## Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 4, 2026

_IMF News, June 4, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: June 4, 2026

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### Announcements and IMF leadership travel
- Managing Director travel and engagements:
  - June 9: Brussels, One Europe, One Market Summit.
  - June 11: Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings in Luxembourg; present findings of the 2026 Euro Area Annual Consultation.
  - June 12–14: Visit Andorra; meet authorities; attend ceremony celebrating Andorra's IMF membership.
  - June 15–16: Évian-les-Bains, France, G7 Leaders’ Summit.
  - June 17–18: Vienna, fireside chat with the Governor of the Central Bank of Austria for the 53rd Annual Economic Conference; sign memorandum of understanding to renew collaboration through the Joint Vienna Institute.
  - June 22: Sofia, Bulgaria, meetings with counterparts.
- First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz:
  - June 9–12: Japan meetings and event at the University of Tokyo.
  - June 17: Fireside chat at the Atlantic Council's Geoeconomics Center on stablecoins, tokenization, and cross-border payments.
  - June 22–23: United Kingdom meetings with financial sector and Bank of England.
- Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura:
  - June 4–5: Visit Thailand; meet Deputy Prime Minister and senior officials on medium-term policy priorities and 2026 Annual Meetings preparations.
- Deputy Managing Director Bo Li:
  - June 10: Deliver opening remarks at IMF HQ for launch of StatGPT, the Fund's AI-powered platform for official statistics.
  - June 23: Dalian, China, speak on an energy security panel at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meetings of New Champions.

### U.S. macroeconomic assessment and inflation outlook
- Growth and activity:
  - Current moderate growth of around 2 percent.
  - Q1 2026 GDP expanded by 1.6 percent, reflecting rebound in government consumption after the Q4 2025 shutdown.
  - Investment is strong; large capital imports have reduced net exports.
  - Labor productivity: output per hour grew cumulatively by 2.7 percent per year over the past three years.
  - Job growth slowing due to both lower labor supply and slowing labor demand.
- Inflation and policy implications:
  - Pass-through from higher tariffs gradually materializing into inflation.
  - Renewed headline inflation pressure from higher oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East.
  - IMF projects inflation in the U.S. will return to the 2 percent target by end 2027 (return to target was previously mid-2027).
  - Assessment: upside risks to inflation imply the Fed’s policy actions “will need to proceed with caution” and be carefully calibrated to incoming data; clear Fed communication remains essential.

### WTO consultations and IMF role on tariff-related balance of payments statements
- May 5 Balance of Payments Committee meeting at the WTO agreed to proceed with consultations regarding U.S. tariff notifications.
- IMF participation:
  - IMF will participate in these WTO consultations in line with institutional responsibilities and the established framework for collaboration with the WTO.
  - IMF role: provide a statement on the member’s (U.S.) macroeconomic balance of payments position.
  - Basis: Recently concluded Article IV Consultation for the U.S. will provide a basis for that statement.
  - Timing: No precise timing available yet; IMF will share details, including on potential publication of a statement, once determined.

### Oil markets, inventories, and implications for inflation and growth
- Price and supply movements:
  - Oil prices increased by about 35 percent since the start of the war in the Middle East.
  - Relative to the WEO reference scenario assumptions, oil prices are now only about 3 percent higher.
  - Bulk of the increase occurred in early March when oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stopped.
  - About 14 million barrels per day of oil production have been curtailed due to damaged or shut major oil facilities.
- Inventories and refined products:
  - Global strategic and commercial inventories stood at a five-year high of more than 8 billion barrels before the war.
  - Inventories are expected to reach a five-year low of 7.5 billion barrels in July.
  - Reserves of oil products are also low: European and Asian jet fuel prices up 35 percent from pre-war levels; gasoline prices up about 40 percent since the start of the war.
- Modelling and forecasts:
  - IMF uses the market futures curve for oil in its forecasts (does not produce an in-house oil price path).
  - Current futures curve shows spot price higher than futures, reflecting near-term risk premium.
  - Key determinant for speed of price normalization: duration of the war and timing of the Strait of Hormuz reopening; infrastructure damage may delay full transmission of any reopening to spot markets and supply chains.
- Policy stance:
  - Best resolution for market stability is a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but drawdowns and rerouting are already occurring.
  - IMF did not comment on specific policy measures (e.g., licensing decisions) but noted final decisions on such measures rest with respective authorities.

### Fiscal policy guidance, with emphasis on Africa and low-income countries
- Fiscal space concerns:
  - The oil/war shock occurs when many countries’ fiscal space is already constrained after a series of shocks.
  - IMF advice: be prudent with fiscal responses; target support to the most vulnerable households and firms if fiscal support is needed.
- Domestic resource mobilization:
  - Key pillar of IMF advice—especially in Africa—given low revenue-to-GDP ratios in many low-income and African countries.
  - Emphasis on raising domestic revenues and developing local capital markets to mobilize homegrown savings for development needs.

