## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Moldova

_IMF News, February 27, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: February 27, 2026

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### Macroeconomic outlook and recovery
- Moldova’s recovery is underway with growth projected at 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.3 percent in 2026, supported by a good harvest, strong domestic demand, and substantial EU financing.
- Household consumption and investment are benefiting from robust wage and credit growth; industrial production expanded strongly, partly driven by food processing.
- Weak exports are weighing on growth and widening the current account.
- Inflation is expected to return to the National Bank of Moldova’s target range of 5 +/- 1.5 percent in 2026; heightened uncertainty calls for a cautious, state‑contingent monetary strategy, with future rate changes conditional on the path of inflation and growth.
- The medium-term outlook: moderate growth as higher investment and productivity-enhancing reforms boost potential output while labor remains a drag.
- Key downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation include the war in Ukraine, other geopolitical developments, and delays or misallocation of EU Growth Plan implementation and related funding.

### Fiscal policy and public finances
- The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2026 with a substantial scale-up of capital spending and some increase in current spending; adoption of planned tax reforms should help mitigate pressures.
- Executive Directors agreed that a temporarily higher fiscal deficit is appropriate to support the transition to investment‑led growth.
- Emphasis on enhancing capital spending execution, public financial management, and mobilizing revenue as concessional financing declines.
- Support for planned public wage reform, with costs to be covered by additional domestic revenues.
- Support for simplifying taxes and removing exemptions, particularly on VAT.

### Monetary policy, reserves, and financial sector
- Directors recognized the National Bank of Moldova’s timely response to rising inflation after the energy shock in early 2025.
- Monetary policy should remain cautious and state‑contingent; reserve requirements on bank deposits, currently high, were recommended to be reduced after inflation risks subside.
- Encouragement to further strengthen central bank independence and governance to safeguard credibility.
- Maintaining exchange rate flexibility while preserving sufficient foreign exchange buffers is important to absorb shocks.
- Banking sector is sound, but strong credit growth and surging house prices call for close monitoring; strengthening borrower‑based measures would help contain risks.
- Financial sector reforms should address remaining gaps in supervision, crisis management, and AML/CFT frameworks, in line with FSAP recommendations.

### Structural reforms, EU accession, and energy preparedness
- EU accession and the EU Growth Plan provide an important opportunity to tackle long‑standing challenges (high emigration, low competitiveness, limited institutional capacity), achieve higher growth, and improve living standards.
- Ambitious structural reforms are needed to address structural problems, boost productivity, and unlock growth: governance and anti‑corruption reforms, labor market participation measures, addressing skills mismatches, improving infrastructure and the investment environment.
- Efforts to enhance energy preparedness and security should continue given vulnerability to electricity supply shocks and price volatility.
- Timely and effective implementation of the EU Growth Plan and actions linked to EU accession are central to supporting reforms.
- Directors highlighted that continued IMF engagement would reinvigorate reform momentum and support EU accession; next Article IV consultation expected on the standard 12‑month cycle.

### Executive Board assessment and recommendations (summarized)
- Support for temporarily higher fiscal deficit to fund investment, coupled with revenue mobilization and improved public financial management.
- Monetary policy to remain cautious and state‑contingent; reduce reserve requirements when inflation risks ease.
- Strengthen central bank independence and governance.
- Continue macroprudential measures and enhance supervision, crisis management, and AML/CFT frameworks.
- Advance governance, anti‑corruption, energy security, labor market, skills, infrastructure, and investment climate reforms.
- Ensure effective and timely implementation of EU Growth Plan funding and reforms.

### Key indicators (selected figures preserved exactly as reported)
- Real growth rate: -4.6; 1.2; 0.1; 2.7; 2.3; 3.5; 3.7; 3.6
- Domestic Demand (percent change): -2.5; -3.6; 2.9; 6.3; 4.4; 4.6; 4.2; 4.1
- Consumption (percent change): -2.4; -1.3; 1.6; 3.2; 3.4; 3.3
- Gross fixed capital formation (percent change): -10.5; 0.0; 8.0; 20.2; 10.2; 9.1; 9.2; 7.5
- Net Exports of goods and services (percent change / levels): -5.2; 18.9; -21.0; -20.6; -9.8; -8.3; -8.6; -6.6; -6.7; -7.9
- Exports of goods and services (percent change): 29.7; 4.8; -5.4; 7.9; 7.4; 8.8; 8.5; 8.6
- Imports of goods and services (percent change): 18.2; -5.1; 5.2; 10.6; 7.8; 8.2; 7.7; 8.3
- Nominal GDP (billions of Moldovan lei): 274.5; 303.6; 323.8; 354.5; 379.9; 413.6; 451.0; 491.6; 535.5; 583.0
- Output Gap (percent of potential GDP): -0.2; -0.8; -2.1; -1.1; -1.0; -0.4
- Consumer price index (average): 28.7; 13.4; 4.7; 5.0
- Consumer price index (end of period): 30.2; 7.0; 6.8; 4.9
- Average monthly wage (Moldovan lei): 10,531; 12,355; 14,095; 15,575; 16,725; 18,150; 19,725; 21,425; 23,275
- Unemployment rate (annual average, percent): 3.1; 4.0; 3.8
- Foreign saving (percent of GDP): 17.2; 11.1; 16.6; 19.3; 19.6; 19.2; 18.6; 17.5; 16.5; 16.2
- National saving (percent of GDP): 10.1; 9.0; 5.3; 5.9; 7.1; 11.9; 12.6; 8.9; 5.7; 6.4
- Gross investment (percent of GDP): 27.3; 20.1; 21.1; 24.5; 25.4; 26.4; 27.5; 28.1; 28.5; 28.8
- Current expenditure (percent of GDP): 32.8; 34.9; 36.2; 36.8; 36.6; 35.6; 35.1; 34.8; 34.7
- Capital expenditure (percent of GDP): 3.9; 4.3
- Primary balance (percent of GDP): -2.3; -4.4; -2.9; -2.7; -3.2; -3.1; -2.0; -1.7
- Overall balance (percent of GDP): -3.9; -4.8; -4.2; -3.7; -3.5
- Stock of public and publicly guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 36.3; 38.8; 36.5; 39.7; 41.2; 42.1; 42.7; 42.8; 42.9
- Broad money (M3, percent change): 18.4; 13.7; 12.1
- Reserve money (percent change): 30.3; 9.9; 0.3
- Credit to the economy (percent change): 2.8; 25.1; 26.6; 19.5
- Credit to the economy, percent of GDP: 25.5; 29.5; 32.9
- Current account balance (Millions of U.S. dollars): -2,500; -1,849; -3,013; -3,933; -4,260; -4,554; -4,811; -4,915; -5,067; -5,410
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): -17.2; -11.1; -16.6; -19.3; -19.6; -19.2; -18.6; -17.5; -16.5; -16.2
- Personal transfers and compensation of employees (net, Millions of U.S. dollars): 1,519; 1,562; 1,405; 1,345; 1,426; 1,512; 1,604; 1,693; 1,777; 1,866
- Gross official reserves (Millions of U.S. dollars): 4,474; 5,453; 5,484; 6,006; 6,222; 6,624; 6,924; 6,945; 6,895; 6,828
- Gross official reserves (months of imports): 5.5; 5.4; 5.1
- Exchange rate (Moldovan lei per USD, period average): 17.4
- Exchange rate (Moldovan lei per USD, end of period): 18.5; 16.8
- Real effective exchange rate (average, percent change): 7.2; 1.4
- External debt (percent of GDP): 66.4; 59.6; 57.5; 58.4; 62.2; 66.1; 68.9; 70.5; 69.1; 67.2
- Debt service (percent of exports of goods and services): 10.3; 12.3; 12.8; 12.2; 12.0; 10.5; 9.8

*IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Moldova, Press Release No. 26/067 (February 27, 2026).*

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## References

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