{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Completes the Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Ethiopia",
  "publication": "IMF News, January 16, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/16/pr-26009-ethiopia-imf-completes-4th-rev-under-ecf-arrangement",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the fourth review of the 48-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Ethiopia. The",
  "publishDate": "2026-01-16",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Review outcome and disbursement",
      "content": "- The Executive Board completed the fourth review of the 48-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Ethiopia on January 16, 2026.\n- The Board’s decision allows for an immediate disbursement of about US$261 million (SDR 191.7 million).\n- Total disbursements under the arrangement to date: about US$2.183 billion.\n- Original ECF arrangement size at approval (July 29, 2024): SDR 2.556 billion (850 percent of quota) or about US$3.4 billion."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Program performance and reform implementation",
      "content": "- Overall program performance: broadly in line with program commitments.\n- All quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and most indicative targets (ITs) were met.\n- A new QPC introduced: a zero limit on foreign exchange (FX) intervention except through auctions.\n- Government contribution to targeted social safety nets (indicative target) was lower-than-targeted to prioritize absorption of development partner contributions.\n- Most structural benchmarks met; the Federal Budget for FY25/26 deviated from program parameters agreed at the third review (missed structural benchmark).\n- The structural benchmark on the publication of Ethiopian Investment Holdings’ (EIH) financial statements was not met due to implementation delays.\n- Authorities committed to measures to ensure the fiscal deficit is financeable and expenditures remain consistent with program objectives."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy, FX market, and financial sector",
      "content": "- Maintaining a tight monetary stance is appropriate to anchor inflation expectations and support further declines in inflation.\n- Authorities are taking steps to enhance the functioning of the foreign exchange market.\n- National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) actions highlighted:\n  - Publishing FX auction guidelines consistent with international best practice.\n  - Limiting FX intervention to auctions.\n  - Developing a plan to bring the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia’s Net Open FX Position within prudential limits.\n  - Finalization of NBE’s governance reform plan, including appointing new Board members in line with the amended central bank law.\n- Recommendations to strengthen markets and transmission:\n  - Develop the interbank FX market to strengthen banks’ FX risk management and enhance transparency.\n  - Interbank market and repo market development to support monetary policy transmission.\n  - Recently-approved increases in reserve requirements to maintain tight liquidity conditions.\n  - Phased exit from the cap on private credit growth to progress toward an interest-rate based monetary policy framework while avoiding an overly rapid expansion of credit.\n- Financial stability:\n  - Continued efforts to strengthen financial sector oversight and build the financial sector safety net.\n  - Strengthening NBE’s financial position in due course."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy, revenue mobilization, and expenditure",
      "content": "- Revenue mobilization has been strong.\n- Recent tax policy reforms expected to broaden the tax base and raise revenue potential.\n- Importance of tax and customs administration reforms to broaden the tax base fairly and sustainably.\n- Policy guidance:\n  - Continued prudence in raising spending despite occasional strong pressures, consistent with revenue performance.\n  - Efforts to develop domestic sources of financing are essential to maintain sustainable fiscal policy.\n  - Phasing out fuel subsidies is important for rebuilding fiscal buffers and improving spending efficiency.\n  - Social protection expenditure should be safeguarded."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Debt treatment and external financing",
      "content": "- Authorities continue efforts to restore debt sustainability and secure a debt treatment.\n- Progress on debt restructuring negotiations under the Common Framework, including completion of the signing of the Official Creditor Committee Memorandum of Understanding.\n- Discussions with private external creditors are ongoing.\n- Financing assurances received and adjustment efforts made are consistent with IMF policy requirements and program parameters.\n- Guidance: continued avoidance of non-concessional borrowing, except financing for the Koysha dam project, and careful evaluation of proposed new concessional debt to contain debt vulnerabilities."