{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Colombia",
  "publication": "IMF News, September 30, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/09/30/pr25320-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-colombia",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Colombia on September 29, 2025.",
  "publishDate": "2025-09-30",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic outlook and projections",
      "content": "- Growth is projected to reach around 2½ percent in 2025 and moderate somewhat over the coming years.\n- IMF staff projections (selected):\n  - Real GDP: 2023: 0.7; 2024: 1.6; 2025: 2.3; 2026: 2.7; 2027: 2.9; 2028: 2.8.\n  - Potential GDP growth: 2.4 (2023); 2.6 (2024).\n  - Output Gap (percent): 0.5 (2023); -0.4 (2024); -0.3 (2025); -0.5 (2026); -0.2 (2027); 0.0 (2028).\n  - Consumer prices (average): 11.7 (2023); 6.6 (2024); 3.4 (2025).\n  - Consumer prices, end of period (eop): 9.3 (2023); 5.2 (2024); 4.4 (2025); 3.1 (2027).\n  - GDP deflator: 7.0 (2023); 6.0 (2024); 4.9 (2025); 3.5 (2026); 3.0 (2027).\n  - Current account (in percent of GDP): -2.3 (2023); -1.7 (2024); -2.6 (2025); -2.8 (2026); -3.0 (2027); -3.3 (2028).\n  - Gross international reserves (USD billion): 59.1 (2023); 62.7 (2024); 63.7 (2025); 64.6 (2026); 65.4 (2027).\n  - Public sector gross debt: 55.5 (2023); 61.2 (2024); 58.6 (2025); 61.4 (2026); 62.3 (2027); 61.6 (2028); 60.6 (2029); 59.5 (2030).\n  - Public sector external debt: 59.2 (2023); 53.3 (2024); 52.9 (2025); 52.1 (2026); 51.5 (2027).\n  - Gross domestic investment (in percent of GDP): 16.4 (2023); 16.8 (2024); 17.1 (2025); 17.4 (2026); 17.8 (2027); 18.2 (2028); 18.8 (2029); 19.3 (2030).\n- Inflation expectations and timing:\n  - Inflation is expected to ease gradually to about 4½ percent by end-2025 and reach the 3 percent target by early 2027 (conditional on tight monetary policy and the resumption of fiscal restraint).\n  - Table entries show consumer prices (average) falling to 3.4 in 2025 and end-period inflation at 4.4 in 2025."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal position and public debt",
      "content": "- The government invoked the escape clause to suspend the fiscal rule through 2027.\n- Fiscal dynamics and risks:\n  - Widening fiscal deficit and rising debt levels have led to elevated sovereign spreads and weak private investment amid policy uncertainties.\n  - Returning to the fiscal rule by 2028 will require substantial consolidation efforts.\n  - If consolidation proceeds as assumed, Directors judged Colombia’s gross public debt would remain sustainable over the medium term.\n- Fiscal balances (in percent of GDP) — selected:\n  - Central government (CG) balance: -4.2 (2023); -6.7 (2024); -7.1 (2025); -4.8 (2026); -3.2 (2027).\n  - Central government structural balance 2/: -6.8 (2023); -6.0 (2024); -4.6 (2025); -2.7 (2026).\n  - Consolidated public sector (CPS) balance 3/: -5.9 (2023); -6.5 (2024); -5.3 (2025); -3.7 (2026); -2.0 (2027); -1.8 (2028).\n  - CPS non-oil structural primary balance: -1.1 (2023); -1.9 (2024); 0.6 (2025).\n  - CPS fiscal impulse (excluding Social Security) 4/: -2.2 (2023); -1.3 (2024); -1.5 (2025); -0.1 (2026); 0.2 (2027)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy, reserves, and exchange rate",
      "content": "- Monetary policy stance:\n  - IMF Directors commended the central bank’s tight monetary policy stance, which has supported reducing inflation.\n  - Maintaining a tight monetary policy stance remains important to address persistent inflation pressures and upside risks; normalization should proceed cautiously and remain data-dependent.\n- Reserves and exchange-rate framework:\n  - International reserves remain adequate and continue to be strengthened, reaching 131 percent of the ARA metric by end-June 2025.\n  - Gross international reserves (USD billion) series in the staff table: 59.1 (2023); 62.7 (2024); 63.7 (2025).\n  - Directors agreed that Colombia’s flexible exchange rate regime should continue to play its role as a shock absorber and that foreign exchange intervention should remain limited to episodes of disorderly market conditions.\n  - Emphasis on safeguarding central bank independence."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and structural issues",
      "content": "- Financial sector resilience:\n  - Directors agreed the financial sector remains broadly resilient but highlighted the need for continued monitoring amid still-elevated real interest rates, rising sovereign exposures, and close bank–nonbank linkages.\n  - Encouraged continued progress in implementing the 2022 FSAP recommendations.\n- Pension fund governance:\n  - Stress on establishing a sound governance framework and prudent investment principles for the new public pension savings fund.\n- Long-term growth reforms:\n  - Directors recommended reforms to raise productivity, boost labor force participation, and diversify the economy.\n  - Noted the authorities’ ambitious energy transition plan and emphasized a well-designed and carefully phased transition to support sustainability and safeguard macroeconomic stability.\n  - Encouraged strengthening governance and transparency to enhance the investment climate."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and downside scenarios",
      "content": "- External risks:\n  - Tighter global financial conditions, rising trade barriers, stricter immigration policies, and heightened geopolitical tensions could dampen growth, disrupt exports, FDI, and supply chains, reduce remittances, and raise borrowing costs.\n- Domestic risks:\n  - Further delays in fiscal consolidation could raise concerns about unanchored fiscal policy, undermine investor confidence, and potentially trigger a sudden stop in capital inflows.\n  - Rising political uncertainties and intensification of violent crime and insecurity could weigh on economic activity and private sector development.\n- Executive Board view on policy credibility:\n  - Directors underscored the importance of implementing the authorities’ fiscal consolidation plan and maintaining agile policymaking to safeguard macroeconomic stability.\n  - They noted the fiscal policy and policy framework have weakened since the 2024 FCL request and that restoring credibility is essential to re-anchor expectations and lower borrowing costs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key social and demographic indicators (selected)",
      "content": "- Population (million), 2024: 51.6.\n- Per capita (US$), GDP 2024: 8,120.\n- Gini coefficient (national), 2024: 0.55.\n- Poverty rate (national), 2024: 31.8.\n- Unemployment rate, Dec. 2024 (NSA, percent): 10.2.\n- Life expectancy at birth (years), 2023: 77.7.\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Colombia (Press Release No. 25/320), September 29, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Colombia and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/Colombia\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/09/30/pr25320-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation-with-colombia"
    }
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    "Published: September 30, 2025",
    "Growth is projected to reach around 2½ percent in 2025 and moderate somewhat over the coming years.",
    "IMF staff projections (selected):",
    "Inflation expectations and timing:",
    "The government invoked the escape clause to suspend the fiscal rule through 2027.",
    "Fiscal dynamics and risks:",
    "Fiscal balances (in percent of GDP) — selected:",
    "Monetary policy stance:",
    "Reserves and exchange-rate framework:",
    "Financial sector resilience:",
    "Pension fund governance:",
    "Long-term growth reforms:",
    "External risks:",
    "Domestic risks:",
    "Executive Board view on policy credibility:",
    "Population (million), 2024: 51.6.",
    "Per capita (US$), GDP 2024: 8,120.",
    "Gini coefficient (national), 2024: 0.55.",
    "Poverty rate (national), 2024: 31.8.",
    "Unemployment rate, Dec. 2024 (NSA, percent): 10.2.",
    "Life expectancy at birth (years), 2023: 77.7.",
    "[Colombia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/COL/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/Colombia](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/COL)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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