## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan _IMF News, June 18, 2026_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/18/pr-26214-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/06/18/pr-26214-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/06/18/pr-26214-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/06/18/pr-26214-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: June 18, 2026 --- ### Summary - Uzbekistan’s economy continued to perform strongly with robust growth, gradually moderating inflation, improving fiscal and external balances, and ample international reserves. - The outlook is positive but subject to elevated uncertainty; downside risks include deterioration in global conditions and potential overheating, while faster reform implementation is an upside. - Policy priorities: contain demand pressures, safeguard macro‑financial stability, and accelerate reforms to strengthen productive capacity and foster private‑sector‑led, sustainable growth. ### Macroeconomic performance and outlook - Real GDP growth: - 2025: 7.7 percent - Q1 2026: 8.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) - Projected 2026: about 6.8 percent - Projected 2027: 6 percent - Inflation and prices: - Consumer price inflation: 7.0 percent y/y in April 2026 - CBU target: 5 percent by end-2027 - Labor and welfare: - Unemployment and poverty declined further (no numeric values provided beyond trend). - External sector: - Current account deficit: 3.9 percent of GDP in 2025 (reduction from prior years) - Projected current account deficit: 3.2 percent of GDP in 2026 - International reserves: projected to remain comfortable, exceeding twelve months of imports by end-2026 - Drivers of improvement: buoyant economic activity, high gold prices, strong remittances, and non-gold exports. ### Executive Board assessment — key messages - Growth remains buoyant, supported by market‑oriented reforms; fiscal and external positions improved; inflation on a downward trend. - Economic activity likely running above potential amid strong domestic demand; global uncertainty and risks remain large. - Importance of prudently managing the current juncture while advancing supply‑side reforms to sustain durable and inclusive growth. ### Fiscal policy recommendations - Priorities: - Limit overheating risks and rebuild buffers. - Avoid adding to demand pressures in 2026, particularly given likely revenue overperformance. - Contain within‑year expenditure adjustments to support disinflation and reinforce policy credibility. - Medium‑term reforms: - Enhance fiscal framework to insulate spending from volatile mineral revenues. - Introduce a complementary operational anchor, such as a ceiling on the non‑mineral primary deficit. - Revenue mobilization and institutions: - Increase specific excise taxes, reduce exemptions and tax holidays, and strengthen tax and customs administration to reverse the decline in the tax‑to‑GDP ratio. - Upgrade medium‑term budgeting, public investment management, treasury operations, and fiscal risk oversight (especially for SOEs and PPPs) to improve spending quality, efficiency, and transparency. ### Monetary policy and exchange rate policy - Monetary stance: - Should remain firmly oriented toward durably anchoring inflation at the CBU’s target. - With strong domestic demand and a likely positive output gap, maintaining a sufficiently restrictive stance is warranted; readiness to tighten further if disinflation stalls. - Exchange rate and FX markets: - Preserve recent increase in exchange rate flexibility to aid shock absorption, reserve protection, and inflation‑targeting effectiveness. - Continue efforts to deepen FX markets, strengthen liquidity management, and phase out directed and preferential lending to enhance monetary transmission. ### Financial sector and macro‑financial stability - Implement FSAP recommendations decisively. - Progress welcomed on capital buffers, borrower‑based measures, and supervisory frameworks, but momentum must be sustained. - Priority actions: - Accelerate restructuring and privatization of SOCBs. - Strengthen asset quality recognition. - Safeguard central bank autonomy. - Financial inclusion should rely on competition, transparency, and sound risk management rather than directed/preferential lending. ### Structural reforms and labor/climate policies - Reduce state footprint and strengthen market institutions to lift productivity and private‑sector dynamism. - Advance SOE reform via privatization where feasible and stronger governance where state ownership remains. - Accelerate governance reforms, including whistleblower protection and asset declaration frameworks. - Strengthen competition policy, operationalize sector regulators, and complete WTO accession. - Labor market and climate policies: - Address barriers to labor force participation (especially for women and youth), tackle skill mismatches, and reduce informality. - Integrate climate considerations into public investment planning to improve energy efficiency, resilience, and decarbonization. ### Data, statistics, and transparency - Data are broadly adequate for surveillance, but further improvements are needed: - Apply institutional sectorization consistently across macroeconomic datasets. - Produce quarterly GDP. - Align financial soundness indicators with international standards. - Authorities committed to statistical modernization, supported by continued capacity development. ### Selected economic indicators (2023–2027) - Real GDP growth (percent change): 2023: 6.3; 2024: 6.7; 2025: 7.7; 2026 Proj.: 6.8; 2027 Proj.: 6.0 - Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum): 2023: 1,262; 2024: 1,535; 2025: 1,850; 2026 Proj.: 2,154; 2027 Proj.: 2,465 - GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars): 2023: 2,922; 2024: 3,232; 2025: 3,846; 2026 Proj.: 4,528; 2027 Proj.: 4,957 - Population (in millions): 2023: 36.8; 2024: 37.5; 2025: 38.2; 2026 Proj.: 38.9; 2027 Proj.: 39.7 - Consumer price inflation (end of period, percent change): 2023: 8.8; 2024: 9.8; 2025: 7.3; 2026 Proj.: 5.0 - GDP deflator (percent change): 2023: 13.9; 2024: 14.1; 2025: 11.9; 2026 Proj.: 9.0; 2027 Proj.: 8.0 - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -7.3; 2024: -4.7; 2025: -3.9; 2026 Proj.: -3.2; 2027 Proj.: -3.6 - External debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 50.8; 2024: 53.1; 2025: 54.2; 2026 Proj.: 51.8; 2027 Proj.: 49.5 - Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period): 2023: 12,339; 2024: 12,920; 2025: 12,025 - Real effective exchange rate (ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation): 2023: 59.9; 2024: 56.9; 2025: 58.7 - Consolidated budget revenues (percent of GDP): 2023: 25.6; 2024: 25.2; 2025: 27.2; 2026 Proj.: 28.2; 2027 Proj.: 27.7 - Consolidated budget expenditures (percent of GDP): 2023: 30.2; 2024: 28.1; 2025: 29.3; 2026 Proj.: 29.7 - Consolidated budget balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -4.6; 2024: -3.0; 2025: -2.1; 2026 Proj.: -1.5; 2027 Proj.: -2.0 - Adjusted revenues 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 24.8; 2024: 24.2; 2025: 25.7; 2026 Proj.: 26.7; 2027 Proj.: 26.3 - Adjusted expenditures 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 28.6; 2024: 27.4; 2025: 27.5; 2026 Proj.: 27.5 - Adjusted fiscal balance 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: -3.8; 2024: -1.6; 2025: -0.7; 2026 Proj.: -1.1 - Policy lending 3/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 0.8; 2024: 0.9; 2025: 0.5 - Public debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 30.7; 2024: 30.9 - Reserve money (percent change): 2023: 4.9; 2024: 9.5; 2025: 23.2; 2026 Proj.: 11.0 - Broad money (percent change): 2023: 12.2; 2024: 30.6; 2025: 36.6; 2026 Proj.: 18.4; 2027 Proj.: 15.4 - Credit to the economy (percent change): 2023: 14.0; 2024: 15.3; 2025: 16.7; 2026 Proj.: 15.7 *Source: Press Release No. 26/214, June 18, 2026, IMF Communications Department.* --- ## References - [Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UZB/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [www.imf.org/Uzbekistan](http://www.imf.org/Uzbekistan) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/18/pr-26214-uzbekistan-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation_