{
  "title": "IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to Thailand",
  "publication": "IMF News, November 14, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/13/pr25367-thailand-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission",
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  "summary": "Recent economic indicators for the first half of 2025 surprised on the upside as Thailand’s economy expanded by 3 percent. However, growth is projected to slow to 2.1 and 1.6 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively, amid increasing economic headwinds.",
  "publishDate": "2025-11-14",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Recent performance and near-term outlook",
      "content": "- Recent economic indicators for the first half of 2025 surprised on the upside as Thailand’s economy expanded by 3 percent.\n- Growth projections:\n  - 2025: 2.1 percent\n  - 2026: 1.6 percent\n- Inflation outlook:\n  - Authorities’ target range: (1 to 3 percent)\n  - Average headline inflation projected at -0.1 percent in 2025 and 0.4 percent in 2026.\n  - Inflation is low and is expected to remain subdued, returning to the authorities’ target range (1 to 3 percent) only by 2027.\n- Key drivers noted:\n  - Exports recorded strong growth in H1 2025, reflecting accelerated shipments ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff hikes.\n  - Private consumption growth continued to slow.\n  - Private investment rebounded in Q2 after four consecutive quarters of contraction.\n  - Public consumption and investment recorded considerable growth, mainly due to budget under-execution in FY2024 following a delay in budget approval."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and uncertainty",
      "content": "- The outlook is uncertain with risks tilted to the downside.\n- Specific downside risks highlighted:\n  - Prolonged trade policy uncertainty could further weigh on growth and the inflation outlook.\n  - A prolonged decline in inflation could lower inflation expectations and lead to a broad-based and sustained decline in the price level.\n  - Heightened global financial market volatility could exacerbate domestic financial vulnerabilities.\n  - Escalating geopolitical tensions or protracted political uncertainty could further undermine confidence and growth.\n- Upside scenarios:\n  - A swift resolution of global trade tensions.\n  - Stronger-than-expected growth in trading partners.\n  - Prompt easing of domestic political uncertainty."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy assessment and recommendations",
      "content": "- Given elevated public debt, fiscal support should remain targeted and parsimonious, underpinned by a credible medium-term consolidation strategy.\n- Short-term fiscal guidance:\n  - A moderate fiscal expansion envisaged in the current budget based on carryovers from the previous fiscal year could provide crucial near-term support.\n  - Available fiscal resources should be directed towards growth-enhancing activities, remain well-targeted, and be efficiently implemented to maximize impact.\n  - The mission welcomes the decision to redirect the planned Digital Wallet universal cash transfers toward investment projects, and top up social assistance for the State Welfare Card holders.\n- Medium-term fiscal guidance:\n  - Absent severe downside shocks, the authorities should avoid further delaying fiscal adjustment or raising the debt ceiling.\n  - Proceed with growth-friendly, revenue-driven consolidation to contain debt accumulation and create fiscal space for rising spending needs to invest in human and physical capital and strengthen social protection."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy and financial sector measures",
      "content": "- Monetary policy:\n  - The policy rate currently stands at 1.5 percent following four reductions totaling 100 basis points since October 2024.\n  - The shift to monetary easing remains appropriate, and there is scope to loosen further to mitigate downside risks to demand and inflation.\n  - Economic conditions suggest room for further monetary easing, supporting the recovery in domestic demand, while preserving adequate policy space against potential future shocks.\n  - Close coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is essential, while safeguarding central bank independence and maintaining exchange rate flexibility as a key shock absorber.\n- Financial sector and household debt:\n  - Given elevated household debt, measures to restore the impaired credit channel—including building on recent steps taken by the authorities—should continue to ensure effective monetary policy transmission.\n  - The authorities’ plans for continued orderly household debt deleveraging and support of SMEs are steps in the right direction.\n  - Priorities include restructuring low-value unsecured personal loans and enabling households to re-enter the formal credit system after successfully repaying a reduced amount or installments, with strong governance of the program.\n  - Expanding financial services to SMEs and other underserved groups will help strengthen financial intermediation and support economic growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reform priorities",
      "content": "- Urgent structural reforms are needed to strengthen resilience and improve growth potential.\n- Key reform priorities:\n  - Deepening trade and financial integration.\n  - Reinvigorating structural transformation to boost labor productivity.\n  - Advancing export sophistication.\n  - Enhancing social protection, governance, and climate resilience.\n- Expected outcomes:\n  - These policies would support stronger and more inclusive growth and facilitate external rebalancing."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Mission details and next steps",
      "content": "- Mission head and dates:\n  - An IMF staff team, led by Mr. Peter Breuer, held the 2025 Article IV Consultation with Thailand between October 30 and November 13, 2025.\n- Additional context:\n  - U.S. tariffs, although reduced from the initially announced 36 to 19 percent, present a significant shock for the economy.\n  - Foreign tourist arrivals have declined.\n  - An unexpected change in government heightened uncertainty.\n- Process note:\n  - End-of-Mission press releases convey preliminary findings after a visit and reflect the views of IMF staff; staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.\n  - The IMF’s Executive Board is tentatively scheduled to discuss the Staff Report in February 2026.\n\nSource: IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to Thailand — November 13, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Thailand and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/13/pr25367-thailand-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission"
    }
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    "Published: November 14, 2025",
    "Recent economic indicators for the first half of 2025 surprised on the upside as Thailand’s economy expanded by 3 percent.",
    "Growth projections:",
    "Inflation outlook:",
    "Key drivers noted:",
    "The outlook is uncertain with risks tilted to the downside.",
    "Specific downside risks highlighted:",
    "Upside scenarios:",
    "Given elevated public debt, fiscal support should remain targeted and parsimonious, underpinned by a credible medium-term consolidation strategy.",
    "Short-term fiscal guidance:",
    "Medium-term fiscal guidance:",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "Financial sector and household debt:",
    "Urgent structural reforms are needed to strengthen resilience and improve growth potential.",
    "Key reform priorities:",
    "Expected outcomes:",
    "Mission head and dates:",
    "Additional context:",
    "Process note:",
    "[Thailand and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/THA/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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