## IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to Indonesia

_IMF News, November 14, 2025_

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**Canonical URL:** [IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to Indonesia](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/14/pr-25375-indonesia-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: November 14, 2025

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### Mission overview
- An IMF team led by Ms. Maria Gonzalez conducted the 2025 Article IV Consultation discussions over November 3-12, 2025.
- End-of-mission statement issued November 14, 2025, conveying preliminary staff findings; views are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the IMF’s Executive Board.
- The team met with officials in the government, Bank Indonesia, Financial Services Authority (OJK), other public agencies, and representatives of the private sector and civil society.

### Growth, inflation, and external sector
- Growth projections:
  - Growth is expected to remain steady at 5.0 percent in 2025 and 5.1 percent in 2026.
- Inflation:
  - Headline inflation is well anchored and projected to converge towards the midpoint of the target range.
- Current account and reserves:
  - The current account deficit would remain well contained in 2025-26, with comfortable reserves.
- External position:
  - A preliminary assessment of Indonesia’s external position in 2025 finds it is broadly in line with the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.

### Risks and upside scenarios
- Downside risks:
  - Escalating trade tensions, prolonged uncertainty, and global financial market volatility.
  - Domestic risk from large policy shifts without sufficiently robust guardrails that could build up vulnerabilities.
- Upside risks:
  - Bolder structural reforms, including faster-than-anticipated push on the trade front.
  - Positive spillovers from stronger growth among trading partners.

### Fiscal policy assessment and recommendations
- Fiscal projections:
  - Staff expect the fiscal deficit to widen to around 2.8 percent of GDP in 2025, and around 2.9 percent next year.
  - These staff projections are based on more conservative growth and revenue projections than those envisaged in the 2026 budget of 2.7 percent of GDP.
- Policy recommendations:
  - Carefully manage budget execution to secure authorities’ budget target to provide needed fiscal support while preserving fiscal space.
  - Continue careful fiscal management and maintain strong safeguards and rigorous oversight of quasi-fiscal operations to keep fiscal risks well-contained.
  - Strengthen revenue mobilization with a focus on high-quality spending and spending efficiency to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness in support of growth.

### Monetary policy, liquidity, and exchange rate guidance
- Monetary easing:
  - The shift to monetary policy easing, with the realignment of BI’s various instruments in a supportive direction, is appropriate.
  - The 150 bps rate cuts and liquidity-enhancing measures should gradually strengthen credit growth.
- Forward guidance:
  - There may be room for some further policy rate cuts; the extent and pace should be data-dependent, consider lagged effects of BI’s actions already taken, account for the supportive fiscal impulse, and preserve space against external shocks.
- Exchange rate and FX intervention:
  - Continuing exchange rate flexibility will help absorb shocks.
  - Under the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework, foreign exchange intervention could be part of the policy response given Indonesia’s relatively shallow foreign exchange markets, in case of risk-off shocks that trigger excessive tightening of financial conditions.
  - Such interventions would need to balance the need to preserve buffers in a shock-prone world.

### Financial sector and macroprudential stance
- System resilience:
  - The financial system is broadly resilient.
- Macroprudential stance:
  - Amid a negative credit gap, a near-term accommodative macroprudential stance is appropriate.
  - Gradually starting a shift towards a neutral stance as credit growth builds pace would safeguard against potential macro-financial risks.
- Government mobilization of finance:
  - As the government seeks to mobilize the financial sector for its growth agenda, ensuring appropriate guardrails will help maintain the sector’s resilience.

### Structural reforms and long-term growth
- Indonesia’s objective:
  - Indonesia remains firm in its “Golden Vision” of becoming a high-income country by 2045.
- Policy mix and state-led initiatives:
  - Authorities have targeted higher growth through a supportive macro policy mix and expanding state-led initiatives, including the downstreaming and self-sufficiency agendas.
- Required reforms to raise long-term, inclusive growth:
  - Ambitious horizontal structural reforms on infrastructure, deregulation, reducing trade barriers, and further enhancing global integration to boost the supply side and generate strong MSMEs, higher FDI, and a dynamic private sector.
  - Closing physical, human capital (education and skills) and institutional (governance and anti-corruption) gaps is critical to increase long-term growth and lift productivity.
- Trade integration:
  - Staff analysis shows significantly deepening trade integration efforts with major partners—with a focus on reducing non-tariff barriers with complementary structural reforms to boost productivities across sectors—could be an important driver toward high-income status.
  - Recent efforts to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers and facilitate FDI have delivered on recent announcements of important agreements (Canada, EU-CEPA), while a potential deal with the US is well advanced; full details and implementation remain pending.

*IMF staff statement, November 14, 2025.*

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## References

- [Indonesia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/IDN/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
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- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/14/pr-25375-indonesia-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission_