{ "title": "From Resilience to Renewal: A Fiscal Vision For the Next Decade", "publication": "IMF News, February 2, 2026", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae/index.md", "summary": "Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the Tenth Annual Arab Fiscal Forum, Dubai, UAE", "publishDate": "2026-02-02", "sections": [ { "heading": "Context and opening", "content": "- Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the Tenth Annual Arab Fiscal Forum, Dubai, UAE, February 2, 2026.\n- Forum marks the tenth anniversary of the Arab Fiscal Forum; expanded participation includes Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors from multiple Arab countries.\n- Core focus: strengthening fiscal institutions for macroeconomic resilience, efficient public expenditure management, and digital transformation to support diversification and recovery." }, { "heading": "Global and regional outlook (key statistics)", "content": "- World economy projected growth: 3.3 percent this year and 3.2 percent next year.\n- Inflation projections: 3.8 percent this year and 3.4 percent by 2027.\n- Arab region growth: expected to rise to 3.7 percent this year.\n- Fiscal target noted from IMF analysis: a tax-to-GDP ratio of at least 15 percent to support strong institutions, deeper financial markets and sustained growth." }, { "heading": "Main risks highlighted", "content": "- Geopolitical tensions increasing uncertainty.\n- Trade tensions and protectionism dent prospects for investment and growth.\n- AI-driven productivity gains may prove overly optimistic.\n- Large and rising debts in many countries projected to reach unprecedented levels in the coming years.\n- Fiscal strains in advanced economies could raise global borrowing costs.\n- Continued long-running conflicts with risk of escalation; humanitarian needs remain immense in fragile and post-conflict countries as well as those still at war.\n- Oil price volatility: prices may weaken if global demand softens amid trade tensions and geoeconomic fragmentation; unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances." }, { "heading": "Structural challenges across the region", "content": "- Oil exporters:\n - Challenge of managing oil-price volatility while advancing economic diversification.\n- Oil importers:\n - Significant debt vulnerabilities and exposure to global financing conditions.\n - Need for fiscal buffers and credible medium-term fiscal frameworks.\n- Low-income and fragile economies:\n - Face conflict, displacement, and food insecurity.\n - Urgent need to establish macroeconomic stability and access to external financing, including international support and debt relief." }, { "heading": "Progress over the past decade (three key areas)", "content": "- Fiscal frameworks:\n - Saudi Arabia now integrates multiyear projections into its annual budgets and aligns spending ceilings with realistic forecasts.\n - Kuwait and the UAE have enhanced fiscal transparency through improved disclosure of spending ceilings and fiscal-risk statements.\n - Many other countries have strengthened oversight to manage fiscal risks.\n- Domestic revenue mobilization:\n - GCC introduction of VAT and excise taxes, together with adoption of the global minimum corporate income tax.\n - Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco have raised revenues through tax-base broadening reforms, stronger tax administrations, and greater use of digitalization.\n- Expenditure reforms:\n - Several countries—including Bahrain and Oman—are scaling back regressive energy subsidies, freeing resources to support vulnerable households." }, { "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations", "content": "- Strengthen fiscal credibility and rebuild fiscal buffers:\n - Reduce vulnerability to shocks, particularly in highly indebted countries where minor changes in investor sentiment can have outsized effects.\n - Fiscal consolidation will be necessary in some countries; in low-income countries, the path will require raising more revenue.\n- Spend smarter to support growth:\n - Make public spending more efficient and direct resources to facilitate diversification, development, and reconstruction.\n - Ensure public resources are used agilely and efficiently under tight fiscal constraints.\n- Renew momentum on productivity-enhancing reforms:\n - Foster a stronger climate for entrepreneurship by lowering barriers to entry, ensuring fair competition, and improving the business environment.\n - Promote greater openness to FDI and global expertise to unlock productivity gains from emerging technologies, including AI, accelerate digital transformation, and enhance competitiveness.\n - Deepen trade integration to diversify export markets, improve connectivity, and capture opportunities from shifting global supply chains.\n- Support for countries emerging from conflict:\n - Prioritize careful sequencing, sustained international support, and significant resources to rebuild institutions and finance reconstruction.\n- IMF engagement:\n - IMF stands ready to support the region with integrated policy advice, financing, and capacity development.\n - Ongoing collaboration through Fiscal Affairs Department and CD hubs—METAC in Lebanon, the CEF in Kuwait, and the regional office in Riyadh.\n\nSource: Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the Tenth Annual Arab Fiscal Forum, Dubai, UAE, February 2, 2026.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: February 2, 2026", "Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the Tenth Annual Arab Fiscal Forum, Dubai, UAE, February 2, 2026.", "Forum marks the tenth anniversary of the Arab Fiscal Forum; expanded participation includes Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors from multiple Arab countries.", "Core focus: strengthening fiscal institutions for macroeconomic resilience, efficient public expenditure management, and digital transformation to support diversification and recovery.", "World economy projected growth: 3.3 percent this year and 3.2 percent next year.", "Inflation projections: 3.8 percent this year and 3.4 percent by 2027.", "Arab region growth: expected to rise to 3.7 percent this year.", "Fiscal target noted from IMF analysis: a tax-to-GDP ratio of at least 15 percent to support strong institutions, deeper financial markets and sustained growth.", "Geopolitical tensions increasing uncertainty.", "Trade tensions and protectionism dent prospects for investment and growth.", "AI-driven productivity gains may prove overly optimistic.", "Large and rising debts in many countries projected to reach unprecedented levels in the coming years.", "Fiscal strains in advanced economies could raise global borrowing costs.", "Continued long-running conflicts with risk of escalation; humanitarian needs remain immense in fragile and post-conflict countries as well as those still at war.", "Oil price volatility: prices may weaken if global demand softens amid trade tensions and geoeconomic fragmentation; unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances.", "Oil exporters:", "Oil importers:", "Low-income and fragile economies:", "Fiscal frameworks:", "Domestic revenue mobilization:", "Expenditure reforms:", "Strengthen fiscal credibility and rebuild fiscal buffers:", "Spend smarter to support growth:", "Renew momentum on productivity-enhancing reforms:", "Support for countries emerging from conflict:", "IMF engagement:", "[https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva](https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2026/02/02/sp020226-md-speech-tenth-annual-arab-fiscal-forum-dubai-uae/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:25:26.241Z" }