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Ethiopia — Selected Economic Indicators, 2022/23–2029/2030 (Prel./Proj.)",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth (%):\n  - 2022/23: 7.2\n  - 2023/24: 8.1\n  - 2024/25: 9.2\n  - 2025/26: 9.3\n  - 2026/27: 8.6\n  - 2027/28: 8.5\n  - 2028/29: 8.0\n- Inflation - average (%):\n  - 2022/23: 32.5\n  - 2023/24: 26.6\n  - 2024/25: 16.0\n  - 2025/26: 11.9\n  - 2026/27: 8.3\n  - 2027/28: 6.2\n- General government finances (% of GDP):\n  - Revenue:\n    - 2022/23: 7.9\n    - 2023/24: 7.3\n    - 2024/25: 10.5\n    - 2025/26: 11.2\n    - 2026/27: 11.7\n    - 2027/28: 12.1\n    - 2028/29: 12.3\n  - Expenditure:\n    - 2022/23: 10.8\n    - 2023/24: 9.5\n    - 2024/25: 12.0\n    - 2025/26: 13.1\n    - 2026/27: 12.8\n    - 2027/28: 13.9\n    - 2028/29: 14.1\n    - 2029/30: 14.3\n  - Fiscal balance, including grants:\n    - 2022/23: -2.6\n    - 2023/24: -2.0\n    - 2024/25: -1.2\n    - 2025/26: -1.8\n    - 2026/27: -1.1\n    - 2027/28: -1.7\n    - 2028/29: -1.6\n- Public debt (% GDP)1:\n  - 2022/23: 40.2\n  - 2023/24: 35.4\n  - 2024/25: 50.3\n  - 2025/26: 45.1\n  - 2026/27: 40.7\n  - 2027/28: 37.6\n  - 2028/29: 34.5\n  - 2029/30: 31.8\n  - 1/ Public and publicly guaranteed external debt, which includes long-term foreign liabilities of NBE and external debt of Ethio-Telecom. Does not include expected debt relief.\n- Money and Credit:\n  - Broad money (% change):\n    - 2022/23: 35.2\n    - 2023/24: 25.9\n    - 2024/25: 21.8\n    - 2025/26: 22.6\n    - 2026/27: 22.0\n    - 2027/28: 21.4\n  - Credit to private sector and state-owned enterprises (% change)2:\n    - 2022/23: 28.6\n    - 2023/24: -9.7\n    - 2024/25: 31.3\n    - 2025/26: 23.2\n    - 2026/27: 18.9\n    - 2/ Projections from 25/26 include impact of CBE recapitalization\n- Balance of payments:\n  - Current account (% GDP):\n    - 2022/23: -2.9\n    - 2023/24: -2.3\n  - FDI (% GDP):\n    - 2022/23: 2.1\n    - 2023/24: 1.9\n    - 2024/25: 3.2\n    - 2025/26: 2.9\n    - 2026/27: 3.0\n    - 2027/28: 3.1\n  - Reserves (in months of imports):\n    - 2022/23: 0.5\n    - 2023/24: 0.7\n    - 2024/25: 2.2\n    - 2025/26: 2.7\n    - 2026/27: 3.5\n    - 2027/28: 3.7\n    - 2028/29: 3.9\n  - External debt (% GDP):\n    - 2022/23: 18.1\n    - 2023/24: 15.7\n    - 2024/25: 31.6\n    - 2025/26: 29.8\n    - 2026/27: 27.0\n    - 2027/28: 24.4\n    - 2028/29: 21.2\n    - 2029/30: 18.4\n- Exchange rate:\n  - Real effective exchange rate (% change, end of period, depreciation –):\n    - 2022/23: 24.1\n    - 2023/24: 12.4\n    - 2024/25: -44.2\n\nPress Release No. 26/009, January 16, 2026 — International Monetary Fund.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- Extended Credit Facility\n- Press Release 24/291\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/16/pr-26009-ethiopia-imf-completes-4th-rev-under-ecf-arrangement"
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    "Published: January 16, 2026",
    "The Executive Board completed the fourth review of the 48-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Ethiopia on January 16, 2026.",
    "The Board’s decision allows for an immediate disbursement of about US$261 million (SDR 191.7 million).",
    "Total disbursements under the arrangement to date: about US$2.183 billion.",
    "Original ECF arrangement size at approval (July 29, 2024): SDR 2.556 billion (850 percent of quota) or about US$3.4 billion.",
    "Overall program performance: broadly in line with program commitments.",
    "All quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and most indicative targets (ITs) were met.",
    "A new QPC introduced: a zero limit on foreign exchange (FX) intervention except through auctions.",
    "Government contribution to targeted social safety nets (indicative target) was lower-than-targeted to prioritize absorption of development partner contributions.",
    "Most structural benchmarks met; the Federal Budget for FY25/26 deviated from program parameters agreed at the third review (missed structural benchmark).",
    "The structural benchmark on the publication of Ethiopian Investment Holdings’ (EIH) financial statements was not met due to implementation delays.",
    "Authorities committed to measures to ensure the fiscal deficit is financeable and expenditures remain consistent with program objectives.",
    "Maintaining a tight monetary stance is appropriate to anchor inflation expectations and support further declines in inflation.",
    "Authorities are taking steps to enhance the functioning of the foreign exchange market.",
    "National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) actions highlighted:",
    "Recommendations to strengthen markets and transmission:",
    "Financial stability:",
    "Revenue mobilization has been strong.",
    "Recent tax policy reforms expected to broaden the tax base and raise revenue potential.",
    "Importance of tax and customs administration reforms to broaden the tax base fairly and sustainably.",
    "Policy guidance:",
    "Authorities continue efforts to restore debt sustainability and secure a debt treatment.",
    "Progress on debt restructuring negotiations under the Common Framework, including completion of the signing of the Official Creditor Committee Memorandum of Understanding.",
    "Discussions with private external creditors are ongoing.",
    "Financing assurances received and adjustment efforts made are consistent with IMF policy requirements and program parameters.",
    "Guidance: continued avoidance of non-concessional borrowing, except financing for the Koysha dam project, and careful evaluation of proposed new concessional debt to contain debt vulnerabilities.",
    "Real GDP growth (%):",
    "Inflation - average (%):",
    "General government finances (% of GDP):",
    "Public debt (% GDP)1:",
    "Money and Credit:",
    "Balance of payments:",
    "Exchange rate:",
    "[The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ETH/index.htm)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[Extended Credit Facility](https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/02/21/04/Extended-Credit-Facility)",
    "[Press Release 24/291](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/07/29/pr24291-ethiopia-imf-exec-board-approves-4yr-us3b-ecf-arr)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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