{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Poland",
  "publication": "IMF News, February 3, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/pr-26030-poland-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with the Republic of Poland, considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.",
  "publishDate": "2026-02-03",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key messages and context",
      "content": "- Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.\n- Authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.\n- Date of press release: February 3, 2026.\n- Near-term growth supported by private consumption (strong rebound in real wages), fiscal stimulus, significant EU disbursements, and recent monetary easing.\n- Major near-term risks: fiscal vulnerabilities, declining price competitiveness, global trade developments, and regional security concerns."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Near-term outlook and projections",
      "content": "- Growth projections: 3.3 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026.\n- Over time: growth expected to moderate as EU-financed investment wanes and fiscal consolidation continues.\n- Output gap: largely closed; expected to close in 2026.\n- Current account: deficit of 1 percent of GDP in 2025.\n- Staff assesses the external position in 2025 to be broadly in line with the levels implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Inflation and monetary policy",
      "content": "- Disinflation is on track; headline and core inflation returned to the target, driven by goods.\n- Services inflation has remained elevated.\n- Inflation expectations remain well-anchored in consumer and producer surveys.\n- National Bank of Poland policy rate reductions: cumulative easing of 175 bps to 4 percent in 2025.\n- Monetary policy guidance: staff advocates a cautious, wait-and-see approach; further easing advisable only if activity and core inflation fall toward undershooting the lower end of the target range.\n- Recommendation on communication: emphasize decision-making process rather than specific rate predictions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal situation and public debt",
      "content": "- Fiscal imbalances have widened considerably; widening since 2021 solely reflects a substantial increase in expenditures.\n- 2025 fiscal metrics: fiscal deficit projected at 7 percent of GDP; public debt projected at 59 percent of GDP.\n- Poland has the second largest fiscal deficit in Europe in 2025 even though the output gap is largely closed.\n- Under current policies, public debt projected to reach 78 percent of GDP by 2031, exceeding the EU benchmark of 60 percent of GDP.\n- Staff recommends a cumulative fiscal adjustment of 4 percent of GDP to stabilize public debt.\n- Fiscal adjustment composition should reflect social preferences: either raise more revenue to sustain expanded services or return to a leaner public sector with more efficient and targeted spending.\n- Governance recommendation: establish a well-resourced and independent fiscal council to strengthen fiscal governance."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and credit conditions",
      "content": "- Banking sector: stable, well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable; non-performing loans are declining.\n- Credit recovery supported by gradual monetary easing.\n- Structural frictions constraining credit: legal risks and distortionary taxation.\n- Policy recommendations:\n  - Eliminate the bank asset tax in a fiscally neutral manner (staff welcomes recent reduction and encourages going further).\n  - Redesign the Long-Term Funding Ratio to avoid unintended consequences that would raise the cost of credit and undermine credit creation.\n  - Address legal risks around mortgage contracts through proportionate penalties and standardized templates to reduce uncertainty and improve access to credit."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms and medium-term priorities",
      "content": "- Productivity: labor productivity growth remains strong, but innovation lags.\n- Demographics: mounting demographic pressures.\n- Recommended measures:\n  - Enhance labor mobility, digital skills, and participation.\n  - Gradual increases in the retirement age.\n  - Better integration of migrant workers.\n  - Capital market reforms to improve household returns and expand firm financing.\n  - Ensure OKI and Innovate Poland initiatives avoid excessive home bias and promote broad participation.\n  - Deeper EU integration—especially in energy and capital markets—to support productivity and resilience.\n  - Continue decarbonization efforts to meet climate targets and preserve competitiveness."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic indicators (highlights from Table 1)",
      "content": "- GDP (change in percent): 2021: 6.9; 2022: 5.3; 2023: 0.2; 2024: 3.0; 2025: 3.3; 2026: 3.5; 2027: 2.7; 2028: 2.6; 2029: 2.5.\n- Output gap (percent of potential GDP): 2021: 1.0; 2022: 2.3; 2023: -0.8; 2024: -0.7; 2025: -0.3; 2026: 0.1; 2027: 0.0.\n- Headline CPI inflation (average): 2021: 5.1; 2022: 14.4; 2023: 11.4; 2024: 3.6; 2025: 3.8.\n- Headline CPI inflation (end of period): 2021: 8.6; 2022: 16.6; 2023: 6.2; 2024: 4.7.\n- CPI inflation excluding food and energy (percent): 2021: 4.1; 2022: 9.1; 2023: 10.1; 2024: 4.3; 2025: 3.1; 2026: 2.9.\n- Unemployment rate (average, according to LFS): 2021: 3.4; 2022: 2.8.\n- General government net lending/borrowing (percent of GDP): 2021: -1.7; 2022: -3.4; 2023: -5.2; 2024: -6.5; 2025: -7.0; 2026: -6.2; 2027: -5.8; 2028: -5.4; 2029: -5.0; 2030: -4.8.\n- General government cyclically-adjusted balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -2.0; 2022: -4.6; 2023: -6.1; 2024: -6.9; 2025: -5.9.\n- General government debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 53.0; 2022: 48.8; 2023: 49.5; 2024: 55.1; 2025: 59.3; 2026: 65.5; 2027: 68.7; 2028: 71.6; 2029: 73.9; 2030: 75.9; 2031: 77.7.