## IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2025 Post-Financing Assessment with Uganda _IMF News, January 23, 2026_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2025 Post-Financing Assessment with Uganda](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/23/pr-26017-uganda-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2025-post-financing-assessment) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/01/23/pr-26017-uganda-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2025-post-financing-assessment/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/01/23/pr-26017-uganda-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2025-post-financing-assessment/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/01/23/pr-26017-uganda-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2025-post-financing-assessment/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: January 23, 2026 --- ### Summary of the PFA conclusion - On January, 12, 2026 the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Post-Financing Assessment (PFA) with Uganda and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis. - The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for the PFA discussions. - Uganda’s post-pandemic economic performance has been robust, supported by broad-based growth and contained inflation. - Uganda’s capacity to repay the Fund is assessed as adequate, though subject to risks from potential portfolio outflows, commodity price shocks and further delays related to the oil project. ### Macroeconomic performance and outlook - Real GDP growth rose to 6.3 percent in FY24/25. - Non-oil real GDP: 6.0 (FY2023/24 actual) and 6.3 (FY2024/25 actual) as reported in the table. - Inflation stabilized below 4 percent; headline inflation (period average) reported as 3.2 (2023/24) and 3.5 (2024/25). - Estimated current account deficit narrowed to 6.1 percent of GDP in FY24/25, supported by strong coffee exports. - Foreign exchange reserves increased to over three months of import coverage by October 2025, partly reflecting strong portfolio inflows in 2025. - The overall budget deficit widened to 6 percent of GDP in FY24/25 from 4.7 percent in FY23/24. - Public debt reached 52.4 percent of GDP. ### Executive Board assessment and risk analysis - Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal emphasizing continued robust macroeconomic performance supported by: - Strong domestic demand, favorable external conditions, and prudent monetary policy. - Accelerated Real GDP growth to 6.3 percent in FY2024/25. - Contained inflation and a significantly narrowed current account deficit. - Increased foreign exchange reserves and improved investor sentiment. - Fiscal vulnerabilities are on the rise due to elevated overall deficits and a high debt servicing burden. - Public debt considered sustainable but faces risks from domestic financing pressures and weaknesses in the budgetary process. - Staff assesses Uganda’s capacity to repay the Fund as adequate under both baseline and downside scenarios. - Identified downside risks include: - Large portfolio outflows, - Adverse terms-of-trade shocks, - Further delays in the oil project, - Governance weaknesses. - Even in a downside scenario involving large portfolio outflows, adverse terms-of-trade shocks, and further delays in the oil project, repayment indicators would weaken but remain within adequate levels; policy buffers would come under strain. ### Staff policy recommendations - Fiscal policy: - Accelerate fiscal consolidation through durable revenue mobilization and rationalization of current spending. - Bring forward tax policy measures including rationalization of tax expenditures and strengthening and broadening the tax base. - Prioritize PFM reforms to enhance budget discipline and limit the scope for accommodating frequent in-year spending requests. - Implement adopted oil revenue frameworks to safeguard oil revenues and preserve fiscal discipline. - Monetary policy and exchange rate: - Retain a data-driven and forward-looking monetary policy approach. - As inflation risks recede, a gradual easing could support private sector credit growth. - Strengthen monetary policy transmission and promote financial deepening, particularly through FinTech-enabled lending and improvements in credit infrastructure. - Adhere to the agreed repayment schedule for BoU advances and limit BoU advances to the limits stipulated under the PFM Act to avoid fiscal dominance and protect monetary policy credibility. - Maintain exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks and preserve competitiveness. - Continue rebuilding FX reserves in a sustainable and durable manner; pilot gold purchase program offers potential support but must be carefully managed to mitigate financial and operational risks. - Financial sector: - Closely monitor rising sovereign–bank linkages. - Strengthen supervision, risk management, and the regulatory framework, especially in the context