{ "title": "Press Briefing Transcript: Global Financial Stability Report, Annual Meetings 2025", "publication": "IMF News, October 15, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025/index.md", "summary": "Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to this GFSR press conference. Thank you for coming and for your time and for your interest in this report. I am Meera Louis with the Communications Department at the IMF.", "publishDate": "2025-10-15", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global market conditions and core vulnerabilities", "content": "- Financial conditions are described as \"fairly easy across markets and across countries.\"\n- Market performance year-to-date:\n - Major advanced economies up \"about 10 to 15 percent year-to-date.\"\n - Emerging markets \"about twice as much.\"\n- Asset classes and signals:\n - \"Gold has rallied very strongly in response to high policy uncertainty.\"\n - Markets recovered materially after an April selloff tied to tariff announcements.\n- Three vulnerabilities highlighted in the GFSR:\n - Asset prices are stretched and \"vulnerable to readjustment in valuations.\"\n - Interaction with nonbank financial institutions: an adjustment in asset prices could \"impact nonbanks and could potentially lead to redemptions and further pressures on valuations.\"\n - Rising longer-term bond yields in a number of countries, linked in part to fiscal concerns that \"could then interact with banks and nonbanks.\"\n- Valuation and sensitivity:\n - Global equity valuations estimated at \"about 10 percent over valuation.\"\n - The report notes higher sensitivity of stretched valuations to adverse news; example: sizable two‑day drawdown after April tariff news was \"quite large\" though markets recovered." }, { "heading": "Bond markets, term premia, and sovereign issuance", "content": "- Long-term yields and term premia:\n - Term premia have \"indeed been rising in recent years\" and are \"back to levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis, so about 20 years ago.\"\n - Models show increases in the 10‑ to 30‑year spreads in multiple countries.\n- Supply and future pressure:\n - Link between net supply of bonds and future term premia is emphasized (reference to figure 1.12 in the GFSR).\n - Projected net supply increases—driven by quantitative tightening and larger fiscal financing needs—may place further upward pressure on term premia in coming years.\n- Emerging market financing:\n - Financing conditions in emerging markets are described as \"fairly easy\"; many emerging markets have issued debt and outperformed advanced economy benchmarks by \"a ratio of 2 to 1 on average.\"\n - Relative spreads to benchmarks are \"very tight\" at the ten‑year level for many emerging markets." }, { "heading": "Nonbank financial institutions and macrofinancial linkages", "content": "- Interconnectivity risks:\n - The GFSR flags meaningful exposures: \"about 40 percent of assets are in banks that have exposure to nonbanks that is above 100 percent of their capital level.\"\n- Macroprudential emphasis:\n - Continued use of macroprudential tools and a \"macro‑overlay\" is recommended to address a weak tail of institutions and systemically relevant interconnections.\n - Global stress-testing coverage noted: update of a global stress test covering \"about 800 institutions around the world in about 40 countries.\"" }, { "heading": "Frontier and emerging economies (including Sri Lanka, China, Nigeria, sub‑Saharan Africa)", "content": "- Frontier markets and Sri Lanka:\n - Frontier economies benefit from easier global financial conditions and issuance this year; nevertheless, \"now is not the time to be complacent.\"\n - Policy priorities: improve economic fundamentals (current account, fiscal buffers), strengthen institutions, \"improve the predictability of issuance,\" and further develop domestic debt markets to channel domestic savings.\n- China:\n - China growth described as \"around 5 percent\" this year; domestic consumption is weaker than the headline growth figure.\n- Nigeria and sub‑Saharan Africa:\n - Nigeria: inflation reduced from \"more than 30 percent last year to 23 percent this year\" and revenue collection and FX transparency have strengthened.\n - Policy advice includes moving toward \"more flexible exchange rates,\" continued revenue mobilization, debt management, and structural reforms.\n - Caution that capital flow surges and retrenchments remain a risk for the region." }, { "heading": "Country‑specific market concerns", "content": "- Japan:\n - Recent political developments have coincided with \"some weakness in the yen, higher yields.\"\n - Yields have risen post‑pandemic consistent with higher inflation and policy adjustments; the 10‑ to 30‑year spread has increased, mirroring trends in other advanced economies.\n- United Kingdom:\n - Markets show higher volatility and higher yields relative to peers, attributed to \"low productivity, sticky inflation\" and uncertainty about fiscal plans.\n - IMF recommendations: \"credibility on the fiscal consolidation plan and reforms to increase productivity.\"\n- France and European Monetary Union:\n - Spread widening has been \"fairly contained\"; current repricing is viewed as linked to policy uncertainty rather than broad cross‑border spillovers like prior sovereign crises." }, { "heading": "Foreign exchange, reserves, gold, and safe assets", "content": "- Dollar and FX dynamics:\n - The dollar experienced appreciation followed by partial reversal; recent weaker dollar is \"easing financial conditions in emerging markets.\"\n - Fluctuations described as \"fairly range bound\" over longer horizons.\n- Gold and reserves:\n - Remarks note gold price commentary including \"more than $4,000 per ounce.\"\n - Official reserve allocations to gold have increased steadily over several years; reserve portfolios should be \"well‑diversified.\"\n - US dollar bonds remain a core safe asset benchmark due to \"the depth and breadth of capital markets of US dollar assets.\"\n- FX market importance:\n - The GFSR contains a chapter on FX market structure and interactions; \"FX matters a great deal\" for cross‑market dynamics." }, { "heading": "Crypto, stablecoins, and regulatory stance", "content": "- Stablecoins overview:\n - Global stablecoin outstanding stock cited as \"about 400 billion,\" with the \"vast majority\" denominated in US dollars.\n- Regulatory developments:\n - Legal and regulatory pathways are forming: US law (the Genius Act) provides a legal basis; the European Union and Japan have enacted or advanced regulations.\n - IMF stance: welcomes steps toward regulation and references a policy framework for crypto‑assets published in February 2023.\n- Policy priority: convergence toward robust regulation consistent with IMF recommendations while recognizing jurisdictional differences in implementation." }, { "heading": "Regulatory framework, banking resilience, and policy recommendations", "content": "- Banking regulation:\n - Ongoing work to finalize Basel III; some US rules had been \"gold‑plated\" relative to minimum standards and are under debate.\n - The core banking system is considered \"rather resilient\" in part due to post‑crisis reforms.\n - Principle: review any undue complexity to improve efficiency \"without undermining the overall resilience of the banking sector or the international minimum standards.\"\n- Macroprudential and fiscal recommendations:\n - Strengthen fiscal frameworks and rebuild buffers to mitigate interactions between fiscal risk and financial markets.\n - Promote development of domestic bond markets, derivatives and swap markets, and predictable issuance to channel domestic savings.\n - Maintain central bank operational independence coupled with accountability (noted in reference to the Federal Reserve Act and mandates of price stability and full employment).\n - Diversify official reserve portfolios and move toward more flexible exchange rates where appropriate.\n - Address weak tails in banking systems and monitor bank exposure to nonbank sectors.\n\nPress Briefing Transcript: Global Financial Stability Report, Annual Meetings 2025 — IMF Communications Department, October 14, 2025\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 15, 2025", "Financial conditions are described as \"fairly easy across markets and across countries.\"", "Market performance year-to-date:", "Asset classes and signals:", "Three vulnerabilities highlighted in the GFSR:", "Valuation and sensitivity:", "Long-term yields and term premia:", "Supply and future pressure:", "Emerging market financing:", "Interconnectivity risks:", "Macroprudential emphasis:", "Frontier markets and Sri Lanka:", "China:", "Nigeria and sub‑Saharan Africa:", "Japan:", "United Kingdom:", "France and European Monetary Union:", "Dollar and FX dynamics:", "Gold and reserves:", "FX market importance:", "Stablecoins overview:", "Regulatory developments:", "Policy priority: convergence toward robust regulation consistent with IMF recommendations while recognizing jurisdictional differences in implementation.", "Banking regulation:", "Macroprudential and fiscal recommendations:", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/15/tr-101425-press-briefing-transcript-global-financial-stability-report-annual-meetings-2025/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:11:57.028Z" }