\n- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -1.3; 2022: -2.3; 2023: 1.5; 2024: 0.3; 2025: -1.0; 2026: -1.1; 2027: -1.4; 2028: -1.6.\n- Total external debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 53.2; 2022: 53.9; 2023: 53.1; 2024: 50.3; 2025: 48.0; 2026: 49.0; 2027: 49.8; 2028: 50.2; 2029: 50.5; 2030: 50.7.\n- Nominal GDP (billion zloty, memorandum): 2021: 2661.5; 2022: 3100.8; 2023: 3415.3; 2024: 3653.4; 2025: 3892.7; 2026: 4145.1; 2027: 4371.6; 2028: 4603.5; 2029: 4840.7; 2030: 5082.6; 2031: 5336.2.\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board press release — IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Poland (February 3, 2026).\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Republic of Poland and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/Poland\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/pr-26030-poland-imf-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: February 3, 2026",
    "Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.",
    "Authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.",
    "Date of press release: February 3, 2026.",
    "Near-term growth supported by private consumption (strong rebound in real wages), fiscal stimulus, significant EU disbursements, and recent monetary easing.",
    "Major near-term risks: fiscal vulnerabilities, declining price competitiveness, global trade developments, and regional security concerns.",
    "Growth projections: 3.3 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026.",
    "Over time: growth expected to moderate as EU-financed investment wanes and fiscal consolidation continues.",
    "Output gap: largely closed; expected to close in 2026.",
    "Current account: deficit of 1 percent of GDP in 2025.",
    "Staff assesses the external position in 2025 to be broadly in line with the levels implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.",
    "Disinflation is on track; headline and core inflation returned to the target, driven by goods.",
    "Services inflation has remained elevated.",
    "Inflation expectations remain well-anchored in consumer and producer surveys.",
    "National Bank of Poland policy rate reductions: cumulative easing of 175 bps to 4 percent in 2025.",
    "Monetary policy guidance: staff advocates a cautious, wait-and-see approach; further easing advisable only if activity and core inflation fall toward undershooting the lower end of the target range.",
    "Recommendation on communication: emphasize decision-making process rather than specific rate predictions.",
    "Fiscal imbalances have widened considerably; widening since 2021 solely reflects a substantial increase in expenditures.",
    "2025 fiscal metrics: fiscal deficit projected at 7 percent of GDP; public debt projected at 59 percent of GDP.",
    "Poland has the second largest fiscal deficit in Europe in 2025 even though the output gap is largely closed.",
    "Under current policies, public debt projected to reach 78 percent of GDP by 2031, exceeding the EU benchmark of 60 percent of GDP.",
    "Staff recommends a cumulative fiscal adjustment of 4 percent of GDP to stabilize public debt.",
    "Fiscal adjustment composition should reflect social preferences: either raise more revenue to sustain expanded services or return to a leaner public sector with more efficient and targeted spending.",
    "Governance recommendation: establish a well-resourced and independent fiscal council to strengthen fiscal governance.",
    "Banking sector: stable, well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable; non-performing loans are declining.",
    "Credit recovery supported by gradual monetary easing.",
    "Structural frictions constraining credit: legal risks and distortionary taxation.",
    "Policy recommendations:",
    "Productivity: labor productivity growth remains strong, but innovation lags.",
    "Demographics: mounting demographic pressures.",
    "Recommended measures:",
    "GDP (change in percent): 2021: 6.9; 2022: 5.3; 2023: 0.2; 2024: 3.0; 2025: 3.3; 2026: 3.5; 2027: 2.7; 2028: 2.6; 2029: 2.5.",
    "Output gap (percent of potential GDP): 2021: 1.0; 2022: 2.3; 2023: -0.8; 2024: -0.7; 2025: -0.3; 2026: 0.1; 2027: 0.0.",
    "Headline CPI inflation (average): 2021: 5.1; 2022: 14.4; 2023: 11.4; 2024: 3.6; 2025: 3.8.",
    "Headline CPI inflation (end of period): 2021: 8.6; 2022: 16.6; 2023: 6.2; 2024: 4.7.",
    "CPI inflation excluding food and energy (percent): 2021: 4.1; 2022: 9.1; 2023: 10.1; 2024: 4.3; 2025: 3.1; 2026: 2.9.",
    "Unemployment rate (average, according to LFS): 2021: 3.4; 2022: 2.8.",
    "General government net lending/borrowing (percent of GDP): 2021: -1.7; 2022: -3.4; 2023: -5.2; 2024: -6.5; 2025: -7.0; 2026: -6.2; 2027: -5.8; 2028: -5.4; 2029: -5.0; 2030: -4.8.",
    "General government cyclically-adjusted balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -2.0; 2022: -4.6; 2023: -6.1; 2024: -6.9; 2025: -5.9.",
    "General government debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 53.0; 2022: 48.8; 2023: 49.5; 2024: 55.1; 2025: 59.3; 2026: 65.5; 2027: 68.7; 2028: 71.6; 2029: 73.9; 2030: 75.9; 2031: 77.7.",
    "Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -1.3; 2022: -2.3; 2023: 1.5; 2024: 0.3; 2025: -1.0; 2026: -1.1; 2027: -1.4; 2028: -1.6.",
    "Total external debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 53.2; 2022: 53.9; 2023: 53.1; 2024: 50.3; 2025: 48.0; 2026: 49.0; 2027: 49.8; 2028: 50.2; 2029: 50.5; 2030: 50.7.",
    "Nominal GDP (billion zloty, memorandum): 2021: 2661.5; 2022: 3100.8; 2023: 3415.3; 2024: 3653.4; 2025: 3892.7; 2026: 4145.1; 2027: 4371.6; 2028: 4603.5; 2029: 4840.7; 2030: 5082.6; 2031: 5336.2.",
    "[Republic of Poland and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/POL/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/Poland](http://www.imf.org/Poland)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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