{ "title": "Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 4, 2026", "publication": "IMF News, June 4, 2026", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026/index.md", "summary": "MS. KOZACK: Hello, everyone. Good morning. Welcome to this IMF Press Briefing. It's great to see you all here in person and online.", "publishDate": "2026-06-04", "sections": [ { "heading": "Announcements and IMF leadership travel", "content": "- Managing Director travel and engagements:\n - June 9: Brussels, One Europe, One Market Summit.\n - June 11: Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings in Luxembourg; present findings of the 2026 Euro Area Annual Consultation.\n - June 12–14: Visit Andorra; meet authorities; attend ceremony celebrating Andorra's IMF membership.\n - June 15–16: Évian-les-Bains, France, G7 Leaders’ Summit.\n - June 17–18: Vienna, fireside chat with the Governor of the Central Bank of Austria for the 53rd Annual Economic Conference; sign memorandum of understanding to renew collaboration through the Joint Vienna Institute.\n - June 22: Sofia, Bulgaria, meetings with counterparts.\n- First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz:\n - June 9–12: Japan meetings and event at the University of Tokyo.\n - June 17: Fireside chat at the Atlantic Council's Geoeconomics Center on stablecoins, tokenization, and cross-border payments.\n - June 22–23: United Kingdom meetings with financial sector and Bank of England.\n- Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura:\n - June 4–5: Visit Thailand; meet Deputy Prime Minister and senior officials on medium-term policy priorities and 2026 Annual Meetings preparations.\n- Deputy Managing Director Bo Li:\n - June 10: Deliver opening remarks at IMF HQ for launch of StatGPT, the Fund's AI-powered platform for official statistics.\n - June 23: Dalian, China, speak on an energy security panel at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meetings of New Champions." }, { "heading": "U.S. macroeconomic assessment and inflation outlook", "content": "- Growth and activity:\n - Current moderate growth of around 2 percent.\n - Q1 2026 GDP expanded by 1.6 percent, reflecting rebound in government consumption after the Q4 2025 shutdown.\n - Investment is strong; large capital imports have reduced net exports.\n - Labor productivity: output per hour grew cumulatively by 2.7 percent per year over the past three years.\n - Job growth slowing due to both lower labor supply and slowing labor demand.\n- Inflation and policy implications:\n - Pass-through from higher tariffs gradually materializing into inflation.\n - Renewed headline inflation pressure from higher oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East.\n - IMF projects inflation in the U.S. will return to the 2 percent target by end 2027 (return to target was previously mid-2027).\n - Assessment: upside risks to inflation imply the Fed’s policy actions “will need to proceed with caution” and be carefully calibrated to incoming data; clear Fed communication remains essential." }, { "heading": "WTO consultations and IMF role on tariff-related balance of payments statements", "content": "- May 5 Balance of Payments Committee meeting at the WTO agreed to proceed with consultations regarding U.S. tariff notifications.\n- IMF participation:\n - IMF will participate in these WTO consultations in line with institutional responsibilities and the established framework for collaboration with the WTO.\n - IMF role: provide a statement on the member’s (U.S.) macroeconomic balance of payments position.\n - Basis: Recently concluded Article IV Consultation for the U.S. will provide a basis for that statement.\n - Timing: No precise timing available yet; IMF will share details, including on potential publication of a statement, once determined." }, { "heading": "Oil markets, inventories, and implications for inflation and growth", "content": "- Price and supply movements:\n - Oil prices increased by about 35 percent since the start of the war in the Middle East.\n - Relative to the WEO reference scenario assumptions, oil prices are now only about 3 percent higher.\n - Bulk of the increase occurred in early March when oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stopped.\n - About 14 million barrels per day of oil production have been curtailed due to damaged or shut major oil facilities.\n- Inventories and refined products:\n - Global strategic and commercial inventories stood at a five-year high of more than 8 billion barrels before the war.\n - Inventories are expected to reach a five-year low of 7.5 billion barrels in July.\n - Reserves of oil products are also low: European and Asian jet fuel prices up 35 percent from pre-war levels; gasoline prices up about 40 percent since the start of the war.\n- Modelling and forecasts:\n - IMF uses the market futures curve for oil in its forecasts (does not produce an in-house oil price path).\n - Current futures curve shows spot price higher than futures, reflecting near-term risk premium.\n - Key determinant for speed of price normalization: duration of the war and timing of the Strait of Hormuz reopening; infrastructure damage may delay full transmission of any reopening to spot markets and supply chains.\n- Policy stance:\n - Best resolution for market stability is a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but drawdowns and rerouting are already occurring.\n - IMF did not comment on specific policy measures (e.g., licensing decisions) but noted final decisions on such measures rest with respective authorities." }, { "heading": "Fiscal policy guidance, with emphasis on Africa and low-income countries", "content": "- Fiscal space concerns:\n - The oil/war shock occurs when many countries’ fiscal space is already constrained after a series of shocks.\n - IMF advice: be prudent with fiscal responses; target support to the most vulnerable households and firms if fiscal support is needed.\n- Domestic resource mobilization:\n - Key pillar of IMF advice—especially in Africa—given low revenue-to-GDP ratios in many low-income and African countries.\n - Emphasis on raising domestic revenues and developing local capital markets to mobilize homegrown savings for development needs." }, { "heading": "IMF engagement and financing actions for member countries (selected)", "content": "- Bangladesh:\n - Authorities have requested a new IMF-supported program.\n - Existing arrangements: $5.5 billion ECF, EFF, and RSF are in place (noted as existing).\n - IMF staff are discussing reform agenda and policy priorities with authorities; as discussions progress, a Staff-Level Agreement would lead to presentation to the IMF Board and cancellation of prior program.\n - Key country vulnerabilities noted: high inflation, banking sector weaknesses, low revenue mobilization.\n- The Gambia:\n - Authorities requested a 20 percent of quota augmentation and a six-month extension of the program with rephasing of access; to be presented to the Executive Board.\n- Burkina Faso:\n - Staff-Level Agreement reached on augmentation of access under the ECF of $51 million, driven partly by higher balance of payments needs due to higher fertilizer costs.\n- Ethiopia:\n - IMF to propose rephasing of disbursements to bring forward about $200 million this year to address immediate war impact.\n - Authorities have taken steps to modernize monetary and exchange rate framework (FX trading platform, eliminate surrender requirements on services exports, ease retail transaction limits); parallel market premium has reduced in recent months.\n - Fuel subsidy removal: program includes a government contribution target to the Productive Safety Net Program to protect vulnerable households; intention to expand the program to all regions over coming years.\n - IMF encourages creditors and parties to reach debt resolution to restore durable debt sustainability.\n- Malawi:\n - Discussions on a new fund-supported program accelerated; further news expected soon.\n- Senegal:\n - IMF team scheduled to visit during the week of June 15th to continue technical discussions on macro outlook, financing needs, and reform priorities to address significant debt vulnerabilities.\n - IMF stated it will refrain from commenting on domestic political developments.\n- Iraq:\n - IMF welcomes formation of new government and looks forward to engagement; no further program details provided in the briefing.\n- Egypt:\n - Staff mission visited Cairo in May for Seventh Review under the EFF and Second Review under the RSF.\n - Discussions focused on authorities’ response to the war, policy package, and structural reform progress.\n - Authorities’ policy package aimed to:\n - Maintain a flexible exchange rate regime.\n - Ensure appropriately tight monetary policy to reduce inflation.\n - Continue fiscal consolidation to strengthen debt sustainability.\n - Enhance social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable.\n - Accelerate structural reforms to reduce the state footprint, strengthen governance, and promote private sector participation.\n - Good progress during the mission; discussions continue virtually toward a Staff-Level Agreement with aim to hold a Board meeting this summer.\n - An updated state ownership policy is expected to be published by the Egyptian authorities.\n- Argentina:\n - IMF Executive Board approved the Second Review of the EFF and concluded the 2026 Article IV Consultation; a combined Staff Report has been published.\n - Key achievements and metrics:\n - Annual inflation fell from around 200 percent at end-2023 to 30 percent today.\n - Fiscal deficit reduced by about 5 percentage points of GDP.\n - Argentina recorded consecutive primary fiscal surpluses for the first time in nearly two decades.\n - Poverty fell from over 50 percent to under 30 percent in recent years.\n - Since start of 2026, Central Bank purchased $10 billion in foreign exchange; net international reserves have risen by over $7 billion and are close to year-end targets.