strengthen disaster preparedness\n- Capacity development and close engagement with the Fund and development partners remain essential" }, { "heading": "Key social and economic indicators (selected)", "content": "- Population (2024 est.): 9,853\n- Poverty rate (2017): 26 percent\n- Per capita GDP (2024 est.): AU$8,680\n- Life expectancy (2023): 65 years\n- Main export: Fish\n- Primary school enrollment (2022, gross): 98 percent\n- Secondary school enrollment (2022, gross): 91 percent\n- Key export markets: Australia, Fiji, and New Zealand\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Tuvalu (Press Release No. 25/293), September 12, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Tuvalu and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: September 12, 2025", "The Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation for Tuvalu on September 3rd, 2025.", "Press Release No. 25/293; publication date on the page: September 12, 2025.", "Media relations: PRESS OFFICER: Pavis Devahasadin; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org; @IMFSpokesperson", "Tuvalu’s economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic after a sharp contraction during 2020-22.", "Real GDP growth:", "Inflation:", "Short-term projections:", "Medium-term projection:", "Support for near-term growth: externally-financed infrastructure projects including the new phase of Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project and an increase in public investment", "Downside risks: heightened global uncertainty and increased downside risks despite limited direct impact of recent trade tensions", "Volatility persists in fiscal and external balances due to heavy reliance on fishing license fees and grants", "Table highlights (percent of GDP unless noted):", "Balance of payments highlights (in percent of GDP):", "Directors welcomed the ongoing recovery but noted increased downside risks and significant structural challenges from remoteness, high dependence on external revenue and grants, rising emigration, and vulnerability to climate change.", "Fiscal strategy priorities:", "Financial sector and inclusion:", "Structural reforms to boost growth and resilience:", "Capacity development and close engagement with the Fund and development partners remain essential", "Population (2024 est.): 9,853", "Poverty rate (2017): 26 percent", "Per capita GDP (2024 est.): AU$8,680", "Life expectancy (2023): 65 years", "Main export: Fish", "Primary school enrollment (2022, gross): 98 percent", "Secondary school enrollment (2022, gross): 91 percent", "Key export markets: Australia, Fiji, and New Zealand", "[Tuvalu and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/TUV/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:06:48.302Z" }