{ "title": "Opportunity in a Time of Change", "publication": "IMF News, October 8, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser/index.md", "summary": "Join us as Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the curtain raiser speech for the 2025 Annual Meetings at the Milken Center on Wednesday, October 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET.", "publishDate": "2025-10-08", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Event: Curtain raiser speech for the 2025 Annual Meetings at the Milken Center.\n- Speaker: Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF.\n- Date and time: October 8, 2025 at 10:00 a.m. ET.\n- Tone: Assessment of global economic resilience amid deep transformations in geopolitics, technology, demographics, and climate; call for policies to expand opportunity, especially for youth." }, { "heading": "Assessment of current global economic state", "content": "- Short summary: \"Short answer: better than feared, but worse than we need.\"\n- Global growth: \"We see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next.\"\n- Uncertainty: \"Globally it has shot up and continues to climb. Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal and it is here to stay.\"\n- Resilience explained by four reasons:\n - One, improved policy fundamentals.\n - Two, private sector adaptability.\n - Three, less severe tariff outcomes than initially feared—for now.\n - Four, supportive financial conditions—for as long as they hold." }, { "heading": "Four drivers of resilience — details", "content": "- Improved policy fundamentals and global coordination:\n - Credible monetary policy, deeper local currency bond markets, new fiscal rules.\n - \"Swift, decisive, and globally coordinated fiscal action\" during the pandemic limited scars.\n - Emerging market economies \"have significantly upgraded their policy frameworks and institutions.\"\n- Private sector adaptability:\n - Firms frontloading import orders, reorganizing supply chains.\n - Corporate balance sheets \"are generally strong after years of robust profits.\"\n - \"Artificial intelligence is becoming mainstream.\"\n- Tariff developments:\n - \"The U.S. trade-weighted tariff rate has fallen from 23 percent in April to 17½ percent now—still much higher than before.\"\n - \"The U.S. effective rate is now far above the rest of the world’s, which has held relatively steady this year, with very few cases of retaliation.\"\n - Caution: \"The story is not over—U.S. tariff rates keep moving.\"\n- Supportive financial conditions:\n - \"Global equity prices are surging.\"\n - Tight risk spreads and earlier dollar slide have eased funding for non-U.S. borrowers." }, { "heading": "Risks and warning signs", "content": "- Gold demand and reserves: \"Holdings of monetary gold now exceed one-fifth of the world’s official reserves.\"\n- Tariff spillovers: margin compression could shift to price passthrough, raising inflation and affecting monetary policy and growth; \"a flood of goods previously destined for the U.S. market could trigger a second round of tariff hikes.\"\n- Financial valuation risk: \"Today’s valuations are heading toward levels we saw during the bullishness about the internet 25 years ago.\"\n- If a sharp correction occurs: tighter financial conditions could \"drag down world growth, expose vulnerabilities, and make life especially tough for developing countries.\"\n- Labour and jobs: \"Easy financial conditions—which are masking but not arresting some softening trends, including in job creation.\"" }, { "heading": "IMF’s three medium-term policy goals", "content": "- First: \"to durably lift growth, so the economy can create more jobs, more public revenue, and better public and private debt sustainability;\"\n- Second: \"to repair governments’ finances, so they can buffer new shocks and attend to pressing needs without driving up private sector borrowing rates;\"\n- Third: \"to address excessive imbalances, both domestic and external, so they do not emerge as a spoiler.\"" }, { "heading": "Growth strategies and regional prescriptions", "content": "- Global medium-term growth baseline: \"Global growth is forecast at roughly 3 percent over the medium term—down from 3.7 percent pre-pandemic.\"\n- Drivers of change: \"China decelerating steadily while India develops into a key growth engine.\"\n- Policy priorities to lift private sector productivity: protect property rights, rule of law, good data, effective bankruptcy codes, strong financial sector oversight, independent yet accountable institutions.\n- Call for regulatory reform: \"embrace a regulatory housecleaning to release entrepreneurial energy, supported by strong institutions and governance.\"\n- Asia:\n - \"Deepen internal trade to include more final goods and more services and press forward with reforms to strengthen the service sector and access to finance.\"\n - \"Our analysis suggests a push for more regional integration—notably by lowering nontariff barriers—could raise GDP by 1.8 percent in the long run.\"\n- Sub-Saharan Africa:\n - \"Comprehensive business-friendly reforms, combined with progress in building the Continental Free Trade Area, could lift the real GDP per capita of the median African country by over 10 percent.\"\n- Europe:\n - Urges concrete action: appoint a \"single market czar\" with real authority; remove border frictions in labor, goods and services trade, energy, and finance; \"Build a single European financial system. Build an energy union.\"\n - Comparison: \"seven U.S. mega-firms—none of which existed 51 years ago—boast market capitalization dwarfing that of firms of similar vintage in Europe.\"" }, { "heading": "Fiscal affairs and public debt", "content": "- Global public debt projection: \"Global public debt is projected to exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2029, led by advanced and emerging market economies.\"\n- Risks of rising debt: higher interest payments, upward pressure on borrowing costs, constrained spending, reduced ability to cushion shocks.\n- Official development assistance: \"advanced economies’ development assistance to the world’s neediest countries, which continues its regrettable decline.\"\n- Low-income countries response: \"more self-help—including setting a minimum tax-to-GDP target of 15 percent.\"\n- Fiscal consolidation: \"necessary in countries rich and poor alike\"; consolidation can be delivered if \"planned, communicated, and implemented well,\" aided by higher medium-term growth." }, { "heading": "External imbalances and country-specific guidance", "content": "- Risks: imbalances can \"trigger a protectionist backlash\" and \"fuel financial stability risks.\"\n- U.S. recommendations:\n - Address federal government deficit: \"federal debt-to-GDP ratio is on a path to exceeding its all-time high after World War Two.\"\n - \"We need sustained action that goes beyond discretionary spending.\"\n - Incentivize household saving; consider expanding plans that provide favorable tax treatment for retirement saving, among other tax policy adjustments.\n- China recommendations:\n - Address chronically high private savings, protracted real estate adjustment, and deflationary pressures with \"transitional fiscal expansion and permanent fiscal recomposition.\"\n - Package to boost private consumption, transition growth model, and reflate the economy.\n - Suggested components: \"more spending on social safety nets and property sector clean-up, and much less on industrial policy—where a new IMF paper estimates the costs at a very high 4.4 percent of GDP per year.\"\n- Germany:\n - Recent shift to more expansive fiscal policy \"should help bring down the current account surplus.\"\n - Public infrastructure spending can \"improve incentives for private investment at home\" and inject dynamism into the private sector." }, { "heading": "Closing call and priorities", "content": "- Institutional duty: influence policy to \"maximize economic opportunity for all people,\" with special emphasis on youth aspirations.\n- Policy package: \"free markets with smart regulations, strong institutions, reliable data and robust safety nets—policies with the power to further increase resilience and accelerate growth.\"\n- Inspirational close: quote from the room—“A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality.”\n\nKristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF — October 8, 2025. As prepared for delivery.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- ch2\n - ch2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ch2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://meetings.imf.org/en/2025/Annual\n- https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva\n- Speeches\n- PRESS CENTER\n- lift\n- what must be done\n- paper\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 8, 2025", "Event: Curtain raiser speech for the 2025 Annual Meetings at the Milken Center.", "Speaker: Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF.", "Date and time: October 8, 2025 at 10:00 a.m. ET.", "Tone: Assessment of global economic resilience amid deep transformations in geopolitics, technology, demographics, and climate; call for policies to expand opportunity, especially for youth.", "Short summary: \"Short answer: better than feared, but worse than we need.\"", "Global growth: \"We see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next.\"", "Uncertainty: \"Globally it has shot up and continues to climb. Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal and it is here to stay.\"", "Resilience explained by four reasons:", "Improved policy fundamentals and global coordination:", "Private sector adaptability:", "Tariff developments:", "Supportive financial conditions:", "Gold demand and reserves: \"Holdings of monetary gold now exceed one-fifth of the world’s official reserves.\"", "Tariff spillovers: margin compression could shift to price passthrough, raising inflation and affecting monetary policy and growth; \"a flood of goods previously destined for the U.S. market could trigger a second round of tariff hikes.\"", "Financial valuation risk: \"Today’s valuations are heading toward levels we saw during the bullishness about the internet 25 years ago.\"", "If a sharp correction occurs: tighter financial conditions could \"drag down world growth, expose vulnerabilities, and make life especially tough for developing countries.\"", "Labour and jobs: \"Easy financial conditions—which are masking but not arresting some softening trends, including in job creation.\"", "First: \"to durably lift growth, so the economy can create more jobs, more public revenue, and better public and private debt sustainability;\"", "Second: \"to repair governments’ finances, so they can buffer new shocks and attend to pressing needs without driving up private sector borrowing rates;\"", "Third: \"to address excessive imbalances, both domestic and external, so they do not emerge as a spoiler.\"", "Global medium-term growth baseline: \"Global growth is forecast at roughly 3 percent over the medium term—down from 3.7 percent pre-pandemic.\"", "Drivers of change: \"China decelerating steadily while India develops into a key growth engine.\"", "Policy priorities to lift private sector productivity: protect property rights, rule of law, good data, effective bankruptcy codes, strong financial sector oversight, independent yet accountable institutions.", "Call for regulatory reform: \"embrace a regulatory housecleaning to release entrepreneurial energy, supported by strong institutions and governance.\"", "Asia:", "Sub-Saharan Africa:", "Europe:", "Global public debt projection: \"Global public debt is projected to exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2029, led by advanced and emerging market economies.\"", "Risks of rising debt: higher interest payments, upward pressure on borrowing costs, constrained spending, reduced ability to cushion shocks.", "Official development assistance: \"advanced economies’ development assistance to the world’s neediest countries, which continues its regrettable decline.\"", "Low-income countries response: \"more self-help—including setting a minimum tax-to-GDP target of 15 percent.\"", "Fiscal consolidation: \"necessary in countries rich and poor alike\"; consolidation can be delivered if \"planned, communicated, and implemented well,\" aided by higher medium-term growth.", "Risks: imbalances can \"trigger a protectionist backlash\" and \"fuel financial stability risks.\"", "U.S. recommendations:", "China recommendations:", "Germany:", "Institutional duty: influence policy to \"maximize economic opportunity for all people,\" with special emphasis on youth aspirations.", "Policy package: \"free markets with smart regulations, strong institutions, reliable data and robust safety nets—policies with the power to further increase resilience and accelerate growth.\"", "Inspirational close: quote from the room—“A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality.”", "**ch2**", "[https://meetings.imf.org/en/2025/Annual](https://meetings.imf.org/en/2025/Annual)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva](https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva)", "[Speeches](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[lift](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2023/05/03/Trade-Integration-in-Africa-Unleashing-the-Continent-s-Potential-in-a-Changing-World-529215)", "[what must be done](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/19/sp061925-deepening-the-european-single-market)", "[paper](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2025/08/07/Industrial-Policy-in-China-Quantification-and-Impact-on-Misallocation-568888)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "ch2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:10:53.434Z" }