{
  "title": "Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department",
  "publication": "IMF News, October 20, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/20/tr-10-17-25-mcd-press-briefing-transcript",
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  "summary": "Good morning and good afternoon to everyone joining us here and online. I'm Angham AL SHAMI from the Communications Department here at the IMF and I will be your moderator for today.",
  "publishDate": "2025-10-20",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Regional outlook and projections",
      "content": "- MENA (Middle East and North Africa), Pakistan, and Caucasus and Central Asia showed resilience in 2025 despite trade tensions and regional conflict.\n- MENA and Pakistan:\n  - Projected growth of 3.2 percent in 2025, up from 2.1 percent in 2024 and higher than the April forecast.\n  - Growth expected to rise to 3.7 percent in 2026.\n  - Inflation expected to remain moderate, helped by lower food and energy prices and tight monetary policies.\n  - Upgrade of the 2025 outlook by 0.6 percent compared to April projections (regional aggregate context).\n- Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA):\n  - Average growth of 5.6 percent in 2025.\n  - Growth expected to ease gradually to about 4 percent over the medium term as hydrocarbon production stabilizes and fiscal consolidations take hold.\n  - Inflation is mixed: easing in most MENA economies and Pakistan, but accelerating and still elevated in many CCA countries due to robust demand and price pressures."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of 2025 performance",
      "content": "- Global factors:\n  - Output growth held steady; inflation moderate or eased in most regions.\n  - Temporary global supports: front loading ahead of tariff increases, inventory and supply-chain adjustments, and significant investment in new AI technologies.\n  - As temporary factors fade, global demand may soften, affecting regions via trade, finance, and commodity channels.\n- Regional drivers:\n  - Oil exporters: benefited from higher oil output after faster unwinding of OPEC+ cuts.\n  - Oil importers and Pakistan: benefited from low energy prices, strong remittances, and a vibrant tourism sector supporting domestic demand.\n  - Caucasus and Central Asia: growth driven by strong consumption, credit expansion, and steady hydrocarbon exports."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key risks and scenarios",
      "content": "- Downside risks:\n  - Significant recent shocks and elevated global uncertainty could undermine demand, induce global slowdown, or tighten global financial conditions.\n  - Persistent inflation and fiscal sustainability concerns in advanced economies could raise borrowing costs, affecting countries with large financing needs.\n  - Continued exposure to geopolitical tensions and climate-related shocks could disrupt activity.\n- Upside scenario:\n  - Faster progress toward peace and reforms could yield stronger and more inclusive growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations",
      "content": "- Fiscal policy:\n  - Rebuild fiscal and external buffers, especially where reserves and fiscal space are limited.\n  - Enhance fiscal frameworks to ensure long-term sustainability; adopt medium-term fiscal frameworks to anchor debt.\n- Monetary policy:\n  - Reinforce monetary policy credibility to anchor inflation expectations.\n- Structural reforms:\n  - Accelerate reforms to diversify economies, empower the private sector, and attract investment that creates jobs.\n  - In conflict-affected countries, prioritize rapid macroeconomic stabilization, rebuilding institutions, and securing external support for recovery.\n  - Advance reforms that promote good governance, regional integration, and equal opportunity, especially for youth and women.\n- Debt and liability management:\n  - Strengthen institutions and debt-management practices; use international market access as asset-liability management when conditions are favorable.\n  - Remain vigilant to indirect trade impacts from protectionism and shifting trade routes; use opportunities from AI and other investments to accelerate diversification."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Country-specific highlights and issues",
