{ "title": "Suriname: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission", "publication": "IMF News, November 20, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission/index.md", "summary": "– November 20, 2025: As Suriname celebrates 50 years of independence, it finds itself at a critical juncture. In recent years, it had commendably restored macroeconomic stability and significantly improved its institutional frameworks for macroeconomic policymaking.", "publishDate": "2025-11-20", "sections": [ { "heading": "Context and key message", "content": "- As Suriname celebrates 50 years of independence, it faces a critical juncture: macroeconomic stability has been restored in recent years and institutional frameworks improved, but the onset of a significant oil boom requires immediate action to build institutions to harness oil wealth.\n- Priority: maintain a prudent fiscal-monetary mix, improve governance, and strengthen institutional capacity to ensure oil revenues are used efficiently and productively." }, { "heading": "Growth, commodity outlook, and external sector", "content": "- Growth projections and drivers:\n - Growth has been decent and is expected to continue at around 2-3 percent in the next few years.\n - Gold production was disappointing in the current year.\n - Economic activity expected to be increasingly supported by the development of the Block 58 oil project.\n - Block 58 oil is expected to start in 2028 leading to a doubling of real GDP by 2030.\n- External and balance of payments:\n - The field development is import intensive and a large current account deficit is expected in 2026-28, financed by FDI inflows.\n - Foreign exchange reserves coverage remains adequate as insurance against external shocks." }, { "heading": "Macroeconomic risks and recent developments", "content": "- Fiscal and monetary pressures:\n - After primary surpluses in 2022-2024, the fiscal position has worsened.\n - Staff projects a primary deficit (on a cash basis and excluding a necessary central bank recapitalization) of about 1 percent of GDP in 2025 with a sizable increase in suppliers’ arrears.\n - Pre-election fiscal expansion significantly reduced government cash balances; resulting liquidity injection pressured the exchange rate and boosted demand.\n - Inflation increased from around 6 percent earlier in the year to over 10 percent.\n - Monetary aggregates have grown faster than central bank reserve money targets since late 2024; central bank intervened to moderate currency depreciation." }, { "heading": "Liability management operation", "content": "- Authorities executed a liability management operation centered on issuance of US$ 1.575 billion in 5- and 10-year Eurobonds.\n - Proceeds financed a cash tender offer for some existing 2033 Eurobonds.\n - Remainder held in an overseas escrow account to be used to buy back outstanding 2033 Eurobonds and some or all of the oil-linked value recovery instruments.\n - Resources could also prepay bilateral debt and will finance some interest payments on the new Eurobonds.\n- Purpose: shore up financing needed to service debt until after Block 58 oil revenues begin to flow." }, { "heading": "Fiscal policy recommendations and public finance", "content": "- Urgent need to improve fiscal balance in 2026-7:\n - Staff projects a primary balance of around 0 percent of GDP in 2026.\n - A larger and more credible consolidation, with clear policy measures, would reduce depreciation and inflationary pressures and help meet monetary goals.\n - Such improvements would create buffers against downside risks (example given: a 25 percent decline in gold prices could reduce fiscal revenues by 2 percent of GDP).\n- Fiscal framework and budgeting:\n - The government’s fiscal plan should be consistent with the recently legislated fiscal frameworks.\n - A five-year fiscal plan should be submitted to the National Assembly alongside the 2026 budget, with both annual spending ceilings and a target for debt (net of Savings and Stabilization Fund assets), this year.\n - Spending limits should be raised only gradually to allow improvement in execution capacity.\n - Strengthen public investment management practices and implement the Public Financial Management Priority Action Plan.\n - Operationalize the Savings and Stabilization Fund Suriname.\n- Expenditure and subsidies:\n - Electricity subsidies should be removed; automatic link between tariffs and costs of electricity production established in 2024 should be restored.\n - Electricity prices should continue rising towards cost-recovery.\n - Social assistance outlays have doubled over the past few years but show significant leakages; authorities reviewing programs to free up resources to expand coverage and raise adequacy of benefits.\n - Consider using resources freed by the debt operation to reduce the stock of supplier arrears." }, { "heading": "Revenue measures and administration", "content": "- Strengthen revenue administration and broaden tax base:\n - Transition to a Semi-Autonomous Revenue Authority to improve collection.\n - High international gold price may have increased smuggling; step up enforcement to ensure small-scale gold miners pay tax obligations.\n - Excise taxes are low by international standards and should be increased and applied to a broader range of products." }, { "heading": "Governance, transparency, and anticorruption", "content": "- Urgent need to strengthen transparency and anticorruption controls ahead of hydrocarbon revenues:\n - Implement the new procurement law immediately: publish all tenders, procurement contracts, names of awarded entities and their beneficial owners, and names of public officials awarding contracts; require ex-post validation of delivery.\n - Pass and promptly implement the amendment to the anti-corruption law to mandate declaration of income and assets of politically exposed persons, require verification and publication of these declarations, and establish dissuasive sanctions for non-compliance." }, { "heading": "State-owned enterprises (SOEs)", "content": "- SOE reforms and safeguards:\n - Financial operations of SOEs are not transparent; establish timely collection of necessary financial performance data.\n - Non-performing enterprises should be closed or sold.\n - For remaining SOEs, develop a broader roadmap to improve service delivery and safeguard public resources." }, { "heading": "Monetary, exchange rate, and central bank operations", "content": "- Reorient policy to preserve price stability:\n - Central bank should refocus on reserve money targets and establish clear reserve money targets for the coming year.\n - Meet targets via open market operations regardless of interest costs of sterilization.\n - Eliminate interest rate ceilings to allow market-determined rates and improve monetary transmission.\n - Phase out issuance of central bank certificates to aid transmission.\n - Use foreign exchange intervention only in response to disorderly market conditions (narrowly defined); review foreign exchange regulations including role of the Foreign Exchange Commission.\n- Institutional and operational enhancements:\n - Form a monetary policy committee to institutionalize decision making.\n - Publish a Monetary Policy Statement following policy decisions and a quarterly Monetary Policy Report.\n - Integrate data better, extend surveys of expectations, and improve forecasting.\n - Improve high-level coordination between the central bank and the Ministry of Finance and Planning.\n - Develop a strategy to transition to an interest-based framework, including introduction of a central bank deposit facility and development of an interbank market." }, { "heading": "Financial sector resilience and supervision", "content": "- Strengthen banks’ internal risk management:\n - Credit growth has been fast; monitor underwriting prudence, respect limits on net open FX positions, and ensure accurate loan classification.\n - Create a comprehensive credit registry to track borrower financial positions and reduce data gaps.\n - Operationalize the framework for bank resolution and develop contingency plans for downside scenarios.\n - Central bank should be ready to provide liquidity to banks; undercapitalized banks without viable plans should be quickly resolved." }, { "heading": "Structural reforms and business environment", "content": "- Improve business environment and address bottlenecks:\n - Institutional reforms to manage the oil boom are critical to address developmental challenges.\n - Key constraint identified by exporters and investors: government and regulatory inefficiency, especially bureaucratic delays.\n - International experience suggests structural reforms (improvements in human and physical capital and the regulatory environment) bring larger benefits than industrial policies such as special economic zones." }, { "heading": "Selected economic indicators (highlights from Table 1)", "content": "- Real sector (annual percentage change):\n - Real GDP: 2024 = 1.7; 2025 = 1.3; 2026 (Proj.) = 3.9\n - o/w Non-Natural Resource Real GDP: 2024 = 5.4; 2025 = 5.0\n - Nominal GDP: 2024 = 14.8; 2025 = 18.1; 2026 = 15.8\n - Consumer prices (end of period): 2024 = 10.1; 2025 = 12.1; 2026 = 8.6\n - Consumer prices (period average): 2024 = 16.2; 2025 = 9.3; 2026 = 11.0\n- Money and credit (annual percentage change):\n - Broad money: 2024 = 13.9; 2025 = 11.6; 2026 = 10.6\n - Private sector credit: 2024 = 16.0; 2025 = 28.9; 2026 = 10.6\n - Reserve money: 2024 = 21.2; 2025 = 14.0\n- Central government (percent of GDP):\n - Revenue and grants: 2024 = 26.9; 2025 = 28.1; 2026 = 27.4\n - Of which: Mineral revenue: 2024 = 10.9; 2025 = 10.5\n - Total expenditure 1/: 2024 = 29.3; 2025 = 38.2; 2026 = 32.9\n - Overall Balance (Net lending/borrowing): 2024 = -2.4; 2025 = -10.2; 2026 = -5.6\n - Primary Balance 1/: 2024 = 0.3; 2025 = -6.4; 2026 = -0.2\n - Primary Balance (excl central bank recap): 2024 = -1.1\n - Deposits at Central Bank: 2024 = 9.2; 2025 = 1.6; 2026 = 1.2\n - Central government debt: 2024 = 88.0; 2025 = 105.5; 2026 = 98.4\n - Domestic debt: 2024 = 14.4; 2025 = 16.4; 2026 = 16.9\n - External debt: 2024 = 73.6; 2025 = 89.1; 2026 = 81.5\n- External sector (percent of GDP):\n - Current account balance: 2024 = 0.2; 2025 = -35.3; 2026 = -51.4\n - Capital and financial account: 2024 = -30.2; 2025 = -52.9\n- Memorandum items:\n - Gross international reserves (US$ millions) 2/: 2024 = 1,373; 2025 = 1,208; 2026 = 1,279\n - In months of imports: 2024 = 6.4; 2025 = 3.3; 2026 = 2.8\n - Escrow Account (US$ millions): 2024 = 851.9; 2025 = 680.9\n - Exchange rate (SRD per USD, period average): 2024 = 33.05\n - Notes: 1/ Expenditure includes central bank recapitalization of 9,381 Million SRD. 2/ Excludes banks’ ring-fenced reserves.\n\nIMF staff concluding statement, November 20, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Suriname and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Mission Concluding Statements\n- PRESS CENTER\n- Article IV\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: November 20, 2025", "As Suriname celebrates 50 years of independence, it faces a critical juncture: macroeconomic stability has been restored in recent years and institutional frameworks improved, but the onset of a significant oil boom requires immediate action to build institutions to harness oil wealth.", "Priority: maintain a prudent fiscal-monetary mix, improve governance, and strengthen institutional capacity to ensure oil revenues are used efficiently and productively.", "Growth projections and drivers:", "External and balance of payments:", "Fiscal and monetary pressures:", "Authorities executed a liability management operation centered on issuance of US$ 1.575 billion in 5- and 10-year Eurobonds.", "Purpose: shore up financing needed to service debt until after Block 58 oil revenues begin to flow.", "Urgent need to improve fiscal balance in 2026-7:", "Fiscal framework and budgeting:", "Expenditure and subsidies:", "Strengthen revenue administration and broaden tax base:", "Urgent need to strengthen transparency and anticorruption controls ahead of hydrocarbon revenues:", "SOE reforms and safeguards:", "Reorient policy to preserve price stability:", "Institutional and operational enhancements:", "Strengthen banks’ internal risk management:", "Improve business environment and address bottlenecks:", "Real sector (annual percentage change):", "Money and credit (annual percentage change):", "Central government (percent of GDP):", "External sector (percent of GDP):", "Memorandum items:", "[Suriname and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SUR/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Mission Concluding Statements](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[Article IV](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/index.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/11/20/cs-suriname-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:16:46.542Z" }