{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Grenada",
  "publication": "IMF News, January 21, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Grenada , and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.",
  "publishDate": "2026-01-21",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Grenada and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.\n- Date on page: January 21, 2026.\n- Press Release No. 26/011."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic performance in 2025",
      "content": "- Growth in 2025 is estimated to have accelerated to 4.4 percent, driven by strong investment and construction activity.\n- Inflation has continued to moderate, reflecting easing global food and fuel prices; consumer prices, end of period (2025): 0.3.\n- The fiscal position remains comfortable notwithstanding a temporary suspension of fiscal rules and an estimated 2025 primary deficit of 3.2 percent of GDP.\n- Effectiveness of Grenada’s post-disaster financing framework and prudent savings of recent citizenship-by-investment (CBI) revenues provided space for continued investment in key development priorities.\n- The financial sector remains stable, with a modest post-hurricane impact."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Medium-term outlook and key projections",
      "content": "- GDP growth is projected to gradually moderate to an estimated potential rate of 2.7 percent by 2029.\n- Anticipated return to the 1.5 percent of GDP central government primary balance floor from 2027 would support putting public debt on a sustainable trajectory.\n- Public debt target: 60 percent of GDP projected to be achieved by 2033.\n- Selected projected output and price series (annual):\n  - Real GDP (2025–2030): 4.4, 3.2, 3.0, 2.9, 2.7 (for 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 respectively).\n  - Nominal GDP (2025–2029): 4.3, 4.9, 4.8, 5.1 (note: table provides multiple year entries; preserve series as presented).\n  - Consumer prices, period average (2025): 0.7.\n- Balance of payments and external sector:\n  - Current account balance (2025): -21.1 (percent of GDP, table shows -21.1 for 2024 and -17.5 for 2025—see table for year mapping).\n  - Exports of goods and services series include 58.9 (2024) and 59.3 (2025) as reported in the table.\n  - Imports of goods and services series include 70.1 (2024) and 67.2 (2025) as reported in the table.\n  - External debt (gross) series: 83.8 (2024), 79.0 (2025), 76.6 (2026).\n- Memo items:\n  - Nominal GDP (millions of EC$): 3,768 (2024), 3,961 (2025), 4,133 (2026).\n  - Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) inflows (percent of GDP): 7.7 (2024), 7.1 (2025), 7.0 (2026).\n  - Government CBI revenue (Percent of GDP): 14.7 (2024), 3.5 (2025)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Downside and upside risks",
      "content": "- Key downside risks:\n  - High susceptibility to shocks associated with tourism and import dependency.\n  - Vulnerability to natural disasters.\n  - Disruptions to CBI and FDI inflows.\n  - Materialization of risks in the domestic non-bank financial system.\n  - Delays or cost overruns in large investment projects.\n- Main upside risk:\n  - Faster-than-projected tourism resort developments.\n- Buffers and mitigation:\n  - A robust disaster resilience framework and government deposits provide important buffers against shocks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Short-run fiscal stance:\n  - The temporary suspension of the primary balance rule provided fiscal space for post-disaster reconstruction without disrupting other priority spending.\n  - Estimated 2025 primary deficit: 3.2 percent of GDP.\n- Recommendation to return to fiscal rules:\n  - Returning to the fiscal rules in 2027 is important to safeguard fiscal discipline and keep debt on a sustainable path.\n  - Anticipated return to the 1.5 percent of GDP central government primary balance floor from 2027.\n- Rule perimeter and reporting:\n  - The perimeter of the primary balance rule could be better aligned with the general government debt anchor.\n  - Recommendation to capture government off-budget and public on-lending-financed investments within the rule.\n  - Interim guidance: such investments should be included in central government budget planning and adhere to equivalent reporting and auditing standards.\n- Public investment management:\n  - Fiscal risks from ambitious public investment projects require careful management: strengthen project management to minimize delays or cost overruns; assess future operating and maintenance costs to avoid unfunded liabilities.\n  - Operationalize the PPP framework to catalyze private investment (noted example: Project Polaris).\n  - Strengthen management of CBI resources, improve MTFF projections, and clear the backlog of audited government statements.\n- SOE and statutory body oversight:\n  - Continue progress in strengthening SOE and statutory body oversight with a view to eventual integration into the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector, credit, and AML/CFT",
