## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Grenada _IMF News, January 21, 2026_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Grenada](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: January 21, 2026 --- ### Overview - The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Grenada and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting. - Date on page: January 21, 2026. - Press Release No. 26/011. ### Economic performance in 2025 - Growth in 2025 is estimated to have accelerated to 4.4 percent, driven by strong investment and construction activity. - Inflation has continued to moderate, reflecting easing global food and fuel prices; consumer prices, end of period (2025): 0.3. - The fiscal position remains comfortable notwithstanding a temporary suspension of fiscal rules and an estimated 2025 primary deficit of 3.2 percent of GDP. - Effectiveness of Grenada’s post-disaster financing framework and prudent savings of recent citizenship-by-investment (CBI) revenues provided space for continued investment in key development priorities. - The financial sector remains stable, with a modest post-hurricane impact. ### Medium-term outlook and key projections - GDP growth is projected to gradually moderate to an estimated potential rate of 2.7 percent by 2029. - Anticipated return to the 1.5 percent of GDP central government primary balance floor from 2027 would support putting public debt on a sustainable trajectory. - Public debt target: 60 percent of GDP projected to be achieved by 2033. - Selected projected output and price series (annual): - Real GDP (2025–2030): 4.4, 3.2, 3.0, 2.9, 2.7 (for 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 respectively). - Nominal GDP (2025–2029): 4.3, 4.9, 4.8, 5.1 (note: table provides multiple year entries; preserve series as presented). - Consumer prices, period average (2025): 0.7. - Balance of payments and external sector: - Current account balance (2025): -21.1 (percent of GDP, table shows -21.1 for 2024 and -17.5 for 2025—see table for year mapping). - Exports of goods and services series include 58.9 (2024) and 59.3 (2025) as reported in the table. - Imports of goods and services series include 70.1 (2024) and 67.2 (2025) as reported in the table. - External debt (gross) series: 83.8 (2024), 79.0 (2025), 76.6 (2026). - Memo items: - Nominal GDP (millions of EC$): 3,768 (2024), 3,961 (2025), 4,133 (2026). - Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) inflows (percent of GDP): 7.7 (2024), 7.1 (2025), 7.0 (2026). - Government CBI revenue (Percent of GDP): 14.7 (2024), 3.5 (2025). ### Downside and upside risks - Key downside risks: - High susceptibility to shocks associated with tourism and import dependency. - Vulnerability to natural disasters. - Disruptions to CBI and FDI inflows. - Materialization of risks in the domestic non-bank financial system. - Delays or cost overruns in large investment projects. - Main upside risk: - Faster-than-projected tourism resort developments. - Buffers and mitigation: - A robust disaster resilience framework and government deposits provide important buffers against shocks. ### Fiscal assessment and policy recommendations - Short-run fiscal stance: - The temporary suspension of the primary balance rule provided fiscal space for post-disaster reconstruction without disrupting other priority spending. - Estimated 2025 primary deficit: 3.2 percent of GDP. - Recommendation to return to fiscal rules: - Returning to the fiscal rules in 2027 is important to safeguard fiscal discipline and keep debt on a sustainable path. - Anticipated return to the 1.5 percent of GDP central government primary balance floor from 2027. - Rule perimeter and reporting: - The perimeter of the primary balance rule could be better aligned with the general government debt anchor. - Recommendation to capture government off-budget and public on-lending-financed investments within the rule. - Interim guidance: such investments should be included in central government budget planning and adhere to equivalent reporting and auditing standards. - Public investment management: - Fiscal risks from ambitious public investment projects require careful management: strengthen project management to minimize delays or cost overruns; assess future operating and maintenance costs to avoid unfunded liabilities. - Operationalize the PPP framework to catalyze private investment (noted example: Project Polaris). - Strengthen management of CBI resources, improve MTFF projections, and clear the backlog of audited government statements. - SOE and statutory body oversight: - Continue progress in strengthening SOE and statutory body oversight with a view to eventual integration into the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework. ### Financial sector, credit, and AML/CFT - Credit trends: - Accelerating system-wide credit growth and non-bank vulnerabilities require careful monitoring. - Credit to private sector series show acceleration (table entries include 3.1, 3.8, 10.4, 5.4, 5.2). - Risk areas and recommended actions: - Ensure loan loss provisions are sufficient in credit unions and step up forbearance monitoring. - Enhance monitoring of reinsurance conditions and local market pricing in the general insurance sector. - Authorities are encouraged to maintain recent momentum in strengthening the AML/CFT framework. ### Structural reforms, competitiveness, and resilience - Need to strengthen domestic foundations of growth: - Facilitate local investment and business development. - Enhance locally offered tourism services and intersectoral linkages. - Reduce goods trade frictions. - Strengthen human capital and productivity. - Infrastructure and resilience: - Infrastructure project decisions should pay close attention to disaster resilience in alignment with the updated National Adaptation plan. ### Data and institutional capacity - Data gaps and capacity constraints: - Important data deficiencies include balance of payments coverage, monitoring of large investment projects, outdated CPI weights, and missing GDP expenditure data. - Capacity constraints from persistent staffing shortages and turnover warrant prioritized attention. - Recommended institutional actions: - Improve quality of economic data and institutional capacity to support informed policymaking. - Align priorities with the ongoing public sector functional review and staff regularization process. ### Selected economic and social indicators (as reported) - Rank in UNDP Human Development Index: 73 (out of 189 countries, 2023). - Infant mortality rate per '000 births (2021): 14.4. - Adult illiteracy rate in percent (2014): 1. - Life expectancy at birth in years (2021): 75. - Poverty rate in percent of population (2019): 25. - GDP per capita in US$ (2023): 10,449. - Unemployment rate (2025 Q2): 10.8. - Population in millions (2023): 0.13. *Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Grenada, Press Release No. 26/011.* --- ## References - [Jamaica and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/JAM/index.htm) - [Grenada and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GRD/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/20/pr-26011-grenada-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation_