## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Belgium

_IMF News, February 23, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: February 23, 2026

---

### Main findings and near-term outlook
- Economic activity remained solid amid shocks and heightened uncertainty.
- Growth decelerated to 1.1 percent in 2024 and is expected at 1.1 percent in 2025.
- Growth is expected to slow in 2026 but return to its 1.3 percent potential in the medium term.
- Headline inflation eased to 2.2 percent y/y at end 2025; services price inflation has been slower to recede.
- Labor market performance remains strong but shows signs of softening; deterioration in labor-cost-competitiveness has halted.
- Lower energy costs and slower wage growth should help inflation stabilize around the 2 percent target.
- The external current account deficit is projected to narrow gradually as external demand recovers over the medium term.
- Downside risks: weaker external demand, geopolitical and trade tensions, prolonged uncertainty.

### Risks and vulnerabilities
- Important risks that could worsen the outlook:
  - Global and trade uncertainties, higher tariffs, or tighter financial conditions could lower growth.
  - Supply-chain disruptions could raise inflation.
  - Implementation challenges could hinder reforms and fiscal consolidation.
  - Risk premia could rise more than expected, and debt dynamics worsen.
- Structural fiscal deficits, rising public debt, deteriorated price-competitiveness, and a weaker external position are persistent scars.

### Fiscal assessment and recommendations
- Further fiscal consolidation is needed to lower deficits and debt vulnerabilities and restore external balances.
- Directors noted measures in the 2026 fiscal budget and under the EU economic governance framework but considered additional fiscal adjustment necessary to stabilize public debt and place it on a firm downward path.
- Recommended fiscal priorities:
  - Prioritize further reductions in current spending.
  - Increase the efficiency of public investment and social spending.
  - Streamline tax expenditures.
  - Ensure regions and communities contribute to fiscal adjustment.
  - Preserve growth-enhancing investment.
  - Effective implementation of pension reform is critical.
  - Strengthen coordination across federal, regional and community governments for durable multi-year consolidation.

### Structural reforms and competitiveness
- Continued domestic structural reforms and efforts with EU partners are vital to:
  - Boost employment despite aging.
  - Raise productivity and competitiveness.
  - Soften the impact of fiscal consolidation.
- Specific recommendations:
  - Further amend employment protection legislation.
  - Strengthen active labor market policies.
  - Revisit the wage-setting mechanism to better align wage growth with productivity.
  - Deepen the EU single market, advance the savings and investment union, and integrate the energy market.

### Financial sector and macroprudential policy
- The financial sector remains resilient, though pockets of vulnerability warrant continued close monitoring.
- Macroprudential policy guidance:
  - Continue to focus on maintaining sufficient buffers.
  - A further increase in the counter-cyclical capital buffer would be needed if overall risks do not abate.
- Encourage continued progress in implementing the 2023 FSAP recommendations—including those that require legislative action—and further strengthening the AML/CFT framework.

### Executive Board Assessment (summary of Directors’ views)
- Directors welcomed Belgium’s resilience amid successive shocks.
- Emphasized that sustained fiscal consolidation combined with well-sequenced, deeper structural reforms is essential to reduce vulnerabilities, strengthen fiscal and external balances, and safeguard the sustainability of Belgium’s social model.
- Welcomed progress in tax, pension, labor market and healthcare reforms but stressed steadfast implementation and additional efforts to boost potential growth.

### Selected quantitative indicators (as presented in Table 1)
- Real GDP growth:
  - 2023: 1.7
  - 2024: 1.1
  - 2025: 1.0
  - 2026: 1.2
  - 2027: 1.3
- Domestic demand:
  - 2023: 1.5
  - 2024: 1.4
  - 2025: 1.6
- Private consumption:
  - 2023: 2.0
- Public consumption:
  - 2023: 2.7
  - 2025: 1.8
  - 2026: 2.4
- Gross fixed investment:
  - 2023: 3.1
  - 2024: 0.1
  - 2025: 0.9
  - 2026: 1.9
- Stockbuilding (contribution to GDP growth):
  - 2023: -0.4
  - 2024: -0.5
  - 2025: -0.3
  - 2026: 0.0
- Exports, goods and services:
  - 2023: -7.2
  - 2024: -1.7
  - 2025: 2.3
  - 2026: 2.8
- Imports, goods and services:
  - 2023: -7.6
  - 2024: -1.3
  - 2025: 2.5
  - 2026: 3.3
- Household saving ratio:
  - 2023: 14.1
  - 2024: 12.9
  - 2025: 11.5
  - 2026: 11.4
  - 2027: 11.6
  - 2028: 11.8
  - 2029: 12.0
- Unemployment rate (in percent):
  - 2023: 5.5
  - 2024: 5.7
  - 2025: 6.1
  - 2026: 6.2
  - 2027: 6.0
  - 2028: 5.9
  - 2029: 5.8
- Employment growth:
  - 2023: 0.3
  - 2024: 0.5
  - 2025: 0.4
- Consumer prices (HICP):
  - 2023: 4.3
  - 2024: 2.1
- Core CPI (HICP):
  - 2023: 3.4
  - 2024: 2.2
- Public finance (percent of GDP):
  - Revenue 2023–2027: 48.8; 49.7; 49.8; 50.0; 50.3
  - Expenditure 2023–2031: 52.8; 54.1; 55.0; 54.8; 54.9; 55.1; 55.4; 55.8; 55.9
  - General government balance 2023–2029: -4.0; -4.4; -5.2; -5.0; -5.1; -5.5; -5.6; -5.6; -5.6
  - Structural balance 2023–2028: -4.3; -4.5; -5.3; -4.8; -4.9
  - Structural balance (excl. Covid measures): -4.2
  - Structural primary balance 2023–2028: -2.3; -3.0; -2.4; -2.1; -2.0; -2.2
  - Primary balance 2023–2024: -2.9; -2.5
  - General government debt 2023–2031: 102.4; 103.9; 107.2; 109.7; 112.1; 114.4; 116.6; 119.1; 121.4
- External balances:
  - Goods and services balance 2023–2025: -1.1; -0.9; -0.7
  - Current account 2023–2025: -1.5; -1.0
- NEER, ULC-styled (2005=100):
  - 2023: 97.6
  - 2024: 97.8
- REER, ULC-based (2005=100):
  - 2023: 103.4
  - 2024: 102.1
- Gross national savings (in percent of GDP) 2023–2031:
  - 2023: 25.5
  - 2024: 24.1
  - 2025: 22.6
  - 2026: 23.0
  - 2027: 22.9
  - 2028: 23.2
  - 2029: 23.4
  - 2030: 23.5
  - 2031: 23.8
- Gross national investment (in percent of GDP) 2023–2026:
  - 2023: 25.3
  - 2024: 24.5
  - 2025: 24.0
  - 2026: 23.9
- Nominal GDP (in billions of euros) 2023–2031:
  - 2023: 602.4
  - 2024: 620.3
  - 2025: 636.3
  - 2026: 653.9
  - 2027: 671.9
  - 2028: 691.6
  - 2029: 712.0
  - 2030: 733.1
  - 2031: 755.6
- Population (in millions):
  - 2023: 11.7
  - 2024: 11.9
  - 2025: 12.1

*Press Release No. 26/057 — February 23, 2026. IMF Communications Department.*

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## References

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/19/pr26057-belgium-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation_