{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Belgium",
  "publication": "IMF News, February 23, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/19/pr26057-belgium-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Belgium. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.",
  "publishDate": "2026-02-23",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Main findings and near-term outlook",
      "content": "- Economic activity remained solid amid shocks and heightened uncertainty.\n- Growth decelerated to 1.1 percent in 2024 and is expected at 1.1 percent in 2025.\n- Growth is expected to slow in 2026 but return to its 1.3 percent potential in the medium term.\n- Headline inflation eased to 2.2 percent y/y at end 2025; services price inflation has been slower to recede.\n- Labor market performance remains strong but shows signs of softening; deterioration in labor-cost-competitiveness has halted.\n- Lower energy costs and slower wage growth should help inflation stabilize around the 2 percent target.\n- The external current account deficit is projected to narrow gradually as external demand recovers over the medium term.\n- Downside risks: weaker external demand, geopolitical and trade tensions, prolonged uncertainty."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and vulnerabilities",
      "content": "- Important risks that could worsen the outlook:\n  - Global and trade uncertainties, higher tariffs, or tighter financial conditions could lower growth.\n  - Supply-chain disruptions could raise inflation.\n  - Implementation challenges could hinder reforms and fiscal consolidation.\n  - Risk premia could rise more than expected, and debt dynamics worsen.\n- Structural fiscal deficits, rising public debt, deteriorated price-competitiveness, and a weaker external position are persistent scars."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal assessment and recommendations",
      "content": "- Further fiscal consolidation is needed to lower deficits and debt vulnerabilities and restore external balances.\n- Directors noted measures in the 2026 fiscal budget and under the EU economic governance framework but considered additional fiscal adjustment necessary to stabilize public debt and place it on a firm downward path.\n- Recommended fiscal priorities:\n  - Prioritize further reductions in current spending.\n  - Increase the efficiency of public investment and social spending.\n  - Streamline tax expenditures.\n  - Ensure regions and communities contribute to fiscal adjustment.\n  - Preserve growth-enhancing investment.\n  - Effective implementation of pension reform is critical.\n  - Strengthen coordination across federal, regional and community governments for durable multi-year consolidation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms and competitiveness",
      "content": "- Continued domestic structural reforms and efforts with EU partners are vital to:\n  - Boost employment despite aging.\n  - Raise productivity and competitiveness.\n  - Soften the impact of fiscal consolidation.\n- Specific recommendations:\n  - Further amend employment protection legislation.\n  - Strengthen active labor market policies.\n  - Revisit the wage-setting mechanism to better align wage growth with productivity.\n  - Deepen the EU single market, advance the savings and investment union, and integrate the energy market."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and macroprudential policy",
      "content": "- The financial sector remains resilient, though pockets of vulnerability warrant continued close monitoring.\n- Macroprudential policy guidance:\n  - Continue to focus on maintaining sufficient buffers.\n  - A further increase in the counter-cyclical capital buffer would be needed if overall risks do not abate.\n- Encourage continued progress in implementing the 2023 FSAP recommendations—including those that require legislative action—and further strengthening the AML/CFT framework."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board Assessment (summary of Directors’ views)",
      "content": "- Directors welcomed Belgium’s resilience amid successive shocks.\n- Emphasized that sustained fiscal consolidation combined with well-sequenced, deeper structural reforms is essential to reduce vulnerabilities, strengthen fiscal and external balances, and safeguard the sustainability of Belgium’s social model.\n- Welcomed progress in tax, pension, labor market and healthcare reforms but stressed steadfast implementation and additional efforts to boost potential growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected quantitative indicators (as presented in Table 1)",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth:\n  - 2023: 1.7\n  - 2024: 1.1\n  - 2025: 1.0\n  - 2026: 1.2\n  - 2027: 1.3\n- Domestic demand:\n  - 2023: 1.5\n  - 2024: 1.4\n  - 2025: 1.6\n- Private consumption:\n  - 2023: 2.0\n- Public consumption:\n  - 2023: 2.7\n  - 2025: 1.8\n  - 2026: 2.4\n- Gross fixed investment:\n  - 2023: 3.1\n  - 2024: 0.1\n  - 2025: 0.9\n  - 2026: 1.9\n- Stockbuilding (contribution to GDP growth):\n  - 2023: -0.4\n  - 2024: -0.5\n  - 2025: -0.3\n  - 2026: 0.0\n- Exports, goods and services:\n  - 2023: -7.2\n  - 2024: -1.7\n  - 2025: 2.3\n  - 2026: 2.8\n- Imports, goods and services:\n  - 2023: -7.6\n  - 2024: -1.3\n  - 2025: 2.5\n  - 2026: 3.3\n- Household saving ratio:\n  - 2023: 14.1\n  - 2024: 12.9\n  - 2025: 11.5\n  - 2026: 11.4\n  - 2027: 11.6\n  - 2028: 11.8\n  - 2029: 12.0\n- Unemployment rate (in percent):\n  - 2023: 5.5\n  - 2024: 5.7\n  - 2025: 6.1\n  - 2026: 6.2\n  - 2027: 6.0\n  - 2028: 5.9\n  - 2029: 5.8\n- Employment growth:\n  - 2023: 0.3\n  - 2024: 0.5\n  - 2025: 0.4\n- Consumer prices (HICP):\n  - 2023: 4.3\n  - 2024: 2.1\n- Core CPI (HICP):\n  - 2023: 3.4\n  - 2024: 2.2\n- Public finance (percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue 2023–2027: 48.8; 49.7; 49.8; 50.0; 50.3\n  - Expenditure 2023–2031: 52.8; 54.1; 55.0; 54.8; 54.9; 55.1; 55.4; 55.8; 55.9\n  - General government balance 2023–2029: -4.0; -4.4; -5.2; -5.0; -5.1; -5.5; -5.6; -5.6; -5.6\n  - Structural balance 2023–2028: -4.3; -4.5; -5.3; -4.8; -4.9\n  - Structural balance (excl. Covid measures): -4.2\n  - Structural primary balance 2023–2028: -2.3; -3.0; -2.4; -2.1; -2.0; -2.2\n  - Primary balance 2023–2024: -2.9; -2.5\n  - General government debt 2023–2031: 102.4; 103.9; 107.2; 109.7; 112.1; 114.4; 116.6; 119.1; 121.4\n- External balances:\n  - Goods and services balance 2023–2025: -1.1; -0.9; -0.7\n  - Current account 2023–2025: -1.5; -1.0\n- NEER, ULC-styled (2005=100):\n  - 2023: 97.6\n  - 2024: 97.8\n- REER, ULC-based (2005=100):\n  - 2023: 103.4\n  - 2024: 102.1\n- Gross national savings (in percent of GDP) 2023–2031:\n  - 2023: 25.5\n  - 2024: 24.1\n  - 2025: 22.6\n  - 2026: 23.0\n  - 2027: 22.9\n  - 2028: 23.2\n  - 2029: 23.4\n  - 2030: 23.5\n  - 2031: 23.8\n- Gross national investment (in percent of GDP) 2023–2026:\n  - 2023: 25.3\n  - 2024: 24.5\n  - 2025: 24.0\n  - 2026: 23.9\n- Nominal GDP (in billions of euros) 2023–2031:\n  - 2023: 602.4\n  - 2024: 620.3\n  - 2025: 636.3\n  - 2026: 653.9\n  - 2027: 671.9\n  - 2028: 691.6\n  - 2029: 712.0\n  - 2030: 733.1\n  - 2031: 755.6\n- Population (in millions):\n  - 2023: 11.7\n  - 2024: 11.9\n  - 2025: 12.1\n\nPress Release No. 26/057 — February 23, 2026. IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Belgium and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/19/pr26057-belgium-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation"
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    "Published: February 23, 2026",
    "Economic activity remained solid amid shocks and heightened uncertainty.",
    "Growth decelerated to 1.1 percent in 2024 and is expected at 1.1 percent in 2025.",
    "Growth is expected to slow in 2026 but return to its 1.3 percent potential in the medium term.",
    "Headline inflation eased to 2.2 percent y/y at end 2025; services price inflation has been slower to recede.",
    "Labor market performance remains strong but shows signs of softening; deterioration in labor-cost-competitiveness has halted.",
    "Lower energy costs and slower wage growth should help inflation stabilize around the 2 percent target.",
    "The external current account deficit is projected to narrow gradually as external demand recovers over the medium term.",
    "Downside risks: weaker external demand, geopolitical and trade tensions, prolonged uncertainty.",
    "Important risks that could worsen the outlook:",
    "Structural fiscal deficits, rising public debt, deteriorated price-competitiveness, and a weaker external position are persistent scars.",
    "Further fiscal consolidation is needed to lower deficits and debt vulnerabilities and restore external balances.",
    "Directors noted measures in the 2026 fiscal budget and under the EU economic governance framework but considered additional fiscal adjustment necessary to stabilize public debt and place it on a firm downward path.",
    "Recommended fiscal priorities:",
    "Continued domestic structural reforms and efforts with EU partners are vital to:",
    "Specific recommendations:",
    "The financial sector remains resilient, though pockets of vulnerability warrant continued close monitoring.",
    "Macroprudential policy guidance:",
    "Encourage continued progress in implementing the 2023 FSAP recommendations—including those that require legislative action—and further strengthening the AML/CFT framework.",
    "Directors welcomed Belgium’s resilience amid successive shocks.",
    "Emphasized that sustained fiscal consolidation combined with well-sequenced, deeper structural reforms is essential to reduce vulnerabilities, strengthen fiscal and external balances, and safeguard the sustainability of Belgium’s social model.",
    "Welcomed progress in tax, pension, labor market and healthcare reforms but stressed steadfast implementation and additional efforts to boost potential growth.",
    "Real GDP growth:",
    "Domestic demand:",
    "Private consumption:",
    "Public consumption:",
    "Gross fixed investment:",
    "Stockbuilding (contribution to GDP growth):",
    "Exports, goods and services:",
    "Imports, goods and services:",
    "Household saving ratio:",
    "Unemployment rate (in percent):",
    "Employment growth:",
    "Consumer prices (HICP):",
    "Core CPI (HICP):",
    "Public finance (percent of GDP):",
    "External balances:",
    "NEER, ULC-styled (2005=100):",
    "REER, ULC-based (2005=100):",
    "Gross national savings (in percent of GDP) 2023–2031:",
    "Gross national investment (in percent of GDP) 2023–2026:",
    "Nominal GDP (in billions of euros) 2023–2031:",
    "Population (in millions):",
    "[Belgium and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/BEL/index.htm)",
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    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
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    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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