{ "title": "Mongolia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission", "publication": "IMF News, June 26, 2026", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission/index.md", "summary": "Washington, DC – June 26 2026: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff mission, led by Mr. Tahsin Saadi Sedik, held discussions as part of the 2026 Article IV consultation with the Mongolian authorities in Ulaanbaatar during June 10–23, 2026.", "publishDate": "2026-06-26", "sections": [ { "heading": "Mission context", "content": "- IMF staff mission led by Mr. Tahsin Saadi Sedik held Article IV discussions with Mongolian authorities in Ulaanbaatar during June 10–23, 2026.\n- The authorities consented to publication; views are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the IMF’s Executive Board." }, { "heading": "Recent economic developments", "content": "- Growth and activity\n - Growth remained strong in 2025, underpinned by a rebound in agriculture and robust mining activity.\n - Strong growth continued in early 2026, mainly driven by buoyant mining activity; non-mining growth was subdued.\n- Inflation, credit, exchange rate, and reserves\n - Inflation rose for a third month in a row, driven by surging food and energy prices, breaking the downward trend since November 2025.\n - Inflation reached 11.2 percent in May 2026 (monthly data reference).\n - Credit growth moderated to about 17 percent in May 2026.\n - Exchange rate remained broadly stable since April 2025.\n - Gross international reserves increased to $7.4 billion in early June 2026, though remaining below the IMF’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy metric.\n- Fiscal pressures and sovereign outlook\n - Lower coal prices in 2025 contributed to fiscal pressures.\n - Authorities responded to 2025 mining revenue shortfalls by tightening spending execution, resorting to tax prepayments, collecting tax arrears, postponing expenditure payments, and using the Fiscal Stability Fund.\n - Rating agencies have upgraded Mongolia’s sovereign credit rating and spreads have declined." }, { "heading": "Outlook and risks", "content": "- Staff baseline projections\n - GDP growth is projected to reach 5.8 percent in 2026.\n - Inflation is projected at 10 percent in 2026, driven by high food and fuel prices.\n - The fiscal balance is expected to deteriorate in 2026, reflecting wage increases and front-loaded, expedited execution of the two mega projects that have been excluded from fiscal rules.\n - Under staff’s baseline, the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework is expected to assess Mongolia’s sovereign risk as moderate, in line with the 2025 assessment.\n- Key downside risks\n - Political pressures to reduce non-mining taxation and increase current spending (notably higher wages across other public sectors and higher pensions), and draw down fiscal buffers.\n - External risks: heightened geopolitical tensions (including spillovers from the Middle East conflict and Russia’s war in Ukraine), and uncertainty surrounding Chinese coal demand and commodity prices.\n- Vulnerabilities\n - Vulnerabilities remain elevated, with risks tilted to the downside." }, { "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations — Fiscal", "content": "- Overriding priority: safeguard fiscal sustainability and reduce vulnerabilities amid costly new policy proposals.\n- Supplementary budget\n - Submit a supplementary budget to Parliament that includes the full impact of salary increases for teachers and healthcare workers and expands borrowing ceilings needed to finance the expected deficit.\n - Aim to avoid cash shortages that could trigger unconventional, one-off revenue measures.\n- Revenue and spending stance\n - Reconsider plans to lower non-mining taxes.\n - The decision to reverse the expansion of VAT rebates from 2 to 5 percent is welcome.\n - Prioritize streamlining tax incentives, collecting tax arrears, and implementing tax and customs administration reforms.\n - Streamline and target social spending rather than pursue broad tax cuts.\n - Fiscal measures in response to higher fuel prices should be temporary and well targeted, while preserving price signals.\n- Pensions\n - Pension reforms should not jeopardize fiscal sustainability; components of the proposed pension reform package are estimated at about 1.3 percent of GDP annually in fiscal cost.