## Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, March 19, 2026

_IMF News, March 20, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: March 20, 2026

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### Announcements and logistics
- Briefing embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
- First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz travel:
  - Currently in Seoul, Republic of Korea, until March 21st.
  - Travelling to Beijing, China, from March 21st to 23rd; keynote at China Development Forum on March 22nd.
- 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group: Monday, April 13th, to Saturday, April 18th.
- Curtain Raiser: April 9th at 10 a.m.
- Media contacts: PRESS OFFICER: Fernando Puchol; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org; @IMFSpokesperson.

### Global economic impact of the Middle East conflict — IMF overview and key channels
- Immediate disruptions already observed:
  - Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off access to roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and seaborne LNG supplies.
  - Energy infrastructure in the Gulf Region and Iran damaged, disrupting oil and gas production.
  - Fertilizer shipments and transportation disrupted, raising risks of food price increases.
- Commodity prices and rule-of-thumb impact:
  - Oil and gas prices have increased by more than 50 percent over the last month to over $100 a barrel.
  - Rule of thumb cited: for every 10 percent increase in the oil price, if it were to persist throughout the rest of this year:
    - 40 basis point increase in global headline inflation.
    - Fall in global output of between 0.1 and 0.2 percent.
  - Critical caveat: these effects assume the price increase is sustained for one year.
- Inflation and second-round effects:
  - Prolonged higher energy prices will lead to higher headline inflation.
  - Key risks: second-round effects broadening inflation beyond energy and impacts on inflation expectations.
  - IMF advice to central banks: remain vigilant; monitor incoming data, second-round inflation effects, and inflation expectations.
- Financial conditions:
  - Global stock prices declined; bond yields increased across advanced and emerging markets.
  - Volatility has increased; U.S. dollar appreciated; currencies of a number of emerging economies weakened.
  - Tighter financial conditions could affect market access for countries that recently re-entered international capital markets.

### IMF analytical and reporting plans
- A comprehensive updated assessment to be provided in the World Economic Outlook in April (country-level, regional, and global).
- Scenario analysis and updated Staff Reports (e.g., U.S. Article IV update) to incorporate effects of higher oil and other commodity prices.

### IMF engagement and operational response
- Active engagement with membership: finance ministers, central bank governors, and regional institutions.
- IMF tools available: policy advice, capacity development, and financial support as needed.
- Current status of financing requests:
  - "Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing."
  - Fund stands ready to provide support and to use the full range of tools.
- Coordination and technical engagement:
  - Working toward technical-level interactions with Venezuelan economic institutions to obtain basic economic data; interactions limited to fact-finding and consistent with IMF strategy for fragile and conflict-affected states.
  - Monitoring financing assurances for programs (e.g., Ukraine) and continuing to work with partners to secure full financing packages.

### Regional and country-specific highlights and statistics

- GCC and Gulf region
  - Preliminary assessment: growth expected to weaken; fiscal and external imbalances affected.
  - Differential effects expected depending on each country's production and export capacity.
  - Most GCC countries have substantial policy buffers and have undertaken reforms to strengthen resilience.
  - Observed market effects: declines in equity markets and increasing bond spreads in GCC countries.

- Caribbean and small states
  - IMF monitoring for spillovers via energy, food, and fertilizer price increases, transportation disruptions, tourism flows, and remittances.
  - Differential impacts depending on whether countries are energy importers or exporters.

- Europe
  - Main channel of impact: higher energy prices due to energy import dependence.
  - Overall tightening of financial conditions will also affect European economies.

- Lebanon
  - Conflict compounds humanitarian crisis and Lebanon's fragile macroeconomic situation.
  - Heavy toll on tourism, agriculture, trade; physical infrastructure damage.
  - Authorities committed to continuing discussions on a comprehensive reform program and possible IMF arrangement at the authorities' request.
  - IMF team currently in Paris for talks; further discussions expected in Washington during the Spring Meetings in April.

- Egypt
  - Executive Board approved the Fifth and Sixth Reviews of Egypt's program on February 25th, and the First Review of the RSF arrangement; allowed disbursements of about U.S. $2.3 billion.
  - Disbursement breakdown as stated: $2 billion under the EFF, $200, almost $300 million under the RSF.
  - So far, impact of the conflict on Egypt has remained relatively contained.
  - Policy actions: activation of a high-level crisis management committee; exchange rate flexibility acting as shock absorber; preservation of foreign currency buffers and international reserves; targeted social spending while maintaining prudent fiscal stance.

- Argentina
  - Progress continuing on key fronts; close engagement between IMF staff and authorities.
  - Argentina now a net energy exporter: $8 billion of oil and gas last year.
  - BCRA reserve purchases since start of the year: about $3.5 billion (equivalent to about U.S. $70 million per day).
  - Treasury issuing U.S. dollar bonds in local markets with strong appetite.
  - Discussions on the Second Review and Article IV Consultation are ongoing.

- Ukraine
  - Executive Board approved a new four-year EFF arrangement totaling U.S. $8.1 billion in February, including immediate disbursement of U.S. $1.5 billion.
  - This financing forms part of a broader $136.5 billion international assistance package for Ukraine.
  - IMF mission currently in Kyiv to engage on progress and plans to meet program commitments, including fiscal, governance, and structural reforms.
  - At program approval, IMF had the necessary financing assurances; staff will continue to monitor and work with partners.

- Venezuela
  - IMF dealings with Venezuela paused since 2019 due to government recognition issues.
  - Working toward technical-level interactions with Venezuelan economic institutions to gather data; such interactions are limited to fact-finding and do not indicate a trajectory toward recognition.
  - No update on frozen funds reported.

- El Salvador
  - Positive developments: fiscal deficit coming down; economy expanding faster-than-anticipated supported by remittances and investment; security improvements; progress on structural agenda (Financial Stability Law and Fiscal Sustainability Law).
  - Discussions toward a Staff-Level Agreement for the next review are continuing; focus areas:
    - Plans to continue reducing the fiscal deficit, including pension reforms.
    - Deepening structural reforms to strengthen governance, financial deepening, and budget efficiency.
    - Strengthening transparency of Bitcoin operations and unwinding government participation in the Bitcoin project.

- Sri Lanka
  - Recent Managing Director visit noted significant progress post-Cyclone Ditwah.
  - Economic statistics: economy grew by 5 percent in 2025; inflation about 1.6 percent in February.
  - Debt restructuring nearly complete; gross international reserves increasing.
  - IMF team expected in Sri Lanka from March 26 through April 9 to complete a combined Fifth and Sixth Review and assess Middle East conflict impacts.

- Pakistan
  - Discussions underway with authorities for the next program review.
  - Team to assess impact of higher oil and fertilizer prices, tighter financial conditions, and other developments.

- Africa (Sub-Saharan Africa)
  - Region is diverse: some countries are commodity exporters, others importers; impacts will vary by country.
  - Channels of concern: higher oil and gas prices, fertilizer and food price increases, remittances and tourism effects, and tighter global financial conditions.
  - Vulnerable countries—those with limited policy buffers, high debt, and low reserves—are at greater risk and may need IMF support.

### Central bank guidance and policy considerations
- IMF advice to central banks:
  - Remain vigilant in the face of rising energy prices.
  - Monitor incoming data for second-round effects and changes in inflation expectations.
  - Carefully assess whether inflation is broadening beyond energy-driven increases.

### Additional operational notes and clarifications
- No formal requests for emergency financing received at the time of the briefing.
- IMF engagement is ongoing across a broad set of members and regions; Fund stands ready to support members using all available tools.
- Updated country- and global-level assessments to be presented in the April World Economic Outlook and in forthcoming Article IV and review documents.

*Transcript: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, March 19, 2026. Press Briefing, IMF Communications Department.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/03/20/tr-03192026-imf-regular-press-briefing-march-19-2026_