## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Tuvalu

_IMF News, September 12, 2025_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: September 12, 2025

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### Overview
- The Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation for Tuvalu on September 3rd, 2025.
- Press Release No. 25/293; publication date on the page: September 12, 2025.
- Media relations: PRESS OFFICER: Pavis Devahasadin; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org; @IMFSpokesperson

### Economic recovery and inflation
- Tuvalu’s economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic after a sharp contraction during 2020-22.
- Real GDP growth:
  - 2023: 4.0 percent
  - 2024: 3.1 percent
- Inflation:
  - pandemic peak of 14 percent in 2022Q3
  - 2024: 1.2 percent
  - easing attributed to global commodity prices and easing of shipping bottlenecks

### Outlook and growth projections
- Short-term projections:
  - 2025: GDP growth projected at 3 percent
  - 2026: GDP growth projected at 2.6 percent
- Medium-term projection:
  - Growth projected to moderate gradually to below 2 percent
  - Drivers of moderation: sluggish productivity growth, increasing emigration, and vulnerability to climate events
- Support for near-term growth: externally-financed infrastructure projects including the new phase of Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project and an increase in public investment
- Downside risks: heightened global uncertainty and increased downside risks despite limited direct impact of recent trade tensions

### Fiscal and external balances
- Volatility persists in fiscal and external balances due to heavy reliance on fishing license fees and grants
- Table highlights (percent of GDP unless noted):
  - Revenue:
    - 2022: 100.7
    - 2023: 154.1
    - 2024: 110.2
    - 2025: 122.9
    - 2026: 118.3
  - Non-grants revenue:
    - 2022: 82.0
    - 2023: 82.3
    - 2024: 79.0
    - 2025: 80.6
    - of which fishing license fees:
      - 2022: 48.4
      - 2023: 57.6
      - 2024: 44.6
      - 2025: 41.6
  - Grants:
    - 2022: 18.7
    - 2023: 53.4
    - 2024: 27.8
    - 2025: 43.9
  - Expenditure:
    - 2022: 115.3
    - 2023: 138.8
    - 2024: 118.4
    - 2025: 122.3
  - Net lending/borrowing:
    - 2022: -14.6
    - 2023: 15.3
    - 2024: -8.2
    - 2025: 0.6
    - 2026: -3.0
  - Net lending/borrowing excl. grants:
    - 2022: -33.3
    - 2023: -38.1
    - 2024: -36.1
    - 2025: -43.3
  - Domestic current balance 1/:
    - 2022: -71.3
    - 2023: -84.6
    - 2024: -73.6
    - 2025: -74.2
  - Tuvalu Trust Fund (in percent of GDP):
    - 2022: 234.6
    - 2023: 266.5
    - 2024: 297.7
    - 2025: 288.6
  - Gross public debt:
    - 2022: 11.0
    - 2023: 7.7
    - 2024: 7.5
    - 2025: 7.4
  - Nominal GDP (In AU$ million):
    - 2022: 78.1
    - 2023: 76.1
    - 2024: 85.5
    - 2025: 90.0
    - 2026: 94.6
- Balance of payments highlights (in percent of GDP):
  - Current account balance:
    - 2022: -0.3
    - 2023: 7.3
    - 2024: 14.9
    - 2025: 5.5
    - 2026: -0.4
  - Goods and services balance:
    - 2022: -101.6
    - 2023: -112.8
    - 2024: -107.0
    - 2025: -109.8
  - Gross reserves (In AU$ million):
    - 2022: 123.7
    - 2023: 105.8
    - 2024: 127.8
    - 2025: 137.5
  - Reserves in months of prospective imports:
    - 2022: 13
    - 2023: 14
    - 2024: 11
    - 2025: 12

### Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations
- Directors welcomed the ongoing recovery but noted increased downside risks and significant structural challenges from remoteness, high dependence on external revenue and grants, rising emigration, and vulnerability to climate change.
- Fiscal strategy priorities:
  - Enhance fiscal sustainability
  - Reduce the deficit and ensure adequate buffers
  - Mobilize revenues, rationalize expenditure, and reprioritize resources
  - Improve public financial management to reduce volatility and fiscal risks
- Financial sector and inclusion:
  - Establish an effective regulatory and supervisory framework
  - Enhance financial inclusion
  - Improve connectivity to the global payment system, including joining the Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering and modernizing financial services
  - Strengthen AML/CFT framework and safeguard correspondent banking relationships
  - Enforce reporting requirements, consolidate prudential standards, and enhance risk monitoring
- Structural reforms to boost growth and resilience:
  - Prioritize development of reclaimed land
  - Enhance the efficiency of public services
  - Strengthen state-owned enterprise governance and performance
  - Improve infrastructure and explore economic diversification
  - Enhance human capital and facilitate female labor force participation to mitigate emigration impacts
  - Enhance resilience to climate change and strengthen disaster preparedness
- Capacity development and close engagement with the Fund and development partners remain essential

### Key social and economic indicators (selected)
- Population (2024 est.): 9,853
- Poverty rate (2017): 26 percent
- Per capita GDP (2024 est.): AU$8,680
- Life expectancy (2023): 65 years
- Main export: Fish
- Primary school enrollment (2022, gross): 98 percent
- Secondary school enrollment (2022, gross): 91 percent
- Key export markets: Australia, Fiji, and New Zealand

*Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Tuvalu (Press Release No. 25/293), September 12, 2025.*

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## References

- [Tuvalu and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/TUV/index.htm)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/09/12/pr-25293-tuvalu-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation_