## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda

_IMF News, May 7, 2026_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/05/07/pr26142-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/05/07/pr26142-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/05/07/pr26142-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/05/07/pr26142-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: May 7, 2026

---

### Key findings on recent performance
- Real GDP grew by an estimated 3 percent in 2025, supported by a pick-up in construction despite slowing tourism activity.
- Employment has gradually recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
- Inflation moderated from over 6 percent (year-average) in 2024 to 1.4 percent in 2025.
- Public debt as a share of GDP declined from 101 percent of GDP in 2020 to an estimated 68 percent in 2025.
- Arrears to Paris Club creditors and domestic suppliers are significant and gross financing needs are elevated.
- The fiscal position strengthened in 2024–25, reflecting improved tax collection and one-off factors.
- The 2025 primary balance is estimated at nearly 5 percent of GDP, underpinned by:
  - higher tax revenues,
  - stronger inflows under the Citizenship-by-Investment Program (CIP),
  - restraint in current spending,
  - a modest increase in capital spending.
- Following a sharp narrowing in 2024, the current account deficit in 2025 returned to trend and is estimated around 11½ percent of GDP.
- The current account deficit was predominantly financed by foreign direct investment (FDI), and partly by CIP-related inflows.
- The overall financial system remains stable and liquid.

### Executive Board assessment and risks
- Directors welcomed continued economic expansion, construction activity, resilient tourism, and moderation of inflation.
- Directors warned of downside risks from:
  - the war in the Middle East,
  - commodity price volatility,
  - a slowdown in major trading partners,
  - domestic capacity constraints weighing on growth.
- Upside potential could arise from:
  - stronger tourism demand,
  - improved connectivity,
  - productivity-enhancing reforms.
- Directors emphasized the importance of tailored and well-sequenced Fund capacity development given the country’s capacity constraints.

### Debt, financing, and fiscal policy recommendations
- Directors noted the decline in public debt as a share of GDP but stressed that persistent arrears and elevated gross financing needs constrain access to longer‑term financing and undermine debt sustainability.
- Recommended actions to restore debt sustainability and fiscal buffers:
  - develop and implement a credible and comprehensive strategy for addressing all arrears,
  - broaden financing options,
  - make space for resilience-building investments,
  - continue strengthening cash and debt management to prevent future arrears.
- Revenue and expenditure measures encouraged:
  - further revenue mobilization to rebuild fiscal buffers and meet fiscal objectives,
  - broaden the tax base,
  - curtail exemptions,
  - restrain current expenditures,
  - strengthen the targeting of social assistance.
- Institutional and transparency measures:
  - continue efforts to strengthen fiscal institutions,
  - enhance fiscal oversight, transparency, and reporting of fiscal and public enterprise data.

### Financial sector and structural recommendations
- Directors recognized regional and national efforts to strengthen financial sector oversight, resilience, and intermediation.
- For credit unions, Directors encouraged:
  - a shift to risk‑based supervision,
  - efforts to bolster provisioning and capital positions.
- Continued priorities:
  - strengthen financial deepening,
  - enhance AML/CFT and Citizenship by Investment (CIP) frameworks.
- Connectivity and competitiveness recommendations:
  - enhance connectivity to support trade, tourism, and competitiveness,
  - streamline port and customs procedures,
  - carefully prioritize and sequence infrastructure projects,
  - address skills shortages.
- Data improvements:
  - underscored the need for improved data to support evidence-based policymaking.

### Selected economic and financial indicators (selected entries preserved exactly)
- Population (2025): 104,993
- Adult literacy rate (2015): 99
- GDP per capita (US$, 2025): 21,650
- Mean years of schooling (2022): 10.5
- Life expectancy at birth (years, 2022): 79.2
- Human Development Index rank (2024, of 193 economies): 53
- Mortality rate (under 5, per 1,000 live births, 2022): 10

- Real GDP (percent change): 2024: 2.5; 2025: 3.0; 2026: 2.6; 2027: 2.4
- Nominal GDP (percent change): 2024: 5.3; 2025: 5.1; 2026: 4.9; 2027: 4.5
- Consumer prices (period average): 2024: 6.2; 2025: 1.4; 2026: 2.1
- Primary balance (central government, percent of GDP): 2024: 4.0; 2025: 1.0
- Overall balance (central government, percent of GDP): 2024: -0.6; 2025: -1.1; 2026: -1.0; 2027: -0.9
- Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2024: 21.9; 2025: 22.4; 2026: 21.6; 2027: 21.0
- Of which: Tax revenue (percent of GDP): 2024: 16.8; 2025: 17.8; 2026: 17.3
- Total expenditure (percent of GDP): 2024: 19.3; 2025: 22.3; 2026: 22.2; 2027: 21.8

- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2024: -7.5; 2025: -11.6; 2026: -11.8; 2027: -11.3
- Trade balance (percent of GDP): 2024: -29.7; 2025: -31.8; 2026: -32.3
- Nonfactor service balance (percent of GDP): 2024: 31.3; 2025: 27.9; 2026: 27.7
- Of which: Gross tourism receipts (percent of GDP): 2024: 47.9; 2025: 45.0; 2026: 44.7

- External public sector debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 31.7; 2025: 34.2; 2026: 36.1
- Public debt stock (percent of GDP): 2020: 101 (not in table but referenced in text); table: 2024: 69.3; 2025: 68.3; 2026: 66.5; 2027: 65.2

- Net imputed international reserves (US$ million): 2021: 324; 2022: 346; 2023: 319; 2024: 318; 2025: 352; 2026: 378
- (Months of prospective imports): 2021: 2.7; 2022: 2.9

- GDP at market prices (EC$ million): 2024: 5,838; 2025: 6,137; 2026: 6,439

- Savings (percent of GDP): 2024: 25.9; 2025: 24.4
- Investment (percent of GDP): 2024: 33.4; 2025: 36.2

### Projections and outlook
- A steady economic expansion is projected to continue, but risks are tilted to the downside amid heightened global uncertainty.
- Projected Real GDP growth rates (selected):
  - 2025: 3.0
  - 2026: 2.6
  - 2027: 2.4
- Projected current account balances (percent of GDP):
  - 2025: -11.6
  - 2026: -11.8
  - 2027: -11.3

*IMF Communications Department press release, May 7, 2026.*

---


## References

- [Antigua and Barbuda and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ATG/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/countries/atg](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/atg)
- [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/05/07/pr26142-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation_