## IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Kazakhstan

_IMF News, June 16, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: June 16, 2026

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### Overview
- Mission led by Amina Lahreche visited Kazakhstan during June 3-12, 2026.
- Statement issued June 15, 2026. Views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board.
- Key headline: Economic growth remains robust, supported by high global oil prices, dynamic domestic demand, and investment inflows; banks are well capitalized and liquid; still-elevated inflation despite a recent decline and risks of disruption to oil exports weigh on the outlook.

### Growth and outlook
- Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent in the first five months of 2026, down from 6.5 percent at end-2025.
- IMF team projects growth at about 4.6 percent in 2026.
- Drivers:
  - Robust performance in services, transport, construction, and manufacturing offset lower oil production in early 2026.
  - Elevated oil prices counterbalance stabilization of oil output, slowdown of household credit growth, and ongoing fiscal consolidation.

### Inflation and monetary policy
- Inflation timeline and levels:
  - 12.9 percent in September 2025.
  - 10.4 percent in May 2026.
  - Inflation is projected to remain around 10 percent this year.
- Policy developments and recommendations:
  - National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points in June 2026 after tightening liquidity.
  - Monetary stance should remain tight until inflation is firmly on track toward the 5 percent target.
  - Planned measures to reduce excess liquidity include higher reserve requirements and increased issuance of NBK notes.
  - Quasi-fiscal spending discipline should avoid procyclicality; NBK should stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation does not continue on a firmly downward trajectory.
- Risks to inflation:
  - External price pressures.
  - Acceleration of quasi-fiscal activities and capital spending in the second half of the year.
  - Continued utility price adjustments.
  - Weakly anchored expectations.

### Fiscal and external balances
- Fiscal outlook:
  - Fiscal and external positions are projected to strengthen on the back of elevated oil prices and tax reforms.
  - Non-oil fiscal deficit is projected to decline further in 2026 with implementation of the new tax codes and conservative spending.
  - Recommended measures: broaden the tax base, strengthen revenue administration through digitalization, reduce exemptions.
  - Emphasis on fiscal discipline and enhanced spending efficiency to support the Government’s Joint Action Program to lower inflation.
- External sector:
  - Current account expected to shift from a deficit of 4.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to a marginal surplus in 2026.
  - International reserves cover about 10 months of imports.

### Financial sector and macroprudential measures
- Banking sector status:
  - Banks are well capitalized, liquid and profitable overall.
  - Non-performing loans are low and well provisioned.
- Macroprudential actions and reforms:
  - Tighter prudential measures, including activation of sectoral countercyclical capital buffer with respect to credit to individuals, have helped moderate consumer lending.
  - New Banking Law updated the resolution framework for banks.
  - Continued monitoring of vulnerabilities and ongoing tight macroprudential stance are important to contain financial stability risks.

### Risks, scenarios, and contingencies
- Downside risks:
  - Potential disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline could pose downside risks to growth.
  - Global uncertainty and tighter financial conditions could weigh on investment inflows.
  - Stronger domestic demand or higher import prices could reignite inflation and further de-anchor expectations.
- Upside scenarios:
  - Sustained high oil prices, if prudently managed, together with effective implementation of the Joint Action Program and well-sequenced utility tariff reforms, could strengthen fiscal and external buffers and help anchor inflation.

### Policy recommendations and structural priorities
- Macro policy mix:
  - Maintain fiscal discipline and quasi-fiscal spending discipline to avoid procyclicality.
  - Keep monetary policy focused on bringing inflation to the 5 percent target through a tight stance until inflation is firmly on track.
- Fiscal reforms and efficiency:
  - Broaden the tax base, strengthen revenue administration through digitalization, and reduce exemptions to support fiscal consolidation.
  - Enhance public spending efficiency, including through the use of Digital Tenge, which enables real-time tracking and targeted use of budgetary and National Fund resources.
- Structural reforms to raise potential growth:
  - Reduce the state footprint.
  - Boost private investment.
  - Deepen capital markets.
  - Upgrade human, physical, and digital infrastructure.

*IMF staff statement, June 15, 2026.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/15/pr26207-kazakhstan-imf-staff-concludes-visit_