{ "title": "Press Briefing Transcript: Asia and Pacific Department Regional Economic Outlook", "publication": "IMF News, October 28, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo/index.md", "summary": "Good morning, everyone. Welcome to this IMF press conference on the Asia and Pacific Region’s Economic Outlook", "publishDate": "2025-10-28", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview & headline projections", "content": "- IMF press briefing held October 28, 2025, launching the October 2025 Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific.\n- Regional growth projections:\n - 4.5 percent in 2025 (broadly unchanged from last year).\n - 4.1 percent in 2026 (moderation).\n- The region is projected to contribute about 60 percent of global growth this year and the next.\n- Inflation: “quite different across the region”; the briefing did not discuss inflation in detail." }, { "heading": "Main drivers of resilience identified", "content": "- Three key factors explaining resilience:\n - Strong exports, including front-loading of shipments ahead of tariffs.\n - Timely and accommodative macroeconomic policies (monetary and fiscal adjustments varied by country).\n - Eased financial conditions: booming equity markets, lower long-term borrowing costs, and a weaker dollar.\n- Surge in intra-regional trade, partly led by AI-driven technology demand and strong growth momentum within Asia." }, { "heading": "Country-specific performance and projections", "content": "- China:\n - Remained resilient in the first half of the year, driven by fiscal intervention and strong exports.\n - Export growth: 4.8 percent this year, forecasted to moderate to 4.2 percent next year.\n - Inflation: expected to pick up to 2.7 percent next year.\n - Growth expected to moderate in the second half; uncertainty remains high.\n- Japan:\n - Growth revised to 1.1 percent this year.\n - Growth projected to move lower to 0.6 percent next year (close to potential).\n - Inflation projected to converge to the BOJ’s 2 percent target by 2027.\n- India:\n - Projected growth of 6.6 percent this year (broadly unchanged).\n - Projected growth of 6.2 percent next year (slight slowing, partly owing to higher tariffs).\n - Inflation expected to moderate to 2.8 percent before moving back toward the RBI’s 4 percent target next year.\n - GST reform this year expected to offset some adverse impacts of higher tariffs.\n- Korea:\n - Growth uptick from 0.9 percent this year to 1.8 percent next year.\n- ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations):\n - Projected to grow at 4.3 percent this year and next year, supported by export strength and some policy support." }, { "heading": "Structural constraints and longer-term concerns", "content": "- Asia’s growth remains slower than pre-pandemic averages.\n- Identified structural headwinds:\n - Aging populations.\n - Weaker productivity.\n - Economic scars from the pandemic.\n - Rising youth unemployment and lack of job opportunities.\n- These factors weigh on sentiment and medium-term prospects." }, { "heading": "Risks and scenarios", "content": "- Trade-policy risks:\n - Tariff “dust” has not settled; risk of renewed escalation and geoeconomic fragmentation remains.\n - Tariff implementation uncertainty has led to front-loading of trade and tariff exemptions, muting near-term impact but leaving downside risk.\n- Financial risks:\n - Risk premiums and interest rates could rise again if trade-policy uncertainty or political tensions intensify.\n- China-related risks:\n - Downside risk from China remains important (property-market weakness, weak domestic demand) but IMF does not single out which single risk (China slowdown vs. U.S. trade barriers) is larger." }, { "heading": "Policy recommendations (macro and structural)", "content": "- Short-term macro policy:\n - Where inflation is at or below target, consider using monetary policy to lower interest rates and temporary, well-targeted fiscal measures to support vulnerable people and firms affected by tariffs.\n- Medium-term fiscal policy:\n - Upgrade fiscal frameworks to manage future shocks and long-term spending pressures from aging populations.\n - Maintain fiscal prudence where high public debt and rising interest payments limit space (explicitly noted for Japan).\n- Structural and inclusive-growth policies:\n - Rebalance toward domestic demand, especially consumption, via stronger social safety nets and reduced household uncertainty.\n - Repair and restructure balance sheets where needed.