      "content": "- GCC and tariffs:\n  - Recent tariff measures had limited direct impact on the region due to limited trade volumes with the U.S. and tariff rates between 10 to 15 percent; oil and gas exports largely excluded.\n  - Indirect trade-route effects warrant vigilance and active diversification.\n  - Market access improved in 2025; regional sovereign issuance has exceeded last year’s level. Example cited: Kuwait issued at 11.5 percent.\n- Egypt:\n  - Tangible improvements since program implementation: inflation declined; expected to reach 11.8 percent next year (explicit IMF expectation).\n  - Growth: 4.3 percent for financial year 2024-2025; 4.5 percent for 2025-2026.\n  - Debt levels improving gradually.\n  - Program pillars: support growth and job creation by empowering the private sector, improve business environment, clarify state role, transform public institutions, and target public expenditure to protect the most vulnerable.\n  - IMF position: extension of program duration not deemed necessary; focus on accelerating private-sector role and protecting social systems.\n- Gaza and Palestine-related reconstruction:\n  - IMF supports international coordination and contributes within mandate (policy advice, technical assistance, part of Ad Hoc Liaison Committee).\n  - Reconstruction sequence: assess damage and emergency needs (World Bank and UN agencies leading damage and needs assessments); IMF awaits those assessments for further inputs.\n  - IMF participation in donor conferences contingent on invitations and coordination with other institutions.\n- Lebanon:\n  - Lebanon requested a program in March (year of transcript) and negotiations resumed based on the interim 2022 agreement.\n  - Core negotiation topics: sequencing of obligations; protection of deposits and most vulnerable; hierarchy of claims; fiscal reform for debt sustainability; financial sector sustainability; structural reforms and social safety nets.\n  - Restoring trust requires addressing debt sustainability, financial sector stability, and anti-money laundering/combating illicit finance to reactivate banking and reduce cash-economy reliance.\n  - IMF emphasizes medium-term fiscal frameworks, revenue broadening, and protecting low-income households from regressive inflation impacts.\n- CCA and Central Asia specifics:\n  - Strong resilience in 2025 with average growth of 5.6 percent; upward revision of 0.7 percent from spring projections.\n  - Inflation acceleration in many CCA countries due to demand pressures and pass-through from Russia; electricity tariff reforms contributed to inflation in some cases.\n  - Infrastructure projects (rail, electricity) improve connectivity and trade but require careful liability management to ensure debt sustainability.\n  - Kyrgyzstan: IMF encourages vigilance on rising domestic debt associated with public projects; long-term projects should strengthen assets while liabilities remain sustainable.\n- Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan:\n  - Tunisia: IMF continues to stand by Tunisia; Article IV consultations are member commitments but Tunisia did not set a timetable for recent Article IVs; prior interim program request was not endorsed.\n  - Morocco: Growth raised to 4.5 percent in 2025 with lower inflation; continued need for transformation, job creation, and strengthened safety nets.\n  - Jordan: Withstood shocks, maintained stability, and registered slight growth improvements following recent revisions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "IMF support, financing, and capacity development",
      "content": "- Financial assistance:\n  - Since early 2020, the IMF has approved nearly $56 billion in financing for countries across MENOP (MENA and Pakistan) and CCA.\n- Capacity development:\n  - Delivered more than 385 capacity-development projects across 31 countries totaling $36.8 million in fiscal year 2024 and 2025.\n- Instruments and roles:\n  - Policy advice, financing, and capacity development; technical assistance and participation in international coordination frameworks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Communication and engagement",
      "content": "- Upcoming Regional Economic Outlook launches:\n  - Dubai on October 21.\n  - Almaty, Kazakhstan on October 30.\n  - Both events open to in-person or online participation.\n\nSource: Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department (October 20, 2025), IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Transcripts\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/20/tr-10-17-25-mcd-press-briefing-transcript"
    }
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    "Published: October 20, 2025",
    "MENA (Middle East and North Africa), Pakistan, and Caucasus and Central Asia showed resilience in 2025 despite trade tensions and regional conflict.",
    "MENA and Pakistan:",
    "Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA):",
    "Global factors:",
    "Regional drivers:",
    "Downside risks:",
    "Upside scenario:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "Structural reforms:",
    "Debt and liability management:",
    "GCC and tariffs:",
    "Egypt:",
    "Gaza and Palestine-related reconstruction:",
    "Lebanon:",
    "CCA and Central Asia specifics:",
    "Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan:",
    "Financial assistance:",
    "Capacity development:",
    "Instruments and roles:",
    "Upcoming Regional Economic Outlook launches:",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Transcripts](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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