\n- Public financial management and fiscal transparency\n - Strengthen the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework with greater granularity and realism.\n - Improve governance of mining funds, revive the domestic government securities market, and adopt a strategy to monitor and reduce fiscal risks.\n - Upgrade state-owned enterprises governance and oversight; mitigate contingent liabilities from public-private partnerships; enhance coordination with subnational entities; address the Development Bank of Mongolia’s balance sheet and governance issues.\n - The exclusion of the two mega projects from fiscal rules requires reporting that follows good international practices." }, { "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations — Monetary, FX, and financial sector", "content": "- Monetary policy stance\n - The Bank of Mongolia (BOM) should stand ready to tighten if food and fuel price shocks elevate risks of unanchored inflation expectations and second-round effects.\n - Monetary policy should remain tight.\n- BOM governance and operations\n - Amendments to the BOM Law are critical to enhance the bank’s mandate, autonomy, governance, and capital position; these amendments should be finalized and submitted to Parliament.\n - Relieve the BOM from conducting quasi-fiscal operations; the government should proceed with the stalled takeover of the BOM’s subsidized mortgage program, with subsidies transparently reflected in the budget.\n - Consider establishment of a mortgage bank, guided by good international practices.\n - Pursue greater exchange rate flexibility by phasing out the BOM’s role as the main provider of FX and hedging instruments, and accumulate reserves when conditions permit.\n- Macroprudential and financial stability\n - Strengthen the macroprudential framework: expand BOM’s macroprudential toolkit and enhance coordination with the Financial Regulatory Commission.\n - Continue progress in risk-based supervision, and reform credit information, insolvency, and resolution frameworks to enhance financial sector resilience.\n - Notable welcome steps: BOM convening dedicated Monetary Policy Committee meetings focused on financial stability and macroprudential issues, and establishment of a new Financial Stability Department." }, { "heading": "Structural reforms", "content": "- Priorities to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth\n - Improve the business environment to support investment and attract FDI.\n - Strengthen governance and anti-corruption frameworks, and the rule of law.\n - Move toward a more diversified and private sector-led growth model.\n- Key legislative reforms needed\n - Revised Foreign Investment Law, Insolvency Law, amendments to the SOE Law and the Minerals Law, and the draft Whistleblower Law." }, { "heading": "Selected key statistics (preserving source figures)", "content": "- Growth and prices\n - Real GDP growth (percent change): 2023: 7.4; 2024: 5.1; 2025: 6.8; 2026 (proj): 5.8; 2027 (proj): 5.6; 2028 (proj): 5.2; 2029 (proj): 5.0.\n - Consumer Prices (Avg; percent change): 2023: 10.4; 2024: 6.2; 2025: 8.6; 2026 (proj): 9.5; 2027 (proj): 7.2; 2028 (proj): 6.7.\n - Inflation reached 11.2 percent in May 2026 (text reference).\n- External sector and reserves\n - Gross international reserves (in USD million): 2023: 4,922; 2024: 5,510; 2025: 7,005; 2026 (proj): 7,283; 2027 (proj): 7,286; 2028 (proj): 7,268; 2029 (proj): 7,248; 2030 (proj): 7,276; 2031 (proj): 7,273.\n - Gross international reserves increased to $7.4 billion in early June 2026 (text reference).\n - Net international reserves (NIR) (USD million): 2023: 1,152; 2024: 1,768; 2025: 3,326.\n - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: 0.6; 2024: -8.4; 2025: -4.7; 2026 (proj): -4.9; 2027 (proj): -5.5; 2028 (proj): -6.2; 2029 (proj): -7.3; 2030 (proj): -7.7.\n- Fiscal sector (percent of GDP)\n - Primary balance (IMF definition): 2023: 4.3; 2024: 3.2; 2025: -0.7; 2026 (proj): -2.8; 2027 (proj): -3.3; 2028 (proj): -3.2.\n - Total revenue and grants: 2023: 34.6; 2024: 38.9; 2025: 36.3; 2026 (proj): 31.9; 2027 (proj): 30.4; 2028 (proj): 29.0; 2029 (proj): 28.8; 2030 (proj): 28.9.\n - Primary expenditure and net lending: 2023: 30.3; 2024: 36.2; 2025: 33.1; 2026 (proj): 32.5; 2027 (proj): 33.2; 2028 (proj): 32.4; 2029 (proj): 32.2.\n - Overall balance (IMF definition): 2023: 1.3; 2024: -2.6; 2025: -5.0; 2026 (proj): -5.8; 2027 (proj): -6.1; 2028 (proj): -6.5.\n - Non-mineral primary balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -8.8; 2024: -5.6; 2025: -8.5; 2026 (proj): -10.4; 2027 (proj): -10.5; 2028 (proj): -10.1; 2029 (proj): -9.9; 2030 (proj): -9.7.\n - Gross financing needs (percent of GDP): 2023: 4.7; 2024: 3.0; 2025: 5.5; 2026 (proj): 9.1; 2027 (proj): 11.9; 2028 (proj): 12.3; 2029 (proj): 14.1; 2030 (proj): 17.4.\n - General government debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 46.7; 2024: 44.1; 2025: 45.1; 2026 (proj): 47.3; 2027 (proj): 50.6; 2028 (proj): 54.2; 2029 (proj): 57.4; 2030 (proj): 62.0.\n- Commodities (US$ per ton)\n - Copper prices: 2023: 8,491; 2024: 9,142; 2025: 9,947; 2026 (proj): 13,527; 2027 (proj): 13,889; 2028 (proj): 13,837; 2029 (proj): 13,805; 2030 (proj): 13,801; 2031 (proj): 13,814.\n - Bituminous coal prices: 2023: 131.4; 2024: 107.3; 2025: 66.5; 2026 (proj): 73.4; 2027 (proj): 79.2; 2028 (proj): 76.3; 2029 (proj): 76.4.\n- Monetary sector\n - Broad money growth (percent change): 2023: 24.2; 2024: 10.6; 2025: 20.3; 2026 (proj): 17.5; 2027 (proj): 12.8; 2028 (proj): 12.4; 2029 (proj): 12.1.\n - Credit growth (percent change): 2023: 22.0; 2024: 19.8; 2025: 17.0; 2026 (proj): 16.4; 2027 (proj): 15.0; 2028 (proj): 13.8; 2029 (proj): 13.1.\n\nSource: IMF staff concluding statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission to Mongolia (June 26, 2026).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Mcs062626 Mng Mongolia 2026 Concluding Statement Article Iv Consultation\n - Mcs062626 Mng Mongolia 2026 Concluding Statement Article Iv Consultation (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Mcs062626 Mng Mongolia 2026 Concluding Statement Article Iv Consultation (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Mongolia and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Mission Concluding Statements\n- PRESS CENTER\n- Article IV\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: June 26, 2026", "IMF staff mission led by Mr. Tahsin Saadi Sedik held Article IV discussions with Mongolian authorities in Ulaanbaatar during June 10–23, 2026.", "The authorities consented to publication; views are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the IMF’s Executive Board.", "Growth and activity", "Inflation, credit, exchange rate, and reserves", "Fiscal pressures and sovereign outlook", "Staff baseline projections", "Key downside risks", "Vulnerabilities", "Overriding priority: safeguard fiscal sustainability and reduce vulnerabilities amid costly new policy proposals.", "Supplementary budget", "Revenue and spending stance", "Pensions", "Public financial management and fiscal transparency", "Monetary policy stance", "BOM governance and operations", "Macroprudential and financial stability", "Priorities to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth", "Key legislative reforms needed", "Growth and prices", "External sector and reserves", "Fiscal sector (percent of GDP)", "Commodities (US$ per ton)", "Monetary sector", "**Mcs062626 Mng Mongolia 2026 Concluding Statement Article Iv Consultation**", "[Mongolia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/MNG/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Mission Concluding Statements](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[Article IV](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/index.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Mcs062626 Mng Mongolia 2026 Concluding Statement Article Iv Consultation", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/news/press-release/2026/mcs062626-mng-mongolia-2026-concluding-statement-article-iv-consultation.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/news/press-release/2026/mcs062626-mng-mongolia-2026-concluding-statement-article-iv-consultation.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/news/press-release/2026/mcs062626-mng-mongolia-2026-concluding-statement-article-iv-consultation.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2026/06/26/mcs062626-mongolia-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2026-article-iv-mission/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:46:04.462Z" }