\n - Streamline regulations to enable private sector growth; promote market-based finance (deeper bond and equity markets) and stronger insolvency and debt workout frameworks to boost capital efficiency.\n- Exchange-rate policy:\n - Greater exchange-rate flexibility seen as a shock absorber; recommended where appropriate to help stabilize economies facing trade shocks (commentary applied to India and China discussions)." }, { "heading": "Analytical chapters highlighted in the REO", "content": "- Chapter on regional trade integration:\n - Deeper regional integration could yield sizable gains.\n - Policy options include cutting non-tariff barriers, broadening and modernizing trade agreements to cover services and digital trade, and easing restrictions on direct investment in infrastructure.\n- Chapter on capital efficiency:\n - Need to boost capital efficiencies so that each currency unit invested delivers stronger returns.\n - Recommendations: deeper bond and equity markets, broader market-based finance, and stronger insolvency and debt workout frameworks." }, { "heading": "Q&A highlights and notable technical points", "content": "- Tariff impacts to date:\n - Near-term effects muted by announcement delays, pauses, exemptions, and front-loading; negative effects can materialize over time.\n - Effective tariff rates and actual tariffs collected can differ, lowering immediate burden.\n- AI and financial markets:\n - Equity booms linked to AI may be front-loaded; near-term downside risks exist if earnings disappoint.\n - Medium-term: AI holds potential for economy-wide productivity gains, especially in healthcare and aging-related services; net effect is two-sided (near-term risk, medium-term gains).\n- Japan fiscal advice:\n - Fiscal support should be targeted and temporary; broad subsidies and tax cuts should be avoided given high debt and rising interest payments.\n - Maintain consolidation path despite recent deficit reductions.\n- India exchange-rate regime and rupee:\n - IMF noted more two-way flexibility and less intervention under Governor Sanjay Malhotra; formal de facto regime assessments occur in scheduled windows (next Article IV reassessment noted).\n - India viewed as well-placed to absorb volatility due to limited balance-sheet mismatches, low pass-through to inflation, and deep FX markets.\n- Sri Lanka:\n - Growth outlook revised to 3.1 percent (return toward trend after strong rebound).\n - Staff-Level agreement reached during the Fifth Review mission in early October; cost-recovery in electricity pricing is a program principle.\n- Bangladesh:\n - Fifth Review mission is in the field; reserve accumulation by the central bank to reduce balance-of-payments vulnerabilities is welcomed.\n- Hong Kong:\n - To sustain capital inflows, maintain strengths as an international financial center: strong regulations, human capital, and digital/logistical infrastructure; adapt regulation to new markets and instruments.\n\nPress Briefing Transcript: Asia and Pacific Department Regional Economic Outlook, October 28, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 28, 2025", "IMF press briefing held October 28, 2025, launching the October 2025 Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific.", "Regional growth projections:", "The region is projected to contribute about 60 percent of global growth this year and the next.", "Inflation: “quite different across the region”; the briefing did not discuss inflation in detail.", "Three key factors explaining resilience:", "Surge in intra-regional trade, partly led by AI-driven technology demand and strong growth momentum within Asia.", "China:", "Japan:", "India:", "Korea:", "ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations):", "Asia’s growth remains slower than pre-pandemic averages.", "Identified structural headwinds:", "These factors weigh on sentiment and medium-term prospects.", "Trade-policy risks:", "Financial risks:", "China-related risks:", "Short-term macro policy:", "Medium-term fiscal policy:", "Structural and inclusive-growth policies:", "Exchange-rate policy:", "Chapter on regional trade integration:", "Chapter on capital efficiency:", "Tariff impacts to date:", "AI and financial markets:", "Japan fiscal advice:", "India exchange-rate regime and rupee:", "Sri Lanka:", "Bangladesh:", "Hong Kong:", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/10/28/tr-102825-press-briefing-transcript-apd-reo/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:13:18.606Z" }