{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan",
  "publication": "IMF News, June 18, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/18/pr-26214-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan",
  "publishDate": "2026-06-18",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Uzbekistan’s economy continued to perform strongly with robust growth, gradually moderating inflation, improving fiscal and external balances, and ample international reserves.\n- The outlook is positive but subject to elevated uncertainty; downside risks include deterioration in global conditions and potential overheating, while faster reform implementation is an upside.\n- Policy priorities: contain demand pressures, safeguard macro‑financial stability, and accelerate reforms to strengthen productive capacity and foster private‑sector‑led, sustainable growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic performance and outlook",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth:\n  - 2025: 7.7 percent\n  - Q1 2026: 8.7 percent year-on-year (y/y)\n  - Projected 2026: about 6.8 percent\n  - Projected 2027: 6 percent\n- Inflation and prices:\n  - Consumer price inflation: 7.0 percent y/y in April 2026\n  - CBU target: 5 percent by end-2027\n- Labor and welfare:\n  - Unemployment and poverty declined further (no numeric values provided beyond trend).\n- External sector:\n  - Current account deficit: 3.9 percent of GDP in 2025 (reduction from prior years)\n  - Projected current account deficit: 3.2 percent of GDP in 2026\n  - International reserves: projected to remain comfortable, exceeding twelve months of imports by end-2026\n- Drivers of improvement: buoyant economic activity, high gold prices, strong remittances, and non-gold exports."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment — key messages",
      "content": "- Growth remains buoyant, supported by market‑oriented reforms; fiscal and external positions improved; inflation on a downward trend.\n- Economic activity likely running above potential amid strong domestic demand; global uncertainty and risks remain large.\n- Importance of prudently managing the current juncture while advancing supply‑side reforms to sustain durable and inclusive growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Priorities:\n  - Limit overheating risks and rebuild buffers.\n  - Avoid adding to demand pressures in 2026, particularly given likely revenue overperformance.\n  - Contain within‑year expenditure adjustments to support disinflation and reinforce policy credibility.\n- Medium‑term reforms:\n  - Enhance fiscal framework to insulate spending from volatile mineral revenues.\n  - Introduce a complementary operational anchor, such as a ceiling on the non‑mineral primary deficit.\n- Revenue mobilization and institutions:\n  - Increase specific excise taxes, reduce exemptions and tax holidays, and strengthen tax and customs administration to reverse the decline in the tax‑to‑GDP ratio.\n  - Upgrade medium‑term budgeting, public investment management, treasury operations, and fiscal risk oversight (especially for SOEs and PPPs) to improve spending quality, efficiency, and transparency."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy and exchange rate policy",
      "content": "- Monetary stance:\n  - Should remain firmly oriented toward durably anchoring inflation at the CBU’s target.\n  - With strong domestic demand and a likely positive output gap, maintaining a sufficiently restrictive stance is warranted; readiness to tighten further if disinflation stalls.\n- Exchange rate and FX markets:\n  - Preserve recent increase in exchange rate flexibility to aid shock absorption, reserve protection, and inflation‑targeting effectiveness.\n  - Continue efforts to deepen FX markets, strengthen liquidity management, and phase out directed and preferential lending to enhance monetary transmission."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and macro‑financial stability",
      "content": "- Implement FSAP recommendations decisively.\n- Progress welcomed on capital buffers, borrower‑based measures, and supervisory frameworks, but momentum must be sustained.\n- Priority actions:\n  - Accelerate restructuring and privatization of SOCBs.\n  - Strengthen asset quality recognition.\n  - Safeguard central bank autonomy.\n- Financial inclusion should rely on competition, transparency, and sound risk management rather than directed/preferential lending."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms and labor/climate policies",
      "content": "- Reduce state footprint and strengthen market institutions to lift productivity and private‑sector dynamism.\n  - Advance SOE reform via privatization where feasible and stronger governance where state ownership remains.\n  - Accelerate governance reforms, including whistleblower protection and asset declaration frameworks.\n  - Strengthen competition policy, operationalize sector regulators, and complete WTO accession.\n- Labor market and climate policies:\n  - Address barriers to labor force participation (especially for women and youth), tackle skill mismatches, and reduce informality.\n  - Integrate climate considerations into public investment planning to improve energy efficiency, resilience, and decarbonization."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data, statistics, and transparency",
      "content": "- Data are broadly adequate for surveillance, but further improvements are needed:\n  - Apply institutional sectorization consistently across macroeconomic datasets.\n  - Produce quarterly GDP.\n  - Align financial soundness indicators with international standards.\n- Authorities committed to statistical modernization, supported by continued capacity development."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic indicators (2023–2027)",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth (percent change): 2023: 6.3; 2024: 6.7; 2025: 7.7; 2026 Proj.: 6.8; 2027 Proj.: 6.0\n- Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum): 2023: 1,262; 2024: 1,535; 2025: 1,850; 2026 Proj.: 2,154; 2027 Proj.: 2,465\n- GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars): 2023: 2,922; 2024: 3,232; 2025: 3,846; 2026 Proj.: 4,528; 2027 Proj.: 4,957\n- Population (in millions): 2023: 36.8; 2024: 37.5; 2025: 38.2; 2026 Proj.: 38.9; 2027 Proj.: 39.7\n- Consumer price inflation (end of period, percent change): 2023: 8.8; 2024: 9.8; 2025: 7.3; 2026 Proj.: 5.0\n- GDP deflator (percent change): 2023: 13.9; 2024: 14.1; 2025: 11.9; 2026 Proj.: 9.0; 2027 Proj.: 8.0\n- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -7.3; 2024: -4.7; 2025: -3.9; 2026 Proj.: -3.2; 2027 Proj.: -3.6\n- External debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 50.8; 2024: 53.1; 2025: 54.2; 2026 Proj.: 51.8; 2027 Proj.: 49.5\n- Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period): 2023: 12,339; 2024: 12,920; 2025: 12,025\n- Real effective exchange rate (ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation): 2023: 59.9; 2024: 56.9; 2025: 58.7\n- Consolidated budget revenues (percent of GDP): 2023: 25.6; 2024: 25.2; 2025: 27.2; 2026 Proj.: 28.2; 2027 Proj.: 27.7\n- Consolidated budget expenditures (percent of GDP): 2023: 30.2; 2024: 28.1; 2025: 29.3; 2026 Proj.: 29.7\n- Consolidated budget balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -4.6; 2024: -3.0; 2025: -2.1; 2026 Proj.: -1.5; 2027 Proj.: -2.0\n- Adjusted revenues 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 24.8; 2024: 24.2; 2025: 25.7; 2026 Proj.: 26.7; 2027 Proj.: 26.3\n- Adjusted expenditures 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 28.6; 2024: 27.4; 2025: 27.5; 2026 Proj.: 27.5\n- Adjusted fiscal balance 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: -3.8; 2024: -1.6; 2025: -0.7; 2026 Proj.: -1.1\n- Policy lending 3/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 0.8; 2024: 0.9; 2025: 0.5\n- Public debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 30.7; 2024: 30.9\n- Reserve money (percent change): 2023: 4.9; 2024: 9.5; 2025: 23.2; 2026 Proj.: 11.0\n- Broad money (percent change): 2023: 12.2; 2024: 30.6; 2025: 36.6; 2026 Proj.: 18.4; 2027 Proj.: 15.4\n- Credit to the economy (percent change): 2023: 14.0; 2024: 15.3; 2025: 16.7; 2026 Proj.: 15.7\n\nSource: Press Release No. 26/214, June 18, 2026, IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/Uzbekistan\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/18/pr-26214-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation"
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    "Published: June 18, 2026",
    "Uzbekistan’s economy continued to perform strongly with robust growth, gradually moderating inflation, improving fiscal and external balances, and ample international reserves.",
    "The outlook is positive but subject to elevated uncertainty; downside risks include deterioration in global conditions and potential overheating, while faster reform implementation is an upside.",
    "Policy priorities: contain demand pressures, safeguard macro‑financial stability, and accelerate reforms to strengthen productive capacity and foster private‑sector‑led, sustainable growth.",
    "Real GDP growth:",
    "Inflation and prices:",
    "Labor and welfare:",
    "External sector:",
    "Drivers of improvement: buoyant economic activity, high gold prices, strong remittances, and non-gold exports.",
    "Growth remains buoyant, supported by market‑oriented reforms; fiscal and external positions improved; inflation on a downward trend.",
    "Economic activity likely running above potential amid strong domestic demand; global uncertainty and risks remain large.",
    "Importance of prudently managing the current juncture while advancing supply‑side reforms to sustain durable and inclusive growth.",
    "Priorities:",
    "Medium‑term reforms:",
    "Revenue mobilization and institutions:",
    "Monetary stance:",
    "Exchange rate and FX markets:",
    "Implement FSAP recommendations decisively.",
    "Progress welcomed on capital buffers, borrower‑based measures, and supervisory frameworks, but momentum must be sustained.",
    "Priority actions:",
    "Financial inclusion should rely on competition, transparency, and sound risk management rather than directed/preferential lending.",
    "Reduce state footprint and strengthen market institutions to lift productivity and private‑sector dynamism.",
    "Labor market and climate policies:",
    "Data are broadly adequate for surveillance, but further improvements are needed:",
    "Authorities committed to statistical modernization, supported by continued capacity development.",
    "Real GDP growth (percent change): 2023: 6.3; 2024: 6.7; 2025: 7.7; 2026 Proj.: 6.8; 2027 Proj.: 6.0",
    "Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum): 2023: 1,262; 2024: 1,535; 2025: 1,850; 2026 Proj.: 2,154; 2027 Proj.: 2,465",
    "GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars): 2023: 2,922; 2024: 3,232; 2025: 3,846; 2026 Proj.: 4,528; 2027 Proj.: 4,957",
    "Population (in millions): 2023: 36.8; 2024: 37.5; 2025: 38.2; 2026 Proj.: 38.9; 2027 Proj.: 39.7",
    "Consumer price inflation (end of period, percent change): 2023: 8.8; 2024: 9.8; 2025: 7.3; 2026 Proj.: 5.0",
    "GDP deflator (percent change): 2023: 13.9; 2024: 14.1; 2025: 11.9; 2026 Proj.: 9.0; 2027 Proj.: 8.0",
    "Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -7.3; 2024: -4.7; 2025: -3.9; 2026 Proj.: -3.2; 2027 Proj.: -3.6",
    "External debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 50.8; 2024: 53.1; 2025: 54.2; 2026 Proj.: 51.8; 2027 Proj.: 49.5",
    "Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period): 2023: 12,339; 2024: 12,920; 2025: 12,025",
    "Real effective exchange rate (ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation): 2023: 59.9; 2024: 56.9; 2025: 58.7",
    "Consolidated budget revenues (percent of GDP): 2023: 25.6; 2024: 25.2; 2025: 27.2; 2026 Proj.: 28.2; 2027 Proj.: 27.7",
    "Consolidated budget expenditures (percent of GDP): 2023: 30.2; 2024: 28.1; 2025: 29.3; 2026 Proj.: 29.7",
    "Consolidated budget balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -4.6; 2024: -3.0; 2025: -2.1; 2026 Proj.: -1.5; 2027 Proj.: -2.0",
    "Adjusted revenues 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 24.8; 2024: 24.2; 2025: 25.7; 2026 Proj.: 26.7; 2027 Proj.: 26.3",
    "Adjusted expenditures 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 28.6; 2024: 27.4; 2025: 27.5; 2026 Proj.: 27.5",
    "Adjusted fiscal balance 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: -3.8; 2024: -1.6; 2025: -0.7; 2026 Proj.: -1.1",
    "Policy lending 3/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 0.8; 2024: 0.9; 2025: 0.5",
    "Public debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 30.7; 2024: 30.9",
    "Reserve money (percent change): 2023: 4.9; 2024: 9.5; 2025: 23.2; 2026 Proj.: 11.0",
    "Broad money (percent change): 2023: 12.2; 2024: 30.6; 2025: 36.6; 2026 Proj.: 18.4; 2027 Proj.: 15.4",
    "Credit to the economy (percent change): 2023: 14.0; 2024: 15.3; 2025: 16.7; 2026 Proj.: 15.7",
    "[Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UZB/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/Uzbekistan](http://www.imf.org/Uzbekistan)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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