### IMF engagement and financing actions for member countries (selected)
- Bangladesh:
  - Authorities have requested a new IMF-supported program.
  - Existing arrangements: $5.5 billion ECF, EFF, and RSF are in place (noted as existing).
  - IMF staff are discussing reform agenda and policy priorities with authorities; as discussions progress, a Staff-Level Agreement would lead to presentation to the IMF Board and cancellation of prior program.
  - Key country vulnerabilities noted: high inflation, banking sector weaknesses, low revenue mobilization.
- The Gambia:
  - Authorities requested a 20 percent of quota augmentation and a six-month extension of the program with rephasing of access; to be presented to the Executive Board.
- Burkina Faso:
  - Staff-Level Agreement reached on augmentation of access under the ECF of $51 million, driven partly by higher balance of payments needs due to higher fertilizer costs.
- Ethiopia:
  - IMF to propose rephasing of disbursements to bring forward about $200 million this year to address immediate war impact.
  - Authorities have taken steps to modernize monetary and exchange rate framework (FX trading platform, eliminate surrender requirements on services exports, ease retail transaction limits); parallel market premium has reduced in recent months.
  - Fuel subsidy removal: program includes a government contribution target to the Productive Safety Net Program to protect vulnerable households; intention to expand the program to all regions over coming years.
  - IMF encourages creditors and parties to reach debt resolution to restore durable debt sustainability.
- Malawi:
  - Discussions on a new fund-supported program accelerated; further news expected soon.
- Senegal:
  - IMF team scheduled to visit during the week of June 15th to continue technical discussions on macro outlook, financing needs, and reform priorities to address significant debt vulnerabilities.
  - IMF stated it will refrain from commenting on domestic political developments.
- Iraq:
  - IMF welcomes formation of new government and looks forward to engagement; no further program details provided in the briefing.
- Egypt:
  - Staff mission visited Cairo in May for Seventh Review under the EFF and Second Review under the RSF.
  - Discussions focused on authorities’ response to the war, policy package, and structural reform progress.
  - Authorities’ policy package aimed to:
    - Maintain a flexible exchange rate regime.
    - Ensure appropriately tight monetary policy to reduce inflation.
    - Continue fiscal consolidation to strengthen debt sustainability.
    - Enhance social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable.
    - Accelerate structural reforms to reduce the state footprint, strengthen governance, and promote private sector participation.
  - Good progress during the mission; discussions continue virtually toward a Staff-Level Agreement with aim to hold a Board meeting this summer.
  - An updated state ownership policy is expected to be published by the Egyptian authorities.
- Argentina:
  - IMF Executive Board approved the Second Review of the EFF and concluded the 2026 Article IV Consultation; a combined Staff Report has been published.
  - Key achievements and metrics:
    - Annual inflation fell from around 200 percent at end-2023 to 30 percent today.
    - Fiscal deficit reduced by about 5 percentage points of GDP.
    - Argentina recorded consecutive primary fiscal surpluses for the first time in nearly two decades.
    - Poverty fell from over 50 percent to under 30 percent in recent years.
    - Since start of 2026, Central Bank purchased $10 billion in foreign exchange; net international reserves have risen by over $7 billion and are close to year-end targets.
    - Argentina’s spreads narrowed to below 500 basis points; country was recently upgraded by one credit rating agency.
  - Policy direction: authorities committed to fiscal anchor with further planned tax, pension, and fiscal framework reforms; gradual reduction in trade taxes and adoption of more predictable pension indexation formula highlighted.
  - Financing questions noted: discussion around return to international markets, alternative financing (e.g., repo), and $4.3 billion in debt payments set for early July referenced by questioners.
- Venezuela:
  - May 30 meeting: Managing Director met Venezuela’s Vice President for Economic Affairs, Calixto Ortega Sánchez, at IMF HQ.
  - Outcomes:
    - Discussed IMF support to strengthen macroeconomic stability and a path to holding an Article IV Consultation.
    - Focus areas for immediate capacity development: fiscal management, strengthening the monetary policy framework, and improving macroeconomic statistics.
    - Agreement to deepen technical engagement and provide near-term technical assistance.
    - IMF is not yet involved in debt restructuring or the authorities’ DSA efforts.
- Bilateral augmentations, rephasing, or program progress summary:
  - Specific country actions being prepared/presented to the Board: The Gambia (20 percent of quota augmentation + six-month extension proposal), Burkina Faso ($51 million augmentation under ECF), Ethiopia (rephasing to bring forward about $200 million), Malawi (new program discussions accelerated).

### Financial stability, AI, and trade-related risks
- AI models and financial stability:
  - IMF is conducting work on implications of frontier AI models for financial systems; blog by Tobias Adrian (Financial Counselor) highlighted as preliminary work.
  - Recommendation: regulators and supervisors should step in to understand technological infrastructure and assess potential vulnerabilities; IMF analyzing impacts across members with different financial system sophistication.
- Trade: reconfiguration and policy stance
  - IMF view: global trade patterns are reconfiguring (“reconfiguration of global trade” over last 18 months).
  - IMF encourages members to keep trade as an engine of growth, explore opportunities for regional integration in trade and finance, and seek cooperative solutions to trade disagreements (including tariff measures).
  - Tariff measures and WTO consultations are being monitored; IMF will provide balance of payments statements when requested in WTO consultations.

### Health shocks and emergency financing
- Ebola outbreak monitoring:
  - IMF is monitoring the Ebola outbreak (DRC, Uganda, South Sudan) for potential economic impacts and is engaging with authorities and development partners.
  - As of this briefing, IMF has received no requests for emergency financing related to the Ebola outbreak.

Final operational notes and embargo
- IMF will continue bilateral follow-ups with media on unanswered questions via media@imf.org or the Press Center.
- Transcript to be made available on IMF.org following the embargo.

*Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 4, 2026.*

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## References

- [Senegal and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SEN/index.htm)
- [Arab Republic of Egypt and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/EGY/index.htm)
- [Argentina and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ARG/index.htm)
- [Bangladesh and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/BGD/index.htm)
- [The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ETH/index.htm)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/04/tr-06042026-imf-regular-briefing-june-4-2026_