\n - Argentina’s spreads narrowed to below 500 basis points; country was recently upgraded by one credit rating agency.\n - Policy direction: authorities committed to fiscal anchor with further planned tax, pension, and fiscal framework reforms; gradual reduction in trade taxes and adoption of more predictable pension indexation formula highlighted.\n - Financing questions noted: discussion around return to international markets, alternative financing (e.g., repo), and $4.3 billion in debt payments set for early July referenced by questioners.\n- Venezuela:\n - May 30 meeting: Managing Director met Venezuela’s Vice President for Economic Affairs, Calixto Ortega Sánchez, at IMF HQ.\n - Outcomes:\n - Discussed IMF support to strengthen macroeconomic stability and a path to holding an Article IV Consultation.\n - Focus areas for immediate capacity development: fiscal management, strengthening the monetary policy framework, and improving macroeconomic statistics.\n - Agreement to deepen technical engagement and provide near-term technical assistance.\n - IMF is not yet involved in debt restructuring or the authorities’ DSA efforts.\n- Bilateral augmentations, rephasing, or program progress summary:\n - Specific country actions being prepared/presented to the Board: The Gambia (20 percent of quota augmentation + six-month extension proposal), Burkina Faso ($51 million augmentation under ECF), Ethiopia (rephasing to bring forward about $200 million), Malawi (new program discussions accelerated)." }, { "heading": "Financial stability, AI, and trade-related risks", "content": "- AI models and financial stability:\n - IMF is conducting work on implications of frontier AI models for financial systems; blog by Tobias Adrian (Financial Counselor) highlighted as preliminary work.\n - Recommendation: regulators and supervisors should step in to understand technological infrastructure and assess potential vulnerabilities; IMF analyzing impacts across members with different financial system sophistication.\n- Trade: reconfiguration and policy stance\n - IMF view: global trade patterns are reconfiguring (“reconfiguration of global trade” over last 18 months).\n - IMF encourages members to keep trade as an engine of growth, explore opportunities for regional integration in trade and finance, and seek cooperative solutions to trade disagreements (including tariff measures).\n - Tariff measures and WTO consultations are being monitored; IMF will provide balance of payments statements when requested in WTO consultations." }, { "heading": "Health shocks and emergency financing", "content": "- Ebola outbreak monitoring:\n - IMF is monitoring the Ebola outbreak (DRC, Uganda, South Sudan) for potential economic impacts and is engaging with authorities and development partners.\n - As of this briefing, IMF has received no requests for emergency financing related to the Ebola outbreak.\n\nFinal operational notes and embargo\n- IMF will continue bilateral follow-ups with media on unanswered questions via media@imf.org or the Press Center.\n- Transcript to be made available on IMF.org following the embargo.\n\nPress Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 4, 2026.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Senegal and the IMF\n- Arab Republic of Egypt and the IMF\n- Argentina and the IMF\n- Bangladesh and the IMF\n- The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF\n- Transcripts\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: June 4, 2026", "Managing Director travel and engagements:", "First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz:", "Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura:", "Deputy Managing Director Bo Li:", "Growth and activity:", "Inflation and policy implications:", "May 5 Balance of Payments Committee meeting at the WTO agreed to proceed with consultations regarding U.S. tariff notifications.", "IMF participation:", "Price and supply movements:", "Inventories and refined products:", "Modelling and forecasts:", "Policy stance:", "Fiscal space concerns:", "Domestic resource mobilization:", "Bangladesh:", "The Gambia:", "Burkina Faso:", "Ethiopia:", "Malawi:", "Senegal:", "Iraq:", "Egypt:", "Argentina:", "Venezuela:", "Bilateral augmentations, rephasing, or program progress summary:", "AI models and financial stability:", "Trade: reconfiguration and policy stance", "Ebola outbreak monitoring:", "IMF will continue bilateral follow-ups with media on unanswered questions via media@imf.org or the Press Center.", "Transcript to be made available on IMF.org following the embargo.", "[Senegal and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SEN/index.htm)", "[Arab Republic of Egypt and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/EGY/index.htm)", "[Argentina and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ARG/index.htm)", "[Bangladesh and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/BGD/index.htm)", "[The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ETH/index.htm)", "[Transcripts](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:42:33.232Z" }