## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Belize

_IMF News, September 15, 2025_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: September 15, 2025

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### Executive summary and Board assessment
- The Executive Board completed the Article IV consultation on September 10, 2025; authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.
- Directors welcomed the strong recovery following the Covid 19 pandemic and improvements in social outcomes and financial stability.
- Directors stressed the need to reduce public debt, accelerate reforms to unlock potential growth, and build resilience to natural disasters.
- Directors recommended continued tailored policy advice and technical assistance to support implementation in Belize.

### Recent performance
- Real GDP expanded by 30.6 percent between 2021 and 2023 and grew by 8.1 percent in 2024.
- Inflation slowed to 1.0 percent in May 2025 from 4.0 percent in May 2024.
- Primary balance improved to 1.7 percent of GDP in FY2024.
- Public debt fell to 61.1 percent of GDP in 2024, after peaking at 103.3 percent of GDP in 2020; debt reduction was supported by a debt-for-marine protection swap and a negotiated discount on the debt with Petrocaribe.
- Key drivers of 2024 growth: tourism, trade, and transport.

### Outlook and projections
- Real GDP growth:
  - Expected to decelerate to 1.5 percent in 2025.
  - Projected to converge to potential of about 2 percent over the medium term, absent expanded hotel and flight capacity.
- Inflation:
  - Expected to converge to 1.3 percent over the medium term as external pressures ease.
- Current account:
  - Expected to narrow to about 1.2 percent of GDP over the medium term from 1.5 percent in 2024.
- International reserves:
  - Projected to rise to about 4 months of imports (from 3.5 in 2024) but remain below the ARA metric by 2030.
- Risks:
  - Tilted to the downside; stem from higher global policy uncertainty, increased trade barriers, higher-for-longer global interest rates, and increased or sustained climate-related disasters.
  - Upside from successful implementation of several large infrastructure projects.

### Fiscal stance and public debt dynamics
- Fiscal metrics (selected):
  - Revenue and grants: 24.0 (FY2024), projected 24.7 (2025) and 25.0 (2026).
  - Current non-interest expenditure: 16.2 (FY2024), projected 16.6 (2025) and 17.1 (2026).
  - Capital expenditure and net lending: 6.1 (FY2024), projected 7.4 (2025) and 7.6 (2026).
  - Primary balance: 0.6 (FY2024).
  - Overall balance: -1.2 (FY2024), projected -1.5 (2025) and -1.8 (2026).
- Public debt (percent of calendar year GDP):
  - 2021: 82.5
  - 2022: 66.8
  - 2023: 67.2
  - 2024: 61.1
  - 2025: 60.4
  - 2026: 59.3
  - 2030: 58.0
- Directors endorsed lowering public debt to below 50 percent of GDP and noted that the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to fall more slowly, requiring additional fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to reduce debt to 50 percent of GDP by 2030.

### Financial sector and reserves
- Directors welcomed the decline in systemic risks and encouraged continued vigilance to maintain financial stability.
- Recommendations:
  - Expedite operationalization of the Deposit Insurance Act to enhance the financial safety net.
  - Continue efforts to reduce the central bank’s holdings of government securities.
  - Improve private sector access to financing to boost investment.
  - Continue to address remaining gaps in the AML/CFT framework.

### Policy priorities and reform agenda
- Fiscal policy:
  - Enhanced revenue mobilization and reprioritization of current expenditure, including through pension reform.
  - Create fiscal space for priority spending on targeted social programs, crime prevention, and infrastructure.
  - Establish a medium term fiscal framework with clear targets and measures to underpin an effective Fiscal Responsibility Law.
- Structural reforms to accelerate growth:
  - Address structural barriers and capacity constraints in the tourism sector.
  - Increase female labor force participation.
  - Improve the business climate and competitiveness.
- Resilience:
  - Build buffers against future shocks and enhance resilience to natural disasters.
- Monetary/external policy:
  - Continue reserves accumulation to strengthen credibility of the currency peg.

### Key social and economic indicators (selected)
- Area (sq.km.): 22,860
- Population (thousands), 2024: 410.9
- GDP per capita, (current US$), 2023: 7,587
- Unemployment rate (percent), April 2025: 2.1
- Multidimensional poverty (percent of population), 2024: 22.1
- Gross international reserves (US$ millions):
  - 2021: 420
  - 2022: 482
  - 2023: 474
  - 2024: 498
  - 2025: 527
  - 2030: 721
- In months of imports (reserves):
  - 2021: 3.8
  - 2022: 3.9
  - 2023: 4.0

*IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Belize — September 15, 2025*

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## References

- [Belize and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/BLZ/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [www.imf.org/Belize](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/BLZ)
- [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/09/15/pr-25295---belize---imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation_