{
  "title": "Press Briefing Transcript: Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere, Annual Meetings 2025",
  "publication": "IMF News, October 18, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/18/tr-10172025-press-briefing-whdreo-transcript",
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  "summary": "Welcome to the press briefing for the Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere. And just to note, the report was just published moments ago on IMF.org.",
  "publishDate": "2025-10-18",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Regional growth and outlook",
      "content": "- Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean:\n  - Projected to remain steady at 2.4 percent in this year 2025.\n  - Projected to moderate very slightly next year (2026) with risks tilted to the downside.\n- Global conditions supportive for the region:\n  - Commodity prices have stabilized after early-year volatility.\n  - Financial conditions have eased amid declining sovereign spreads.\n  - A weak U.S. dollar in comparison to last year.\n  - Regional exports have kept pace with global trends of readily firm trade.\n- Domestic conditions:\n  - Labor markets remain robust and generally support private consumption.\n  - Low exposure of many economies to the U.S. and lower tariffs for the region relative to other regions provide buffers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy, debt, and consolidation",
      "content": "- Current fiscal dynamics:\n  - Structural primary balances remain lower than anticipated, indicating delays in fiscal consolidation.\n  - Public debt ratios are rising in the region.\n  - Insufficient fiscal effort complicates debt sustainability and the effectiveness of monetary policy.\n- Fiscal policy observations and recommendations:\n  - Reinforce fiscal frameworks and rebuild fiscal buffers to mitigate risk-premium compression.\n  - Advance fiscal consolidation to safeguard price stability and increase monetary policy effectiveness.\n  - Reallocate spending from less productive current expenditures toward growth-enhancing investments (education, health, infrastructure).\n  - Mobilize additional revenues where taxes-to-GDP ratios are relatively low compared with other regions.\n  - Address rigidities that limit fiscal maneuverability; some countries exhibit up to 90 percent of the budget being rigid."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy and inflation",
      "content": "- Inflation and monetary policy stance:\n  - Inflation remains above target in some countries; inflation expectations are stable but in some cases a bit above targets.\n  - Robust labor markets and fiscal concerns are slowing disinflation.\n  - Recent exchange rate appreciation has helped disinflation in some cases.\n  - Central banks in the region have responded appropriately and remain data-driven.\n  - Continued caution is warranted where economic slack is not evident and inflation remains above target.\n- Interaction of fiscal and monetary policy:\n  - Reforms enhancing central bank independence have supported price stability.\n  - High public debt and deficits can constrain monetary policy; lowering debt levels makes monetary policy more effective."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural constraints and productivity",
      "content": "- Long-term potential growth:\n  - The region’s potential growth remains stuck at historically low levels and lags emerging market peers.\n  - Contributing factors: slowing labor force expansion, low capital accumulation, and stagnant productivity.\n- Analytical findings on productivity:\n  - Firm-level evidence shows persistent resource misallocation and sluggish productivity growth among firms.\n  - More productive firms face barriers to expand due to safety-based regulations, taxes, financial constraints, and limited competition.\n- Policy priorities to lift potential growth:\n  - Reform to reduce resource misallocation and barriers to firm expansion.\n  - Simplify and streamline permitting and regulatory processes to facilitate investment.\n  - Increase labor force participation, including of women.\n  - Improve rule of law and governance; address internal security constraints that deter investment."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Program engagement and country-specific notes",
      "content": "- General engagement:\n  - The IMF remains closely engaged with the region through policy advice, capacity development, and financial support.\n- Recent program developments:\n  - Barbados: completed its arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility.\n  - Costa Rica: a new Flexible Credit Line (FCL) has been launched.\n  - Colombia: cancelled its FCL.\n- Brazil:\n  - IMF has revised up growth for Brazil in recent years; surprises to the upside.\n  - Primary balance forecasts have changed little since the last round due to data cutoff timing.\n  - IMF expects the government can find ways to adjust spending and revenues to meet fiscal plans despite a recent overturning in Congress of a tax-raising measure.\n  - Central Bank’s inflation-targeting regime remains mature; monetary policy response to recent inflation increases has been effective.\n- Honduras:\n  - Staff-Level Agreement of the Fourth Review reached recently.\n  - Remittances are critically important: one question framed remittances as 25 percent of gross domestic product for Honduras.\n  - The economy has been performing very well with growth firm; coffee prices and remittances have helped this year.\n  - Program has strengthened buffers and resilience through fiscal and monetary commitments.\n- Mexico:\n  - Scope exists for Mexico to increase its share in U.S. markets (nearshoring); exports have held up well and are more diversified (electronics, high-value goods, autos).\n  - Outcomes depend on how USMCA renegotiation and U.S. trade measures evolve.\n  - Judicial reform effects on investment are still uncertain; investors currently focus more on trade regime.\n- Canada:\n  - IMF view: tariffs affect growth, but Canada can lift internal barriers to internal trade and has fiscal space for investment.\n  - Recommendation: pursue comprehensive (centralized) removal of internal trade impediments rather than bilateral fixes.\n- Argentina:\n  - IMF welcomes U.S. Treasury support (swap) as complementary to the Fund-supported program; coordination between IMF, Argentina, and U.S. Treasury has been deep.\n  - Fund seeks consistent macroeconomic policies that reduce inflation, accumulate reserves, and create a foundation for sustained growth.\n  - Reserve accumulation is an objective tied to policy consistency and market stability.\n- Chile:\n  - IMF finds Chile’s debt to be sustainable with strong fiscal institutions; Chile qualifies for the FCL.\n  - IMF supports medium-term fiscal consolidation aimed at getting close to balance by 2029.\n  - Recommend reforms to improve permitting processes to boost investment and productivity.\n- Ecuador:\n  - Staff-Level Agreement reached; program performance remains very strong and August quantitative targets were met.\n  - IMF staff stand ready to go to the Board to unlock disbursements of about $600 million.\n  - Authorities’ homegrown program is delivering fiscal progress while increasing support for vulnerable groups.\n  - Forecasts: IMF noted 3.2 percent growth focus for Ecuador this week; social unrest and other developments will be monitored for downside risk to forecasts.\n- Bolivia:\n  - IMF has discussed challenges and policy views with presidential candidates ahead of the election.\n  - Fund is ready to support Bolivia with technical advice or financing and can move quickly if requested."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and priorities",
      "content": "- Short- to medium-term:\n  - Reinforce fiscal frameworks and rebuild fiscal buffers to reduce sovereign risk premiums.\n  - Sequence fiscal consolidation to support price stability while protecting growth-enhancing spending.\n  - Accumulate reserves where appropriate to stabilize markets and complement program support.\n  - Central banks should remain data-driven and cautious where inflation remains above target.\n- Structural and medium-term:\n  - Implement reforms to raise productivity: reduce resource misallocation, lower administrative and permitting barriers, enhance competition, improve access to finance, and reform tax and regulatory frameworks that impede firm growth.\n  - Address internal security challenges to encourage investment.\n  - Mobilize revenues where tax-to-GDP ratios are low and reallocate spending from current to investment priorities (education, health, infrastructure).\n  - Strengthen governance and rule of law to support private investment and sustained growth.\n\nPress Briefing Transcript: Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere, October 17, 2025. IMF Communications Department; speakers: Rodrigo Valdés (Director, Western Hemisphere Department) and Nigel Chalk (Deputy Director, Western Hemisphere Department).\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/18/tr-10172025-press-briefing-whdreo-transcript"
    }
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    "Published: October 18, 2025",
    "Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean:",
    "Global conditions supportive for the region:",
    "Domestic conditions:",
    "Current fiscal dynamics:",
    "Fiscal policy observations and recommendations:",
    "Inflation and monetary policy stance:",
    "Interaction of fiscal and monetary policy:",
    "Long-term potential growth:",
    "Analytical findings on productivity:",
    "Policy priorities to lift potential growth:",
    "General engagement:",
    "Recent program developments:",
    "Brazil:",
    "Honduras:",
    "Mexico:",
    "Canada:",
    "Argentina:",
    "Chile:",
    "Ecuador:",
    "Bolivia:",
    "Short- to medium-term:",
    "Structural and medium-term:",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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