{
  "title": "IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Uzbekistan",
  "publication": "IMF News, November 26, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/26/pr-25397-uzbekistan-imf-staff-concludes-visit",
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  "summary": "An International Monetary Fund staff team, led by Mr. Yasser Abdih, met with Uzbekistan’s authorities from November 17 to 25, 2025 to discuss economic developments, the outlook, and policy priorities",
  "publishDate": "2025-11-26",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Mission summary",
      "content": "- An International Monetary Fund staff team, led by Mr. Yasser Abdih, met with Uzbekistan’s authorities from November 17 to 25, 2025 to discuss economic developments, the outlook, and policy priorities.\n- End-of-Mission press release: views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic performance and outlook",
      "content": "- Findings:\n  - Real GDP rose by 7.6 percent year-over-year (y/y) in the first three quarters of 2025 driven by buoyant investment and household consumption.\n  - Headline inflation eased to 7.8 percent y/y at end-October 2025.\n  - Core inflation eased to 6.6 percent y/y at end-October 2025.\n  - Household lending expanded by 23 percent y/y in September 2025 from a low base; corporate lending grew modestly.\n  - The external current account deficit narrowed markedly in the first half of 2025, underpinned by high gold prices, robust non-gold exports, and remittance inflows.\n  - At end-October 2025, international reserves remained ample at 12 months of prospective imports.\n- Projections and risks:\n  - Real GDP growth is expected to exceed 7 percent in 2025 and remain strong at around 6 percent in 2026, supported by robust consumption and investment.\n  - Inflation is projected to gradually converge to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) 5 percent target by end-2027.\n  - Downside external risks: uncertain global outlook, geopolitics, and commodity price volatility.\n  - Upside factors: faster structural reform implementation, stronger capital and remittance inflows, and higher gold prices.\n  - Domestic risks: procyclical spending of higher-than-budgeted revenues (including from gold) and pressures to expand directed and preferential lending programs, which could lead to overheating."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Findings:\n  - Authorities remain committed to the consolidated fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of GDP in 2025 and in 2026.\n  - The overperformance of revenue in 2025 has allowed for higher expenditures.\n- Recommendations:\n  - Minimize government expenditure increases in response to higher-than-budgeted revenues to:\n    - Contain inflationary demand pressures.\n    - Prevent unwarranted real exchange rate appreciation.\n    - Avoid an abrupt adjustment that may exacerbate macroeconomic volatility should gold prices fall.\n    - Build fiscal buffers.\n  - Broaden the tax base and raise the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio.\n  - Implement the medium-term revenue strategy and adopt the Tax Committee Reform and the Strategy for Combating the Shadow Economy.\n  - Limit new tax incentives; introduce a methodology to measure tax expenditures and publish tax expenditures in the budget.\n  - Strengthen on-site tax audits; bolster the power of the tax administration to enforce the tax code while respecting taxpayers’ rights."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Findings:\n  - The CBU has maintained the policy rate at 14 percent since March 2025.\n  - Headline and core inflation, and inflation expectations, have fallen but remain above target.\n  - There has been a welcome move towards more exchange rate flexibility since April 2025.\n- Recommendations:\n  - Maintain a tight monetary stance until inflation is on a firm downward trend towards the 5 percent target.\n  - Sustain exchange rate flexibility to support inflation targeting and enhance resilience to external shocks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and structural reforms",
      "content": "- Financial sector:\n  - Recommendation to accelerate financial sector reform, including the ongoing phase-out of directed and preferential lending.\n  - CBU’s plan to strengthen bank regulation and supervision following the 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) recommendations should be complemented by a broader roadmap covering the full set of FSAP recommendations, including those under the Ministry of Economy and Finance and other regulators.\n  - Roadmap would facilitate proper sequencing of reforms and provision of technical assistance.\n- Structural reforms:\n  - Continue privatizing and restructuring major SOEs, improve their governance, condition any financial support on credible restructuring plans.\n  - Strengthen competition and improve the business environment to foster a more dynamic private sector and reduce the state’s economic footprint.\n  - Sustain progress towards WTO accession, targeted for March 2026.\n  - Adopt and implement governance and anti-corruption reforms, including the conflict-of-interest law and progress towards parliamentary discussion of the Whistleblower Protection and Asset Declaration laws."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics (Selected Economic Indicators, 2024-26)",
      "content": "- National income\n  - Real GDP growth (percent change): 2024: 6.7; 2025: 7.3; 2026 Proj: 6.2\n  - Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum): 2024: 1,535; 2025: 1,826; 2026 Proj: 2,122\n  - GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars): 2024: 3,265; 2025: 3,845; 2026 Proj: 4,464\n  - Population (in millions): 2024: 37.2; 2025: 38.0; 2026 Proj: 38.7\n- Prices (percent change)\n  - Consumer price inflation (end of period): 2024: 9.8; 2025: 8.0; 2026 Proj: 6.5\n  - GDP deflator: 2024: 14.1; 2025: 10.8; 2026 Proj: 9.4\n- External sector (percent of GDP)\n  - Current account balance: 2024: -4.7; 2025: -3.3; 2026 Proj: -3.9\n  - External debt: 2024: 53.7; 2025: 50.0; 2026 Proj: 47.8\n  - Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period): 2024: 12,920; 2025: …\n- Government finance\n  - Consolidated budget revenues: 2024: 24.9; 2025: 26.2; 2026 Proj: 26.1\n  - Consolidated budget expenditures: 2024: 28.0; 2025: 29.2; 2026 Proj: 29.1\n  - Consolidated budget balance: 2024: -3.1; 2025: -3.0\n  - Adjusted revenues 2/ 3/: 2024: 23.9; 2025: 25.0; 2026 Proj: 24.5\n  - Adjusted expenditures 2/ 3/: 2024: 27.4; 2025: 26.7; 2026 Proj: (not separately listed)\n  - Adjusted fiscal balance: 2024: -2.2; 2025: -2.4\n  - Policy-based lending 3/: 2024: 0.9; 2025: 0.6; 2026 Proj: 0.8\n  - Overall fiscal balance / Public debt: 2024: 30.9; 2025: 28.3\n- Money and credit\n  - Reserve money: 2024: 9.5; 2025: 11.9; 2026 Proj: 10.0\n  - Broad money: 2024: 30.6; 2025: 23.3; 2026 Proj: 18.9\n  - Credit to the economy: 2024: 14.0; 2025: 15.1; 2026 Proj: 16.5\n\nSources: Country authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. Incorporates the November 2025 revision to national accounts data.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/26/pr-25397-uzbekistan-imf-staff-concludes-visit"
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    "Published: November 26, 2025",
    "An International Monetary Fund staff team, led by Mr. Yasser Abdih, met with Uzbekistan’s authorities from November 17 to 25, 2025 to discuss economic developments, the outlook, and policy priorities.",
    "End-of-Mission press release: views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.",
    "Findings:",
    "Projections and risks:",
    "Findings:",
    "Recommendations:",
    "Findings:",
    "Recommendations:",
    "Financial sector:",
    "Structural reforms:",
    "National income",
    "Prices (percent change)",
    "External sector (percent of GDP)",
    "Government finance",
    "Money and credit",
    "[Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UZB/index.htm)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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