      "content": "- Credit trends:\n  - Accelerating system-wide credit growth and non-bank vulnerabilities require careful monitoring.\n  - Credit to private sector series show acceleration (table entries include 3.1, 3.8, 10.4, 5.4, 5.2).\n- Risk areas and recommended actions:\n  - Ensure loan loss provisions are sufficient in credit unions and step up forbearance monitoring.\n  - Enhance monitoring of reinsurance conditions and local market pricing in the general insurance sector.\n  - Authorities are encouraged to maintain recent momentum in strengthening the AML/CFT framework."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms, competitiveness, and resilience",
      "content": "- Need to strengthen domestic foundations of growth:\n  - Facilitate local investment and business development.\n  - Enhance locally offered tourism services and intersectoral linkages.\n  - Reduce goods trade frictions.\n  - Strengthen human capital and productivity.\n- Infrastructure and resilience:\n  - Infrastructure project decisions should pay close attention to disaster resilience in alignment with the updated National Adaptation plan."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data and institutional capacity",
      "content": "- Data gaps and capacity constraints:\n  - Important data deficiencies include balance of payments coverage, monitoring of large investment projects, outdated CPI weights, and missing GDP expenditure data.\n  - Capacity constraints from persistent staffing shortages and turnover warrant prioritized attention.\n- Recommended institutional actions:\n  - Improve quality of economic data and institutional capacity to support informed policymaking.\n  - Align priorities with the ongoing public sector functional review and staff regularization process."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and social indicators (as reported)",
      "content": "- Rank in UNDP Human Development Index: 73 (out of 189 countries, 2023).\n- Infant mortality rate per '000 births (2021): 14.4.\n- Adult illiteracy rate in percent (2014): 1.\n- Life expectancy at birth in years (2021): 75.\n- Poverty rate in percent of population (2019): 25.\n- GDP per capita in US$ (2023): 10,449.\n- Unemployment rate (2025 Q2): 10.8.\n- Population in millions (2023): 0.13.\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Grenada, Press Release No. 26/011.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Jamaica and the IMF\n- Grenada and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: January 21, 2026",
    "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Grenada and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.",
    "Date on page: January 21, 2026.",
    "Press Release No. 26/011.",
    "Growth in 2025 is estimated to have accelerated to 4.4 percent, driven by strong investment and construction activity.",
    "Inflation has continued to moderate, reflecting easing global food and fuel prices; consumer prices, end of period (2025): 0.3.",
    "The fiscal position remains comfortable notwithstanding a temporary suspension of fiscal rules and an estimated 2025 primary deficit of 3.2 percent of GDP.",
    "Effectiveness of Grenada’s post-disaster financing framework and prudent savings of recent citizenship-by-investment (CBI) revenues provided space for continued investment in key development priorities.",
    "The financial sector remains stable, with a modest post-hurricane impact.",
    "GDP growth is projected to gradually moderate to an estimated potential rate of 2.7 percent by 2029.",
    "Anticipated return to the 1.5 percent of GDP central government primary balance floor from 2027 would support putting public debt on a sustainable trajectory.",
    "Public debt target: 60 percent of GDP projected to be achieved by 2033.",
    "Selected projected output and price series (annual):",
    "Balance of payments and external sector:",
    "Memo items:",
    "Key downside risks:",
    "Main upside risk:",
    "Buffers and mitigation:",
    "Short-run fiscal stance:",
    "Recommendation to return to fiscal rules:",
    "Rule perimeter and reporting:",
    "Public investment management:",
    "SOE and statutory body oversight:",
    "Credit trends:",
    "Risk areas and recommended actions:",
    "Need to strengthen domestic foundations of growth:",
    "Infrastructure and resilience:",
    "Data gaps and capacity constraints:",
    "Recommended institutional actions:",
    "Rank in UNDP Human Development Index: 73 (out of 189 countries, 2023).",
    "Infant mortality rate per '000 births (2021): 14.4.",
    "Adult illiteracy rate in percent (2014): 1.",
    "Life expectancy at birth in years (2021): 75.",
    "Poverty rate in percent of population (2019): 25.",
    "GDP per capita in US$ (2023): 10,449.",
    "Unemployment rate (2025 Q2): 10.8.",
    "Population in millions (2023): 0.13.",
    "[Jamaica and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/JAM/index.htm)",
    "[Grenada and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GRD/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:23:08.328Z"
}