{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with The Sultanate of Oman",
  "publication": "IMF News, January 15, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/14/pr-2604-oman-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consult",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for The Sultanate of Oman. This also included a discussion of the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) exercise for Oman",
  "publishDate": "2026-01-15",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and Outlook",
      "content": "- Oman’s economy demonstrated strong resilience to shocks, with economic activity expanding amidst low inflation and fiscal and external positions remaining strong.\n- Growth outcomes and near-term developments:\n  - Real GDP growth: 1.6 percent in 2024.\n  - Real GDP growth: 2.3 percent (year on year) in the first half of 2025.\n  - Real nonhydrocarbon GDP growth: 3.5 percent (year on year) in the first half of 2025.\n- Inflation:\n  - Consumer prices averaged 0.6 percent in 2024.\n  - Inflation edged up to 0.9 percent during January-October 2025.\n- Medium-term outlook:\n  - Growth is expected to strengthen further as oil production gradually returns to capacity and nonhydrocarbon activity remains robust, supported by reforms under Vision 2040 and large-scale investment projects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and External Positions",
      "content": "- Fiscal outcomes and developments:\n  - Overall fiscal balance estimated at 0.7 percent of GDP in 2025 (surplus).\n  - The nonhydrocarbon primary deficit is estimated to have narrowed by 2 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP in 2025.\n  - Government debt stood at 36.1 percent of GDP by September 2025.\n- External outcomes:\n  - The current account balance is estimated to have turned into a deficit of 1.1 percent of GDP in 2025, weighed down by softer oil prices.\n- Selected oil & production indicators (2025):\n  - Average crude oil export price: 70.6 US$/barrel.\n  - Crude and condensates oil production: 1.005 (in millions of barrels/day).\n  - Natural gas production: 152.3 (in millions of cubic meters per day)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial Sector and FSAP Findings",
      "content": "- The 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) found:\n  - The financial sector to be resilient against severe shocks.\n  - Banks remain sound, with ample capital and liquidity buffers and robust profitability.\n- Monetary and financial policy recommendations from Directors:\n  - Implement the Treasury Single Account and transition to an active liquidity management framework to strengthen monetary policy transmission.\n  - Ensure the Central Bank of Oman’s expanded development mandate remains anchored in price and financial stability objectives.\n  - Operationalize a macroprudential strategy; continue to enhance supervision and regulation.\n  - Improve AML/CFT frameworks; further strengthen financial safety net and crisis management frameworks.\n  - Deepen capital markets and address structural impediments to SME financing."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks to the Outlook",
      "content": "- Downside risks (tilted to the downside in the near term):\n  - Escalation of trade tensions and geoeconomic fragmentation weakening global demand and oil prices.\n  - Renewed regional geopolitical tensions disrupting trade and dampening tourism and investment.\n- Upside scenarios:\n  - Higher oil prices from a global growth upturn or intensified geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply.\n  - Accelerated structural reforms bolstering confidence and enhancing economic diversification."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board Assessment and Policy Recommendations",
      "content": "- Directors’ overall view:\n  - Agreed with the thrust of staff appraisal; commended Oman’s resilience and steady reform implementation under Vision 2040.\n  - Highlighted robust expansion of nonhydrocarbon activities and strengthening fiscal and external positions.\n  - Emphasized sustaining prudent policies and reform momentum to diversify the economy and enhance potential growth.\n- Key fiscal policy recommendations:\n  - Further advance tax policy and administration reforms.\n  - Phase out untargeted subsidies while protecting the most vulnerable.\n  - Rationalize non-essential spending.\n  - Reinforce fiscal frameworks, governance, and transparency: develop a fiscal rule; strengthen public investment management; strengthen budget preparation and execution.\n  - Consolidate stabilization funds; strengthen debt management; develop sovereign asset-liability management.\n- Structural and labor market recommendations:\n  - Narrow the public private-sector wage gap.\n  - Increase female labor force participation.\n  - Boost educational and vocational training outcomes.\n  - Improve the business environment, SOE transparency, and data provision.\n  - Pursue deeper trade integration and advance digitalization and AI readiness to develop a competitive nonhydrocarbon tradable sector."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Indicators (selected exact figures cited)",
      "content": "- Growth and inflation:\n  - Real GDP growth: 1.6 percent (2024); 2.3 percent (H1 2025).\n  - Real nonhydrocarbon GDP growth: 3.5 percent (H1 2025).\n  - Consumer prices (average): 0.6 percent (2024); 0.9 percent (Jan–Oct 2025).\n- Fiscal and debt metrics:\n  - Overall balance: 0.7 percent of GDP (2025).\n  - Nonhydrocarbon primary deficit narrowed by 2 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP (2025).\n  - Government debt: 36.1 percent of GDP (by September 2025).\n- External and oil sector:\n  - Current account balance: deficit of 1.1 percent of GDP (2025).\n  - Average crude oil export price: 70.6 US$/barrel (2025).\n  - Crude and condensates production: 1.005 (millions of barrels/day) (2025).\n  - Natural gas production: 152.3 (millions of cubic meters per day) (2025).\n\nSource: IMF press release, January 15, 2026.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Oman and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/14/pr-2604-oman-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consult"
    }
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    "Published: January 15, 2026",
    "Oman’s economy demonstrated strong resilience to shocks, with economic activity expanding amidst low inflation and fiscal and external positions remaining strong.",
    "Growth outcomes and near-term developments:",
    "Inflation:",
    "Medium-term outlook:",
    "Fiscal outcomes and developments:",
    "External outcomes:",
    "Selected oil & production indicators (2025):",
    "The 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) found:",
    "Monetary and financial policy recommendations from Directors:",
    "Downside risks (tilted to the downside in the near term):",
    "Upside scenarios:",
    "Directors’ overall view:",
    "Key fiscal policy recommendations:",
    "Structural and labor market recommendations:",
    "Growth and inflation:",
    "Fiscal and debt metrics:",
    "External and oil sector:",
    "[Oman and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/OMN/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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