February 16, 2026
PRESS OFFICER: Tatiana Mossot
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
Washington, D.C.: A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Niko Hobdari, Mission Chief for Guinea-Bissau, held discussions in Bissau during February 3–13 2026 on macroeconomic policies in the context of the Ninth and Tenth Reviews of the ECF arrangement [[1]]. This staff-level agreement is contingent on the implementation of the agreed prior actions and is subject to IMF Management approval and Executive Board consideration. The initial arrangement was approved by the IMF Executive Board for a total amount of SDR 28.4 million (about US$37.3 million) on January 30, 2023. The IMF Executive Board granted an augmentation of access (to 140 percent of quota or SDR 39.76 million) on November 29, 2023.
At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Hobdari issued the following statement:
“I am pleased to announce that we have reached a staff-level agreement with the Guinea-Bissau authorities on economic and financial policies that could support the approval of the Ninth and Tenth Reviews of the ECF program. Conclusion of the Reviews by the IMF Executive Board would enable the disbursement of SDR 2.36 million (about US$3.3 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 37.4 million (about US$51.6 million).
“Economic growth in 2025 is estimated at 5.5 percent, supported by strong cashew production and favorable terms-of-trade developments. Average inflation declined to 0.9 percent, reflecting lower food prices. The fiscal deficit was larger than anticipated, reflecting weaker revenue performance, elevated interest expenditures, and lower‑than‑expected external budget support. While public debt is estimated to have declined to 74.3 percent of GDP, sustained fiscal consolidation and prudent borrowing policies are key to maintaining public debt on a firm declining path over the medium term.
“Following the staff-level agreement reached in October 2025 for the Ninth Review, program implementation faced delays after the change in government in November 2025. These developments, together with tighter regional financial conditions, have increased financing constraints and weighed on program performance. Despite these headwinds, the transitional authorities expressed a strong commitment to the objectives of the ECF-supported program and have taken steps to strengthen fiscal discipline, including tightening expenditure controls and maintaining a zero ceiling on other common expenditures in recent months. They have already taken several corrective measures agreed during the ninth ECF review mission in October and have been implementing additional revenue and spending measures as prior actions of the combined ninth and tenth reviews. Agreement was also reached to extend the ECF-supported program by five months to December 29, 2026. This extension is intended to anchor economic policies and to support the implementation of the 2026 budget throughout the year, which is key to maintaining debt sustainability.
“Looking ahead, the outlook remains subject to significant downside risks, including adverse weather conditions, negative terms-of-trade and political shocks, and tighter financing conditions. Against the backdrop of significant financing needs in the first quarter of 2026, the authorities’ commitment to curtail non‑priority spending until cashew-related revenue starts flowing in and to adopt proactive cash‑management practices will help alleviate financing pressures.
“The IMF staff thanks the authorities for their cooperation and constructive policy dialogue.”
The IMF team met with transitional Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Té, BCEAO National Director Cassama, and other senior government officials. The team also met with representatives of public sector enterprises as well as key bilateral and international partners.
Key link:
[1] The Extended Credit Facility (ECF) provides financial assistance to countries with protracted balance of payments problems. It supports countries’ economic programs aimed at moving toward a stable and sustainable macroeconomic position consistent with strong and durable poverty reduction and growth. The ECF may also help catalyze additional foreign aid.
