## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Namibia _IMF News, June 11, 2026_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Namibia](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/11/pr-26198-namibia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/06/11/pr-26198-namibia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/06/11/pr-26198-namibia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/06/11/pr-26198-namibia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: June 11, 2026 --- ### Executive summary - Economic growth slowed to 1.7 percent in 2025, reflecting deep and prolonged weakness in the diamond sector, gradual recovery of gold and livestock production, and a slowdown in oil exploration; these drags were partly offset by strong uranium output and services sector activity. - Real GDP growth is projected at 2.1 percent in 2026 and to recover gradually to around 3 percent over the medium term. - Inflation declined sharply during 2025, supported by lower global food prices and earlier easing in fuel prices; recent fuel price increases resulting from the war in the Middle East are putting upward pressure on inflation. - Safeguarding macroeconomic stability requires: maintaining fiscal prudence to place public debt on a downward path; carefully calibrating monetary policy to preserve the credibility of the exchange‑rate peg to the South African rand; and strengthening financial‑sector oversight to mitigate rising sovereign–financial sector linkages. - Achieving inclusive and sustainable growth requires accelerating structural reforms to support private‑sector development, reduce regulatory bottlenecks, improve skills alignment, and enhance public investment efficiency, while establishing a robust and transparent framework to manage potential opportunities from developing oil, gas, and green hydrogen. ### Near-term and medium-term macroeconomic outlook - 2025: Real GDP growth 1.7 percent; inflation moderated in 2025. - 2026: Real GDP growth projected at 2.1 percent; inflation projected to pick up modestly in 2026 due to higher fuel prices and then converge toward 3 percent over the medium term, consistent with South Africa’s new inflation target. - Medium term: Growth expected to recover gradually to around 3 percent (described as potential). - Sector dynamics: - Diamond sector: deep and prolonged weakness constraining growth. - Gold: gradual recovery but declining production expected to weigh on 2026 growth. - Uranium: strong output supporting growth. - Oil exploration: slowdown contributed to lower growth; new gold mines expected to come on stream by 2028. - Risks: - External downside risks: escalation of the war in the Middle East, tighter global financial conditions, further weakness in natural diamond demand. - Domestic downside risks: foot-and-mouth disease spreading from neighboring countries, volatility in SACU revenue transfers, rising public debt and interest costs, increased exposure to climate‑related shocks. - Upside risks: faster final investment decisions in oil, gas, and green hydrogen projects; stronger gains from structural and public investment reforms. ### Fiscal assessment and recommendations - Executive Board welcomes authorities’ commitment to fiscal consolidation; FY26/27 budget seen as a positive step toward debt sustainability. - Consolidation drivers: expenditure restraint and PSEMAS reform. - Over the medium term, additional consolidation needed to: - Create space for growth-enhancing investment. - Strengthen social protection. - Enhance resilience to shocks. - Ensure debt sustainability. - Priority fiscal reforms: - Durable wage bill reduction via comprehensive civil service reform, including functional job reviews and rationalization of public sector employment. - Strengthen oversight of PEs by implementing the PE management framework to mitigate fiscal risks and improve efficiency. - Strengthen public financial management through legislative amendments and implementation of PIMA recommendations to enhance budget credibility. - Revenue mobilization: improvements in tax administration and better resource rent capture, particularly in fisheries. - Welwitschia Fund legislation proposed as key to managing future resource revenues prudently. ### Monetary policy and exchange‑rate peg - Careful calibration of the alignment of the Bank of Namibia’s policy rate with that of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is essential to safeguard the peg. - The gap reduction to 25 bps from 75 bps previously is noted as a positive step. - Closing the gap eventually will be important to safeguard reserves and mitigate potential external pressures amid global uncertainty and tightening fiscal space. - BoN repo rate (percent): 7.75 in 2023; 7.00 in 2024; 6.50 in 2025; figure for 2026 is as of May 8, 2026 (ellipsis “…” reported in source). ### Financial sector resilience - Progress reported on enhancing financial sector resilience: - Strengthen risk-based supervision. - Enhance stress-testing framework. - Fully implement the FIMA. - Develop an effective ELA framework. - Development of the CCyB, the Instant Payment System, and enhanced crisis resolution frameworks. - Financial system assessment: stable and well-capitalized, but vigilance warranted, particularly regarding sovereign-bank linkages. ### Structural reforms and diversification - Structural reforms essential to unlock growth potential and ensure broad-based development. - Opportunities from oil, gas, and green hydrogen require: - Clear policy frameworks. - Balanced local content strategies. - Alignment of education and training systems with evolving labor market needs. - Broader reform priorities: - Reduce regulatory barriers. - Improve infrastructure and service delivery. - Foster digital transformation. - Support MSMEs and enhance access to finance to expand private sector participation and innovation. ### Key statistics (selected from Table 1) - Population (2025, million): 3.1 - Main exports: Gold, Uranium, Fish, Diamonds. - Key export markets: South Africa, Botswana, China, Zambia, and Belgium. - Real GDP growth (percent): 2023: 4.3; 2024: 3.8; 2025: 1.7; 2026: 2.1; 2027: 2.8; 2028: 3.0; 2029: 3.1. - Nominal GDP growth (percent): 2023: 12.4; 2024: 8.2; 2025: 7.9; 2026: 9.5; 2027: 7.6; 2028: 5.7; 2029: 6.3; 2030: 6.0; 2031: 5.9. - Nominal GDP (billions of N$): 2023: 231.0; 2024: 250.0; 2025: 269.8; 2026: 295.3; 2027: 317.8; 2028: 335.9; 2029: 357.0; 2030: 378.5; 2031: 400.8. - Nominal GDP per capita (USD): 2023: 4,274; 2024: 4,549; 2025: 4,924; 2026: 5,660; 2027: 5,882; 2028: 6,054; 2029: 6,274; 2030: 6,486; 2031: 6,696. - GDP Deflator (percent): 2023: 7.7; 2024: 6.1; 2025: 7.2; 2026: 4.7; 2027: 2.6; 2028: 2.9. - CPI Inflation, average (percent): 2023: 4.2; 2024: 3.5; 2025: 3.9; 2026: 3.4. - CPI Inflation, end of period (percent): 2023: 5.3; 2024: 3.2. - Central Government Budget (percent of GDP) — Revenue and grants: 2023: 34.7; 2024: 35.2; 2025: 32.0; 2026: 30.9; 2027: 30.5; 2028: 30.8. - Central Government Budget — of which: SACU receipts (percent of GDP): 2023: 10.3; 2024: 11.0; 2025: 8.1; 2026: 8.0; 2027: 7.8. - Expenditure (percent of GDP): 2023: 37.1; 2024: 39.4; 2025: 38.4; 2026: 36.4; 2027: 35.3; 2028: 35.6. - Personnel expenditure (percent of GDP): 2023: 13.7; 2024: 13.9; 2025: 13.4; 2026: 13.3; 2027: 12.7; 2028: 12.6. - Capital expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2023: 3.6; 2024: 2.3; 2025: (not shown for 2026 onward in source snippet). - Primary balance (percent of GDP): 2023: 0.9; 2024: -1.2; 2025: -0.3; 2026: 0.4; 2027: 0.7. - Overall fiscal balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -2.4; 2024: -4.2; 2025: -6.4; 2026: -5.5; 2027: -4.9; 2028: -4.4; 2029: -4.6; 2030: -4.8. - Overall fiscal balance ex. SACU (percent of GDP): 2023: -12.7; 2024: -15.2; 2025: -14.1; 2026: -13.2; 2027: -13.0; 2028: -12.5; 2029: -12.4; 2030: -12.6. - Public debt, gross (percent of GDP): 2023: 65.9; 2024: 67.1; 2025: 66.1; 2026: 66.3; 2027: 67.9; 2028: 68.6; 2029: 69.6; 2030: 70.7. - Investment (percent of GDP): 2023: 28.1; 2024: 25.0; 2025: 18.7; 2026: 24.6; 2027: 23.0; 2028: 23.1; 2029: 22.6; 2030: 21.6. - Public: 2023: 2.2; 2024: 2.0; 2025: 2.7; 2026: 2.5. - Others (incl. SOEs): 2023: 24.0; 2024: 22.0; 2025: 18.8; 2026: 20.5; 2027: 20.0; 2028: 19.0. - Change inventories (percent of GDP): 2023: 1.9; 2024: 1.0; 2025: -2.8; 2026: 0.0. - Savings (percent of GDP): 2023: 13.1; 2024: 11.1; 2025: 5.6; 2026: 9.6; 2027: 10.0; 2028: 10.5; 2029: 10.6; 2030: 10.2. - Broad money (percent): 2023: 10.7; 2024: 9.7; 2025: 6.5; 2026: 9.2; 2027: 8.6; 2028: 7.4. - Credit to the private sector: (figures by year not shown in source snippet). - Balance of Payments — Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -15.0; 2024: -14.9; 2025: -13.1; 2026: -15.1; 2027: -12.1; 2028: -11.4. - Financial account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -15.8; 2024: -17.5; 2025: -6.5; 2026: -13.9; 2027: -11.8; 2028: -11.2; 2029: -11.0. - Gross official reserves (percent of GDP): 2023: 24.7; 2024: 20.6; 2025: 17.5; 2026: 17.3; 2027: 17.4. - Reserves (in months of imports): 2023: 3.7; 2024: 4.1. - External debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 75.4; 2024: 74.0; 2025: 70.8; 2026: 63.4; 2027: 62.2; 2028: 61.4; 2029: 60.4; 2030: 59.3; 2031: 58.3. - of which: public (incl. IMF) (percent of GDP): 2023: 16.4; 2024: 14.9; 2025: 7.1; 2026: 6.2; 2027: 5.1; 2028: 4.6; 2029: 4.0. - REER (percent, yoy): -6.3 (year not specified in table excerpt). - Average exchange rate (Namibian dollar per USD): 18.5; 18.3; 17.9 (years not individually labeled in excerpt). ### Executive Board assessment (condensed) - Directors endorsed staff appraisal. - While Namibia has demonstrated resilience to global trade frictions, growth remains insufficient to meaningfully reduce unemployment, inequality, and poverty. - Growth remains narrowly based and concentrated in public and extractive sectors; youth unemployment remains particularly high. - Policy focus recommended: enable private sector‑led growth, reduce structural barriers to employment, expand opportunities across sectors, and advance fiscal, monetary, financial, and structural reforms as outlined above. *IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Namibia (Press Release No. 26/198), June 11, 2026.* --- ## References - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/11/pr-26198-namibia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation_