{
  "title": "Georgia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission",
  "publication": "IMF News, April 7, 2026",
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  "summary": "An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Alejandro Hajdenberg conducted discussions for the 2026 Article IV consultation with Georgia from March 25 to April 7, 2026, in Tbilisi. At the end of the visit, Mr. Hajdenberg issued the following statement:",
  "publishDate": "2026-04-07",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Mission summary and overarching assessment",
      "content": "- IMF mission led by Mr. Alejandro Hajdenberg conducted discussions from March 25 to April 7, 2026, in Tbilisi.\n- Georgia’s economic performance described as robust, supported by sound macroeconomic management and policies.\n- Outlook: becoming more challenging amid rising global uncertainty, notably from the war in the Middle East; assuming the conflict is short-lived, growth expected to remain strong but moderate.\n- Key strengths: strengthened external position, historic-high gross international reserves, disciplined fiscal policy, low public debt.\n- Main near-term focus: preserve macro-financial stability and credibility, accelerate structural reforms to sustain strong growth and job creation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Recent economic developments, outlook, and risks",
      "content": "- Growth:\n  - Real GDP growth reached 8.4 percent in January-February 2026, up from 7.5 percent in 2025.\n  - Activity drivers (supply): sustained expansion in information and communication technology (ICT), transport, and education services.\n  - Activity drivers (demand): private consumption supported by moderating but solid real wage and consumer credit growth.\n  - Projection: real GDP growth projected to ease to 5.3 percent in 2026 before converging to potential rate of around 5 percent in the medium term.\n- Inflation:\n  - Headline inflation: ended 2025 at 4 percent; stood at 4.3 percent in March 2026.\n  - Core inflation: remained below the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) 3 percent target.\n  - Projection: inflation projected to stay elevated in the first half of 2026 and converge to target by mid-2027.\n- External sector:\n  - Current account deficit narrowed to 2.6 percent of GDP in 2025.\n  - Gross international reserves rose to historic highs, exceeding the IMF’s reserve adequacy threshold for the first time since 2022.\n  - Projection: current account deficit projected to widen to 5 percent of GDP in 2026 and stabilize around this level over the medium term.\n  - Risks: exposure to volatile energy prices and tourism receipts; potential impacts from escalation in the Middle East, peace developments in Ukraine, and Azerbaijan–Armenia relations.\n- Fiscal:\n  - Fiscal deficit declined well below budget targets in 2025; public debt fell below 35 percent of GDP.\n  - 2026 budget targets a deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP, envisaging a rebound in capital spending.\n  - Outturn projected to be somewhat lower than budgeted, supported by higher-than-expected NBG dividends and strong revenue performance.\n  - Successful rollover of a $500 million Eurobond in January 2026 cited as evidence of investor confidence."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations",
      "content": "- Monetary and exchange rate policies:\n  - Monetary policy should focus on ensuring inflation returns sustainably to target.\n  - NBG has signaled readiness to tighten if inflationary pressures persist, second-round effects emerge, or inflation expectations risk becoming de‑anchored.\n  - Preserve exchange rate flexibility; limit FX interventions to smoothing episodes of excessive volatility.\n  - Continue opportunistic reserve accumulation to reinforce precautionary buffers in a highly dollarized economy.\n- NBG governance:\n  - Advance NBG governance reform to strengthen institutional safeguards.\n  - Most recommendations of the IMF’s 2022 Safeguards Assessment implemented, including eliminating possibility of discretionary transfers to the government.\n  - Continue reforms on collegial decision-making, board member qualification requirements, reallocating responsibilities among executive members, and strengthening the succession framework for the Governor.\n  - Further progress needed to fully align governance with international best practices.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Maintain a broadly neutral fiscal stance over the medium term to stabilize public debt around current level.\n  - If conflict significantly affects activity and purchasing power, provide temporary and well-targeted support to the most vulnerable within the budgetary perimeter; avoid broad‑based subsidies or tax cuts.\n  - Ensure full and timely execution of capital spending to support medium-term growth.\n  - Streamline tax expenditures; improve mining taxation; further improve tax administration; enhance spending efficiency.\n- SOE governance:\n  - Advance SOE governance reforms to improve performance and contain fiscal risks.\n  - Authorities updating action plan in line with IMF technical assistance; expand Ministry of Finance’s financial oversight over major SOEs; improve assessment and management of quasi-fiscal activities.\n  - Strengthen corporate governance and other reform areas.\n- Financial sector policies:\n  - Banking system remains well capitalized, liquid, and profitable; continued vigilance warranted.\n  - Priorities: monitor rapid consumer and variable‑rate lending, lending by real estate developers; reduce unhedged FX lending; complete bank resolution and crisis management framework; advance consolidated supervision of banks’ nonbank and cross-border activities per IMF TA recommendations.\n  - Monitor rapid growth of digital asset holdings and develop regulatory/supervisory framework for virtual asset service providers.\n- Labor market and structural reforms:\n  - Address structurally high unemployment, particularly among youth, driven by skill mismatches and weak work incentives amid low wages.\n  - Focus on vocational education and training, improving public employment services, aligning social assistance with work incentives, and supporting high-productivity sectors.\n  - Authorities’ reform agenda in education and the labor market, plus initiatives for entrepreneurship and capital-market development, noted as supportive.\n- Infrastructure and business environment:\n  - Strengthen energy, transport, and logistics infrastructure to boost competitiveness and connectivity.\n  - Accelerate infrastructure investment and deepen regional cooperation to reinforce Georgia’s role as a trade and transit hub.\n  - Strengthen anti-corruption and judicial institutions; maintain predictable, market-friendly policy environment.\n  - Undertake timely stakeholder consultation and cost-benefit analysis of policy changes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key selected economic and financial indicators (2023–31) — selected figures preserved exactly as in source",
      "content": "- Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2023: 7.8; 2024: 9.7; 2025: 7.5; 2026: 5.3; 2027: 5.0.\n- Nominal GDP (in billion of laris): 2023: 80.9; 2024: 93.0; 2025: 104.6; 2026: 115.0; 2027: 125.1; 2028: 136.0; 2029: 147.9; 2030: 160.8; 2031: 174.9.\n- Nominal GDP (in billion of U.S. dollars): 2023: 30.8; 2024: 34.2; 2025: 38.1; 2026: 42.8; 2027: 46.8; 2028: 51.2; 2029: 56.1; 2030: 61.5; 2031: 67.5.\n- GDP per capita (in thousand of U.S. dollars): 2023: 8.2; 2024: 9.3; 2025: 10.3; 2026: 11.5; 2027: 12.6; 2028: 13.9; 2029: 15.2; 2030: 16.7; 2031: 18.3.\n- CPI, period average: 2023: 2.5; 2024: 1.1; 2025: 3.9; 2026: 4.7; 2027: 3.0.\n- CPI, end-of-period: 2023: 0.4; 2024: 1.9; 2025: 4.0; 2026: 2.8.\n- Revenue and grants (in percent of GDP): 2023: 27.4; 2024: 27.6; 2025: 27.0; 2026: 26.6; 2027: 26.3; 2028: 26.1; 2029: 26.0; 2030: 25.9.\n- Total Expenditure (in percent of GDP): 2023: 29.7; 2024: 29.9; 2025: 28.4; 2026: 28.9; 2027: 28.5; 2028: 28.2; 2029: 28.1.\n- Net lending/borrowing (GFSM 2001) (in percent of GDP): 2023: -2.3; 2024: -1.5; 2025: -2.2.\n- Public debt (in percent of GDP): 2023: 38.9; 2024: 35.7; 2025: 34.4; 2026: 35.1; 2027: 34.5; 2028: 34.0; 2029: 33.3; 2030: 33.0.\n- Gross international reserves (in billions of US$): 2023: 6.2; 2024: 6.1; 2025: 6.8; 2026: 7.3; 2027: 8.1; 2028: 8.6; 2029: 9.0.\n- In percent of IMF ARA metric: 2023: 95.2; 2024: 79.3; 2025: 104.8; 2026: 100.2; 2027: 105.4; 2028: 109.5; 2029: 115.5; 2030: 118.5.\n- Current account balance (in billions of US$): 2023: -1.7; 2024: -1.8; 2025: -1.0; 2026: -2.1; 2027: -2.7; 2028: -3.1; 2029: -3.4.\n- Current account balance (in percent of GDP): 2023: -5.5; 2024: -5.3; 2025: -2.6; 2026: -5.0; 2027: -4.5; 2028: -4.7; 2029: -4.8.\n- Gross external debt (in percent of GDP): 2023: 69.7; 2024: 67.1; 2025: 60.7; 2026: 54.4; 2027: 50.0; 2028: 45.5; 2029: 40.9; 2030: 36.5; 2031: 32.5.\n- Deposit dollarization (in percent of total): 2023: 50.7; 2024: 52.7; 2025: 47.7; 2026: 47.4; 2027: 47.2; 2028: 47.0; 2029: 46.5; 2030: 46.3.\n- Credit dollarization (in percent of total): 2023: 45.2; 2024: 43.4; 2025: 42.4; 2026: 42.2; 2027: 42.0; 2028: 41.8; 2029: 41.6; 2030: 41.4; 2031: 41.2.\n\nGeorgia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission, April 7, 2026.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Press Release-English\n  - Press Release-English (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Press Release-English (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Ukraine and the IMF\n- Georgia and the IMF\n- Republic of Azerbaijan and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Mission Concluding Statements\n- PRESS CENTER\n- Article IV\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/04/07/cs-04072026-georgia-staff-cs-2026-aiv"
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    "Published: April 7, 2026",
    "IMF mission led by Mr. Alejandro Hajdenberg conducted discussions from March 25 to April 7, 2026, in Tbilisi.",
    "Georgia’s economic performance described as robust, supported by sound macroeconomic management and policies.",
    "Outlook: becoming more challenging amid rising global uncertainty, notably from the war in the Middle East; assuming the conflict is short-lived, growth expected to remain strong but moderate.",
    "Key strengths: strengthened external position, historic-high gross international reserves, disciplined fiscal policy, low public debt.",
    "Main near-term focus: preserve macro-financial stability and credibility, accelerate structural reforms to sustain strong growth and job creation.",
    "Growth:",
    "Inflation:",
    "External sector:",
    "Fiscal:",
    "Monetary and exchange rate policies:",
    "NBG governance:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "SOE governance:",
    "Financial sector policies:",
    "Labor market and structural reforms:",
    "Infrastructure and business environment:",
    "Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2023: 7.8; 2024: 9.7; 2025: 7.5; 2026: 5.3; 2027: 5.0.",
    "Nominal GDP (in billion of laris): 2023: 80.9; 2024: 93.0; 2025: 104.6; 2026: 115.0; 2027: 125.1; 2028: 136.0; 2029: 147.9; 2030: 160.8; 2031: 174.9.",
    "Nominal GDP (in billion of U.S. dollars): 2023: 30.8; 2024: 34.2; 2025: 38.1; 2026: 42.8; 2027: 46.8; 2028: 51.2; 2029: 56.1; 2030: 61.5; 2031: 67.5.",
    "GDP per capita (in thousand of U.S. dollars): 2023: 8.2; 2024: 9.3; 2025: 10.3; 2026: 11.5; 2027: 12.6; 2028: 13.9; 2029: 15.2; 2030: 16.7; 2031: 18.3.",
    "CPI, period average: 2023: 2.5; 2024: 1.1; 2025: 3.9; 2026: 4.7; 2027: 3.0.",
    "CPI, end-of-period: 2023: 0.4; 2024: 1.9; 2025: 4.0; 2026: 2.8.",
    "Revenue and grants (in percent of GDP): 2023: 27.4; 2024: 27.6; 2025: 27.0; 2026: 26.6; 2027: 26.3; 2028: 26.1; 2029: 26.0; 2030: 25.9.",
    "Total Expenditure (in percent of GDP): 2023: 29.7; 2024: 29.9; 2025: 28.4; 2026: 28.9; 2027: 28.5; 2028: 28.2; 2029: 28.1.",
    "Net lending/borrowing (GFSM 2001) (in percent of GDP): 2023: -2.3; 2024: -1.5; 2025: -2.2.",
    "Public debt (in percent of GDP): 2023: 38.9; 2024: 35.7; 2025: 34.4; 2026: 35.1; 2027: 34.5; 2028: 34.0; 2029: 33.3; 2030: 33.0.",
    "Gross international reserves (in billions of US$): 2023: 6.2; 2024: 6.1; 2025: 6.8; 2026: 7.3; 2027: 8.1; 2028: 8.6; 2029: 9.0.",
    "In percent of IMF ARA metric: 2023: 95.2; 2024: 79.3; 2025: 104.8; 2026: 100.2; 2027: 105.4; 2028: 109.5; 2029: 115.5; 2030: 118.5.",
    "Current account balance (in billions of US$): 2023: -1.7; 2024: -1.8; 2025: -1.0; 2026: -2.1; 2027: -2.7; 2028: -3.1; 2029: -3.4.",
    "Current account balance (in percent of GDP): 2023: -5.5; 2024: -5.3; 2025: -2.6; 2026: -5.0; 2027: -4.5; 2028: -4.7; 2029: -4.8.",
    "Gross external debt (in percent of GDP): 2023: 69.7; 2024: 67.1; 2025: 60.7; 2026: 54.4; 2027: 50.0; 2028: 45.5; 2029: 40.9; 2030: 36.5; 2031: 32.5.",
    "Deposit dollarization (in percent of total): 2023: 50.7; 2024: 52.7; 2025: 47.7; 2026: 47.4; 2027: 47.2; 2028: 47.0; 2029: 46.5; 2030: 46.3.",
    "Credit dollarization (in percent of total): 2023: 45.2; 2024: 43.4; 2025: 42.4; 2026: 42.2; 2027: 42.0; 2028: 41.8; 2029: 41.6; 2030: 41.4; 2031: 41.2.",
    "**Press Release-English**",
    "[Ukraine and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UKR/index.htm)",
    "[Georgia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GEO/index.htm)",
    "[Republic of Azerbaijan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/AZE/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Mission Concluding Statements](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[Article IV](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/index.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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