## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with The Sultanate of Oman

_IMF News, January 15, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: January 15, 2026

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### Overview and Outlook
- Oman’s economy demonstrated strong resilience to shocks, with economic activity expanding amidst low inflation and fiscal and external positions remaining strong.
- Growth outcomes and near-term developments:
  - Real GDP growth: 1.6 percent in 2024.
  - Real GDP growth: 2.3 percent (year on year) in the first half of 2025.
  - Real nonhydrocarbon GDP growth: 3.5 percent (year on year) in the first half of 2025.
- Inflation:
  - Consumer prices averaged 0.6 percent in 2024.
  - Inflation edged up to 0.9 percent during January-October 2025.
- Medium-term outlook:
  - Growth is expected to strengthen further as oil production gradually returns to capacity and nonhydrocarbon activity remains robust, supported by reforms under Vision 2040 and large-scale investment projects.

### Fiscal and External Positions
- Fiscal outcomes and developments:
  - Overall fiscal balance estimated at 0.7 percent of GDP in 2025 (surplus).
  - The nonhydrocarbon primary deficit is estimated to have narrowed by 2 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP in 2025.
  - Government debt stood at 36.1 percent of GDP by September 2025.
- External outcomes:
  - The current account balance is estimated to have turned into a deficit of 1.1 percent of GDP in 2025, weighed down by softer oil prices.
- Selected oil & production indicators (2025):
  - Average crude oil export price: 70.6 US$/barrel.
  - Crude and condensates oil production: 1.005 (in millions of barrels/day).
  - Natural gas production: 152.3 (in millions of cubic meters per day).

### Financial Sector and FSAP Findings
- The 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) found:
  - The financial sector to be resilient against severe shocks.
  - Banks remain sound, with ample capital and liquidity buffers and robust profitability.
- Monetary and financial policy recommendations from Directors:
  - Implement the Treasury Single Account and transition to an active liquidity management framework to strengthen monetary policy transmission.
  - Ensure the Central Bank of Oman’s expanded development mandate remains anchored in price and financial stability objectives.
  - Operationalize a macroprudential strategy; continue to enhance supervision and regulation.
  - Improve AML/CFT frameworks; further strengthen financial safety net and crisis management frameworks.
  - Deepen capital markets and address structural impediments to SME financing.

### Risks to the Outlook
- Downside risks (tilted to the downside in the near term):
  - Escalation of trade tensions and geoeconomic fragmentation weakening global demand and oil prices.
  - Renewed regional geopolitical tensions disrupting trade and dampening tourism and investment.
- Upside scenarios:
  - Higher oil prices from a global growth upturn or intensified geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply.
  - Accelerated structural reforms bolstering confidence and enhancing economic diversification.

### Executive Board Assessment and Policy Recommendations
- Directors’ overall view:
  - Agreed with the thrust of staff appraisal; commended Oman’s resilience and steady reform implementation under Vision 2040.
  - Highlighted robust expansion of nonhydrocarbon activities and strengthening fiscal and external positions.
  - Emphasized sustaining prudent policies and reform momentum to diversify the economy and enhance potential growth.
- Key fiscal policy recommendations:
  - Further advance tax policy and administration reforms.
  - Phase out untargeted subsidies while protecting the most vulnerable.
  - Rationalize non-essential spending.
  - Reinforce fiscal frameworks, governance, and transparency: develop a fiscal rule; strengthen public investment management; strengthen budget preparation and execution.
  - Consolidate stabilization funds; strengthen debt management; develop sovereign asset-liability management.
- Structural and labor market recommendations:
  - Narrow the public private-sector wage gap.
  - Increase female labor force participation.
  - Boost educational and vocational training outcomes.
  - Improve the business environment, SOE transparency, and data provision.
  - Pursue deeper trade integration and advance digitalization and AI readiness to develop a competitive nonhydrocarbon tradable sector.

### Key Indicators (selected exact figures cited)
- Growth and inflation:
  - Real GDP growth: 1.6 percent (2024); 2.3 percent (H1 2025).
  - Real nonhydrocarbon GDP growth: 3.5 percent (H1 2025).
  - Consumer prices (average): 0.6 percent (2024); 0.9 percent (Jan–Oct 2025).
- Fiscal and debt metrics:
  - Overall balance: 0.7 percent of GDP (2025).
  - Nonhydrocarbon primary deficit narrowed by 2 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP (2025).
  - Government debt: 36.1 percent of GDP (by September 2025).
- External and oil sector:
  - Current account balance: deficit of 1.1 percent of GDP (2025).
  - Average crude oil export price: 70.6 US$/barrel (2025).
  - Crude and condensates production: 1.005 (millions of barrels/day) (2025).
  - Natural gas production: 152.3 (millions of cubic meters per day) (2025).

*Source: IMF press release, January 15, 2026.*

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## References

- [Oman and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/OMN/index.htm)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/14/pr-2604-oman-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consult_