of expanding FinTech lending. ### Key statistics and projections (selected figures from Table 1) - Output, prices, and exchange rate: - Real GDP: 6.1 (2023/24 Act.), 6.3 (2024/25 Proj.), 6.2 (2025/26), 9.4 (2026/27), 6.9 (2027/28), 6.7 (2028/29), 6.4 (2029/30), 5.7 (2030/31). - GDP deflator: 5.4 (2023/24), 5.2 (2024/25), 4.3 (2025/26), 4.5 (2026/27), 4.6 (2027/28), 4.9 (2028/29), 4.7 (2029/30). - Headline inflation (period average): 3.2 (2023/24), 3.5 (2024/25), 3.3 (2025/26), 5.0 (2026/27). - Core inflation (period average): 3.0 (2023/24), 3.9 (2024/25), 4.2 (2025/26). - Terms of trade ("–" = deterioration): 8.2 (2023/24), 11.4 (2024/25), 2.4 (2025/26), 2.9 (2026/27), 2.3 (2027/28). - Money and credit: - Broad money (M3): 8.7 (2023/24), 13.3 (2024/25), 11.8 (2025/26), 14.8 (2026/27), 12.3 (2027/28), 12.0 (2028/29), 12.8 (2029/30), 11.3 (2030/31). - Credit to non-government sector: 9.7 (2023/24), 10.3 (2024/25), 8.9 (2025/26), 10.5 (2026/27), 9.1 (2027/28), 8.6 (2028/29), 9.3 (2029/30). - Bank of Uganda policy rate (percent)3: 9.8 (latest available data: BoU policy rate: November 2025). - M3/GDP (percent): 20.4 (2023/24), 20.7 (2024/25), 20.9 (2025/26), 21.0 (2026/27), 21.1 (2027/28), 21.2 (2028/29), 21.4 (2029/30), 21.5 (2030/31). - NPLs (percent of total loans)3: 3.7 (latest available data: NPLs: June 2025). - Central government budget: - Revenue and grants: 14.1 (2023/24), 14.7 (2024/25), 14.9 (2025/26), 16.0 (2026/27), 16.5 (2027/28), 16.6 (2028/29), 16.9 (2029/30), 17.0 (2030/31). - Of which: grants: 0.5 (2023/24), 0.6 (2024/25), 0.4 (2025/26), 0.3 (2026/27), 0.2 (2027/28). - Of which: oil revenue: 0.0 (2023/24), 0.1 (2024/25), 1.2 (2026/27), 1.7 (2027/28), 1.8 (2028/29), 2.1 (2029/30). - Expenditure: 18.8 (2023/24), 21.9 (2024/25), 21.6 (2025/26). - Of which: Current: 13.2 (2023/24), 15.2 (2024/25), 15.8 (2025/26), 15.5 (2026/27), 15.9 (2027/28), 16.2 (2028/29). - Of which: Capital4: 5.6 (2023/24). - Overall balance: -4.7 (2023/24), -6.0 (2024/25), -6.6 (2025/26), -5.9 (2026/27), -5.4 (2027/28), -5.0 (2028/29), -5.1 (2029/30), -4.8 (2030/31). - Of which: Net domestic borrowing: 4.1 (2023/24). - Primary balance: -1.6 (2023/24), -2.3 (2024/25), -2.0 (2025/26), -1.4 (2026/27), -0.6 (2027/28). - Public debt: - Public gross debt5: 50.6 (2023/24), 52.4 (2024/25), 54.5 (2025/26), 54.1 (2026/27), 54.3 (2027/28), 54.2 (2028/29), 54.0 (2029/30) [table shows continuation to 2030/31]. - External6: 28.1 (2023/24), 27.3 (2024/25), 25.8 (2025/26), 24.6 (2026/27), 23.6 (2027/28), 22.6 (2028/29). - Domestic: 22.5 (2023/24), 25.1 (2024/25), 27.1 (2025/26), 28.3 (2026/27), 29.7 (2027/28), 30.6 (2028/29), 31.7 (2029/30), 32.4 (2030/31). - Investment and savings: - Investment: 22.4 (2023/24), 22.8 (2024/25), 23.0 (2025/26), 23.7 (2026/27), 24.2 (2027/28), 24.5 (2028/29), 24.9 (2029/30), 25.3 (2030/31). - Public: 17.4 (2023/24), 17.8 (2024/25), 18.1 (2025/26), 18.5 (2026/27), 18.9 (2027/28), 19.2 (2028/29), 19.8 (2029/30). - Savings: 14.6 (2023/24), 16.7 (2024/25), 23.2 (2025/26), -0.9, -1.7, -0.5, 0.8 (subsequent entries as shown in table). - External sector: - Current account balance: -7.8 (2023/24), -6.1 (2024/25), -4.1 (2025/26), -3.1 (2026/27), -2.7 (2027/28), -1.5 (2028/29). - Current account balance (excluding grants): -4.3 (2023/24), -3.3 (2024/25), -2.8 (2025/26), -1.8 (2026/27). - Exports (goods and services): 18.6 (2023/24), 21.3 (2024/25), 27.4 (2025/26), 27.8 (2026/27), 26.1 (2027/28). - Imports (goods and services): 27.6 (2023/24), 28.9 (2024/25), 27.9 (2025/26), 29.2 (2026/27), 28.5 (2027/28), 25.6, 23.8 (later entries). - Gross international reserves (in billions of US$): 5.8 (2023/24), 7.5 (2024/25), 8.0 (2025/26), 9.2 (2026/27). - In months of next year's imports of goods and services: 2.2 (2023/24), 2.7 (2024/25), 3.1 (2025/26), 3.8 (2026/27), 4.4 (2027/28). - Memorandum items: - GDP at current market prices (Ush. billion): 203,708 (2023/24), 227,879 (2024/25), 252,221 (2025/26), 288,422 (2026/27), 322,457 (2027/28), 359,757 (2028/29), 401,588 (2029/30), 444,553 (2030/31). - GDP at current market prices (US$ billion): 53.9 (2023/24), 61.8 (2024/25) [table continues]. - GDP per capita (Nominal US$): 1,174 (2023/24), 1,307 (2024/25), 1,412 (2025/26), 1,502 (2026/27), 1,559 (2027/28), 1,645 (2028/29), 1,734 (2029/30), 1,812 (2030/31). - Exchange Rate (Ugandan Shilling/US$): 3,778.5 (2023/24), 3,685.4 (2024/25). - Population (million)7: 45.9 (based on preliminary figures from the 2024 census). *Source: IMF Executive Board Conclusion — Post-Financing Assessment with Uganda, Press Release No. 26/017 (January 23, 2026).* --- ## References - [Uganda and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UGA/index.htm) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [here](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2023/post-financing-assessment-pfa) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/01/23/pr-26017-uganda-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2025-post-financing-assessment_