{ "title": "IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Lithuania", "publication": "IMF News, November 24, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit/index.md", "summary": "An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Ms. Kazuko Shirono, visited Vilnius during November 17–21, 2025, to meet with the Lithuanian authorities and other stakeholders to discuss recent economic developments, the outlook, and policy priorities.", "publishDate": "2025-11-24", "sections": [ { "heading": "Mission overview", "content": "- Mission leader: Ms. Kazuko Shirono.\n- Visit dates: November 17–21, 2025.\n- Press Release No.: 25/383.\n- Press release date: November 24, 2025.\n- Note: End-of-Mission press releases convey preliminary findings after a visit. The views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.\n- The mission thanked the authorities and other counterparts in Lithuania for candid discussions and useful exchange of views." }, { "heading": "Growth and outlook", "content": "- 2025: \"Lithuania's economy is expected to grow moderately in 2025, supported by domestic demand.\"\n- 2024: \"After strong growth in 2024, momentum has been easing due to softening external demand and ongoing trade tensions.\"\n- 2026: \"In 2026, growth is expected to accelerate, driven by stronger private consumption on the back of anticipated Pillar II pension withdrawals and sustained wage gains, investment supported by EU funds, and a more accommodative monetary policy.\"\n- Risks: \"Weaker-than-expected external demand, particularly from key eurozone partners, and trade uncertainty could weigh on exports and dampen investment.\"" }, { "heading": "Inflation and wages", "content": "- Headline inflation: \"Headline and core inflation are expected to peak in 2025 before gradually easing and settling above 2 percent over the medium term.\"\n- Historical figures: \"After bottoming out at around 0.1 percent y/y in October 2024, headline inflation has rebounded, climbing to 3.7 percent in October 2025, largely reflecting higher excise duties, and food and services inflation.\"\n- Core inflation drivers: \"Core inflation remains elevated, primarily due to robust price growth in services, which is in turn driven by substantial wage increases.\"\n- Policy implication: \"Recent strong wage growth underscores the need to raise productivity to reduce cost-based price pressures and safeguard competitiveness.\"" }, { "heading": "Fiscal outlook and sustainability", "content": "- 2026 fiscal projection: \"Lithuania’s fiscal position is expected to deteriorate in 2026, with both deficit and debt set to increase due to higher defense and social spending.\"\n- EU rules and budget: \"While the government remains committed to complying with EU fiscal rules—utilizing the national defense clause to permit expanded spending—the proposed budget will place public debt on a rising path.\"\n- Long-term pressures: \"Lithuania will continue to face fiscal pressures from unfavorable demographic trends, defense needs and green transition.\"\n- Policy recommendations:\n - \"Preserve fiscal space by effectively mobilizing sustainable revenue sources and improving spending efficiency to maintain debt sustainability.\"\n - \"Strengthen the financial and social stability of the multi-pillar pension system\" to respond to adverse demographic shifts.\n - \"A comprehensive strategy that incorporates these elements is essential to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.\"" }, { "heading": "Financial sector and macroprudential issues", "content": "- Banking sector strength:\n - \"Capital and liquidity ratios well above regulatory requirements.\"\n - \"Strong deposit growth, and expanding loan portfolios.\"\n - \"Bank profitability remains solid, despite some decline.\"\n - \"Asset quality is high, with non-performing loans at historic lows.\"\n- Non-bank and fintech:\n - \"The non-bank sector is relatively small but has grown, with fintech activities expanding rapidly.\"\n - Supervision priority: \"Effective supervision of higher-risk fintech institutions remains a priority.\"\n- Real estate and risks:\n - \"Real estate activity is picking up as lower borrowing costs and wage growth have helped improve affordability, supporting real estate prices.\"\n - Macroprudential guidance: \"Macroprudential policies should continue to be calibrated in line with evolving financial stability risks and vigilance is warranted given persistent risks from trade tensions and cyber threats.\"\n\nSource: IMF Press Release No. 25/383 — IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Lithuania, November 24, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Republic of Lithuania and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: November 24, 2025", "Mission leader: Ms. Kazuko Shirono.", "Visit dates: November 17–21, 2025.", "Press Release No.: 25/383.", "Press release date: November 24, 2025.", "Note: End-of-Mission press releases convey preliminary findings after a visit. The views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.", "The mission thanked the authorities and other counterparts in Lithuania for candid discussions and useful exchange of views.", "2025: \"Lithuania's economy is expected to grow moderately in 2025, supported by domestic demand.\"", "2024: \"After strong growth in 2024, momentum has been easing due to softening external demand and ongoing trade tensions.\"", "2026: \"In 2026, growth is expected to accelerate, driven by stronger private consumption on the back of anticipated Pillar II pension withdrawals and sustained wage gains, investment supported by EU funds, and a more accommodative monetary policy.\"", "Risks: \"Weaker-than-expected external demand, particularly from key eurozone partners, and trade uncertainty could weigh on exports and dampen investment.\"", "Headline inflation: \"Headline and core inflation are expected to peak in 2025 before gradually easing and settling above 2 percent over the medium term.\"", "Historical figures: \"After bottoming out at around 0.1 percent y/y in October 2024, headline inflation has rebounded, climbing to 3.7 percent in October 2025, largely reflecting higher excise duties, and food and services inflation.\"", "Core inflation drivers: \"Core inflation remains elevated, primarily due to robust price growth in services, which is in turn driven by substantial wage increases.\"", "Policy implication: \"Recent strong wage growth underscores the need to raise productivity to reduce cost-based price pressures and safeguard competitiveness.\"", "2026 fiscal projection: \"Lithuania’s fiscal position is expected to deteriorate in 2026, with both deficit and debt set to increase due to higher defense and social spending.\"", "EU rules and budget: \"While the government remains committed to complying with EU fiscal rules—utilizing the national defense clause to permit expanded spending—the proposed budget will place public debt on a rising path.\"", "Long-term pressures: \"Lithuania will continue to face fiscal pressures from unfavorable demographic trends, defense needs and green transition.\"", "Policy recommendations:", "Banking sector strength:", "Non-bank and fintech:", "Real estate and risks:", "[Republic of Lithuania and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/LTU/index.htm)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2025/11/21/pr-25383-lithuania-imf-staff-concludes-visit/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:16:54.192Z" }